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2021 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier
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ARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE  
304 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  WEST CENTRAL WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 330 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 303 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NORTH OF MINOOKA, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  JOLIET AND ELWOOD AROUND 310 PM CDT.  
  CREST HILL AROUND 315 PM CDT.  
  NEW LENOX, MANHATTAN AND INGALLS PARK AROUND 320 PM CDT.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
ORLAND PARK, TINLEY PARK, MOKENA, FRANKFORT AND FRANKFORT SQUARE.  
  
THIS INCLUDES...  UNIVERSITY OF ST. FRANCIS, CHANNAHON STATE PARK,  
CHICAGOLAND SPEEDWAY...ROUTE 66 RACEWAY, JOLIET JUNIOR COLLEGE, AND  
JOLIET SLAMMERS BASEBALL.  
   

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
317 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 E LISBON              41.47N 88.42W
09/07/2021  M72 MPH          KENDALL            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

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AT 343 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEECHER TO NEAR GRANT PARK TO AROMA PARK, MOVING   
EAST AT 55 MPH. THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THESE STORMS ARE MOVING   
TOWARD CEDAR LAKE AND LOWELL, INDIANA.  
  
HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED POWERLINES DOWN NEAR   
         MANHATTAN, ILLINOIS.  
 

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7 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:


Time for me to SPC hate again (Easy to do when content is just handed to us)...

Most definitely is/was a bad outlook. Everything from last night suggested a slight was needed well into WI (And even further into IL).

What’s worse is they double downed with a 20% watch probability MD at 9:15AM, and stated the threat was only “isolated”, when numerous warnings and widespread hail has occurred.


.

They were given 4 chances to be right and only went 15% on the 5th when the hail was pretty much done. It was very easy to see this had a good hail potential, ML lapse rates forecast to be around 8 and verified 8.3 on DVN's sounding this morning, with good shear, and cape density mostly rooted above the freezing level. It was a bad forecast from several forecasters.

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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
900 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021

MIZ063-068>070-075-076-080400-
/O.NEW.KDTX.HW.W.0001.210908T0100Z-210908T0400Z/
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-
Including the cities of Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren,
Ann Arbor, and Detroit
900 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Southwest winds of 40 to 50 mph with some gusts to 60 mph.

* WHERE...St. Clair, Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw and
  Wayne Counties.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...National Weather Service doppler radar has
  been observing a narrow corridor of strong wind development
  behind the trailing back edge of the shower and thunderstorm
  activity. Power outages have been reported.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.
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Looking ahead... :ph34r:

Quote
By Mon/Day 6, a more amplified upper pattern may emerge as a trough
digs across the western U.S. As this occurs, a lee surface trough
should develop over the High Plains. This will aid in stronger
southerly return flow, and moisture will begin overspreading the
Plains into the Midwest. Severe potential may increase as the
western trough ejects eastward through the end of the forecast
period. However, medium-range guidance varies considerably with the
timing of the larger-scale trough ejecting eastward as well as in
the strength of the trough. As such, predictability is too low for
severe probs at this time.

August decided to act like May for us, so Sept. gonna act like June? I'm all for it.

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Regarding next Monday, 18Z GFS took a big nosedive with verbatim regional severe potential vs. 12Z, but the pieces are there. It's just a question of will they come together and where?

Edit: For reference, a 12Z forecast sounding for a point not far from the 8/9 tornadofest, if not a tad further east/uncomfortably close to the Chicago 'burbs.

gfs_2021090812_129_41.5--88.0.png

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09/0Z GFS holds serve, although soundings aren't that impressive the synoptic pieces are there with a surface low near the WI/IA/IL confluence at 21Z Monday afternoon and a belt of spring-like 40-50kt WSW-SW flow at 500mb.

 

Edit: On the 06Z, the area of most interest is moved north into WI, beautiful shear profile along the warm front but the capping looks stout at 21Z.

 

gfs_2021090906_111_43.5--88.75.png

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9 hours ago, Torchageddon said:

Most incredible bow echo I've seen ripping through extreme SON currently:

 

I also had my 13th storm of 2021 this morning, not forecast whatsoever. The last 7 days have been nothing short of wild here, total reversal from the last 5 years of BS!!

Strong Bow Echo TWN Radar Sep 12 2021 8.png

Yeah, observing from afar, the Detroit area over into SW Ontario has had quite the severe weather season this year.

Frankly, given the dearth of severe weather here in Dallas this year, I'm kind of jealous (never thought I'd say that).

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Incoming for the Detroit area...

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
MIC093-125-155-131815-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0121.210913T1719Z-210913T1815Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
119 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southwestern Oakland County in southeastern Michigan...
  Southern Shiawassee County in southeastern Michigan...
  Livingston County in southeastern Michigan...

* Until 215 PM EDT.

* At 119 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Fowlerville,
  moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Fowlerville around 125 PM EDT.
  Howell, Cohoctah and Oak Grove around 135 PM EDT.
  Hartland and Brighton around 150 PM EDT.
  Milford and South Lyon around 200 PM EDT.
  Novi around 215 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
Plainfield, Island Lake State Recreation Area, Commerce, New Hudson,
Rose Center, Walled Lake, Conway Township, Parkers Corners, Lakeland
and White Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4283 8436 4280 8392 4278 8392 4278 8375
      4273 8345 4244 8343 4243 8414 4277 8416
      4277 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 281DEG 37KT 4268 8416

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

KDK
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