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2021 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier
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It looks to me like some westward expansion may be needed on the upcoming day 1 outlook.  I also think higher wind probabilities are in order.  As others have mentioned, mode looks primarily linear, but certainly a nonzero tornado threat with these shear profiles.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

It looks to me like some westward expansion may be needed on the upcoming day 1 outlook.  I also think higher wind probabilities are in order.  As others have mentioned, mode looks primarily linear, but certainly a nonzero tornado threat with these shear profiles.

New Day 1 is pretty much unchanged from Day 2 except to trim the tornado probs and expand 15% wind back to Chicago and extreme NW Indiana

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11 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

tennis-ball-sized hail in WI in the general thunder outlook (one unconfirmed photo showing a stone 3"+). 12Z soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates of 7-8.5C/km. shear 40-50KT+.

pretty good indication to me the outlook is underplaying today.

Seems like this kind of thing only happens in WI on the low-key outlook days. Enhanced/moderate risk with hatched area for hail and we don't see this.

That said, it seems the upper Midwest in general rarely gets really large hail events, even with our tornadic supercells (not like in the way that the Plains does). Which is fine with me, since I'm not looking to lose my windshield on a chase.

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tennis-ball-sized hail in WI in the general thunder outlook (one unconfirmed photo showing a stone 3"+). 12Z soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates of 7-8.5C/km. shear 40-50KT+.
pretty good indication to me the outlook is underplaying today.

Time for me to SPC hate again (Easy to do when content is just handed to us)...

Most definitely is/was a bad outlook. Everything from last night suggested a slight was needed well into WI (And even further into IL).

What’s worse is they double downed with a 20% watch probability MD at 9:15AM, and stated the threat was only “isolated”, when numerous warnings and widespread hail has occurred.


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8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Time for me to SPC hate again (Easy to do when content is just handed to us)...

Most definitely is/was a bad outlook. Everything from last night suggested a slight was needed well into WI (And even further into IL).

What’s worse is they double downed with a 20% watch probability MD at 9:15AM, and stated the threat was only “isolated”, when numerous warnings and widespread hail has occurred.


.

Do they just stop paying attention after the summer solstice?

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41 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Time for me to SPC hate again (Easy to do when content is just handed to us)...

Most definitely is/was a bad outlook. Everything from last night suggested a slight was needed well into WI (And even further into IL).

What’s worse is they double downed with a 20% watch probability MD at 9:15AM, and stated the threat was only “isolated”, when numerous warnings and widespread hail has occurred.


.

I thought Roger Edwards put out a top notch outlook this morning (as usual), but I also see what you are saying about underplaying the threat.

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