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2021 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier
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11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

A few tor warned supercells in S WI now, though north of the southward moving OFB.

Of course, the minute I write off that sort of potential for the day and stop paying attention. Western one has the usual problem of being in awful terrain. It momentarily had a "flying eagle" reflectivity signature, but doesn't look quite as good on the most recent scan. I've also noticed RadarScope's color scale really overcooks the velocities compared to GR Level 3.

Could see a brief touchdown out of one of these, perhaps something similar to what happened near Mineral Point on the 11th.

 

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4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Unless you guys think that there's actually a chance those supercells stay supercells long enough for me to drive up there, which I doubt

A nice thing about chasing a setup like this is that even if all the supercells crap out, you'll still get treated to a nice MCS at the end of the chase. Point your car into the wind and enjoy

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Today has definitely been an interesting setup that relied 100% on nowcasting. In aviation we try to come up with a convective forecast that helps the FAA plan routes in and out of the area (mainly for ORD) - been one of the lower confidence days of the summer given zero model support. 

If you read through all of LOT's AFDs today, you'll see how the forecast has been evolving back and forth as conditions change. At one point we thought the dry air observed on the 12Z OAX sounding would inhibit TS this far south, but it seems to me the corn belt helped with moisture flux from the surface up to the 925-800mb level. This all resulted in MLCAPE rapidly increasing this afternoon (which the NAM has done well with despite mostly missing the actual wx).

Definitely not the best time to be flying into O'Hare today.

838705760_ScreenShot2021-08-24at6_44_55PM.thumb.png.8186669423690a6ecca9256bc429ec37.png

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I am wondering if these multiple t storm clusters will morph into more of an east-west oriented band later this evening along the OFB and would produce training of heavy rains.  Maybe I am just reacting to what happened in TN although I don't expect anything near that amount of precip.

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22 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Today has definitely been an interesting setup that relied 100% on nowcasting. In aviation we try to come up with a convective forecast that helps the FAA plan routes in and out of the area (mainly for ORD) - been one of the lower confidence days of the summer given zero model support. 

If you read through all of LOT's AFDs today, you'll see how the forecast has been evolving back and forth as conditions change. At one point we thought the dry air observed on the 12Z OAX sounding would inhibit TS this far south, but it seems to me the corn belt helped with moisture flux from the surface up to the 925-800mb level. This all resulted in MLCAPE rapidly increasing this afternoon (which the NAM has done well with despite mostly missing the actual wx).

Definitely not the best time to be flying into O'Hare today.

838705760_ScreenShot2021-08-24at6_44_55PM.thumb.png.8186669423690a6ecca9256bc429ec37.png

4 MCSs in 1 image, all along the same boundary. Very impressive.

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