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March 17-18 Severe Weather Event


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Just now, PackGrad05 said:

What do you mean by better?  Better for creating severe weather or better as in less severe weather?

Better for severe weather, should have clarified that. The LLJ looks a good bit stronger with cleaner hodographs. 

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2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Not sure what I’m missing, but soundings tomorrow night look pretty darn impressive for severe weather.

I think the main question is storm mode.  CAMS seem to be trending toward a classic southeastern US "grunge fest" with widespread nonsupercellular convection in the warm sector, and a QLCS along the front.  This could therefore pan out like 5-20-19 in the plains, with an impressive environment but a lack of tornadic supercells.

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I would argue that, by that morning 27 April 2011, the SPC had upgraded parts of the "High Risk" areas to an "Exceptionally High Risk," adding in the 45% contour gave that event a 6/5. So, remove 27 Apr 11 Superoutbreak from the "Regular" High Risk days and then compare the rest of the High Risk events.

 

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3 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

I wondered the same thing.  Better isn’t better if you’re filing an homeowner’s insurance claim.  I guess it’s “better” for the voyeurs.

Pretty obvious. Referencing “better”  for storm chasing.

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Just now, Wmsptwx said:

Thinking they upgrade to high risk on Day 1,, all the ingredients are there.

Strongly worded AFD from BMX, mentions violent tornadoes. To me this indicates they are going to be coordinating with the SPC and thinking a High Risk.

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2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Thinking they upgrade to high risk on Day 1,, all the ingredients are there.

The day 2 disco from earlier today mentioned that if models remained consistent they'd pull a 06z Day 1 high risk. I think they get there, just wonder where they draw the bullseye.

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Just now, Upper Level LOL said:

The day 2 disco from earlier today mentioned that if models remained consistent they'd pull a 06z Day 1 high risk. I think they get there, just wonder where they draw the bullseye.

Triangulate from Jackson up to Memphis, extending east towards B'ham? Maybe? 

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I posted for this for my family in W TN

 

Anyone living south of Tupelo MS to just north of Montgomery Al could see EF4-F5 size tornadoes. The last few years I have personally called this area the nation's  DTT---- "Deadly Tornadic Triangle"  because so many EF3-5 tornadoes have occurred in this specific triangular location in the late winter and early spring period, especially in the last 25+ years.  These large wedge shaped tornadoes usually form in rapidly converging renegade supercells 50-150 miles out ahead of the actual cold front traveling in a SW to NE direction and being capable of having actual funnels of one and half miles wide and remaining on the ground for long periods of time. They usually spin up in the late afternoon to a few hours after sunset.  

 
I would also not be at all surprised to see the NWS actually issue the  rare "Tornado Emergencies" which means a destructive EF-2 or greater tornado is actually on the ground.  Remember where you heard this first --from me.  No one in the media will tell you this because they are not true meteorologists.  The shear factors are going to be unbelievable in places, Nobody else is saying this right now.  Also, you may hear the media mention about debris balls, which occur in these types of wedge tornadoes and can be easily seen on the radar as a dark purple or red color.  See this link  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_emergency#:~:text=Although%20it%20is%20not%20a,a%20large%2C%20strong%20to%20violent
 
Even though the Memphis metro area will most likely not be  placed in this high risk area tomorrow,  I would not rule out any threat of a major tornado in the mid south region. Jackson Tn seems to be the magnet for this upcoming type of storm formation for tornado development in the last 20 years.

 

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Rule of thumb .. closed upper lows that close in the west and then move east are never historic outbreaks . There is always some issue that prevents it . Systems that eject and then close off near the wark sector result in outbreaks. Also broad troughs with no closed lows are preferred even more .

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Just now, wizard021 said:

Rule of thumb .. closed upper lows that close in the west and then move east are never historic outbreaks . There is always some issue that prevents it . Systems that eject and then close off near the wark sector result in outbreaks. Also broad troughs with no closed lows are preferred even more .

However a localized notable event can occur .

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24 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

I posted for this for my family in W TN

 

Anyone living south of Tupelo MS to just north of Montgomery Al could see EF4-F5 size tornadoes. The last few years I have personally called this area the nation's  DTT---- "Deadly Tornadic Triangle"  because so many EF3-5 tornadoes have occurred in this specific triangular location in the late winter and early spring period, especially in the last 25+ years.  These large wedge shaped tornadoes usually form in rapidly converging renegade supercells 50-150 miles out ahead of the actual cold front traveling in a SW to NE direction and being capable of having actual funnels of one and half miles wide and remaining on the ground for long periods of time. They usually spin up in the late afternoon to a few hours after sunset.  

 
I would also not be at all surprised to see the NWS actually issue the  rare "Tornado Emergencies" which means a destructive EF-2 or greater tornado is actually on the ground.  Remember where you heard this first --from me.  No one in the media will tell you this because they are not true meteorologists.  The shear factors are going to be unbelievable in places, Nobody else is saying this right now.  Also, you may hear the media mention about debris balls, which occur in these types of wedge tornadoes and can be easily seen on the radar as a dark purple or red color.  See this link  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_emergency#:~:text=Although%20it%20is%20not%20a,a%20large%2C%20strong%20to%20violent
 
Even though the Memphis metro area will most likely not be  placed in this high risk area tomorrow,  I would not rule out any threat of a major tornado in the mid south region. Jackson Tn seems to be the magnet for this upcoming type of storm formation for tornado development in the last 20 years.

 

This is needlessly scaremongering and doesn't fit the parameters we see. We're going to see a lot of low-end tornadoes since the warm sector has essentially no cap. This will prevent bigger storms from firing. The threat of tomorrow aren't EF4-EF5s, but a firehose of EF2's and EF3's. I hope your reputation among your friends and family doesn't suffer from crying wolf about this.

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It's probably a bit early for definitive statements one way or the other. The severe parameters are fairly stout and storm mode (as well as other mesoscale features) likely won't be resolved till tomorrow. 

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37 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

No. Messy storm mode with storms struggling . By dark 1 or 2 will get sustained and deliver bad results though. 

Doesn’t matter how messy the mode is when the LCLs are scraping the ground and sheer is high, especially once the LLJ kicks in after dark

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11 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said:

This is needlessly scaremongering and doesn't fit the parameters we see. We're going to see a lot of low-end tornadoes since the warm sector has essentially no cap. This will prevent bigger storms from firing. The threat of tomorrow aren't EF4-EF5s, but a firehose of EF2's and EF3's. I hope your reputation among your friends and family doesn't suffer from crying wolf about this.

I don’t know how many EF3 tornadoes in a metro area you have worked but several EF 3 tornadoes is not crying wolf. Very significant threat with nighttime tornadoes irregardless of ultimate ratings. 

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4 minutes ago, OKTWISTER said:

I don’t know how many EF3 tornadoes in a metro area you have worked but several EF 3 tornadoes is not crying wolf. Very significant threat with nighttime tornadoes irregardless of ultimate ratings. 

Oh I agree Wednesday is a super serious threat. I was just more highlighting that Albedoman’s jeremiad about EF4-EF5s this far out is kinda irresponsible (and his definition of tornado emergencies is incomplete).

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2 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said:

Oh I agree Wednesday is a super serious threat. I was just more highlighting that Albedoman’s jeremiad about EF4-EF5s this far out is kinda irresponsible (and his definition of tornado emergencies is incomplete).

Agree! I would honestly say throwing out predicted numbers and intensities is altogether, irresponsible. Just the fact that alot of this event will occur in the evening/overnight makes it a very dangerous situation. 

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