Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,800
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Doug747
    Newest Member
    Doug747
    Joined

March Long Range Discussion


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

March has been a bona fide winter storm month in recent years. And not even like the bold section - like actual accumulation events. If we can luck our way into that - I'd take a few inches of snow (even if it melts quickly) over a 70 degree day. 

To each their own and all, but come on...

:lol:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

I think you meant to say Nino here. I don't think we have enough of a sample size to say changes in Ocean temps/Pac jet has completely overwhelmed the characteristic impacts ENSO state has on our weather patterns. That is arguable at this juncture. 2015-2016 isn't that long ago and the outcome of that winter was very much on par with a strong Nino- warm overall but one 2-week colder period with some blocking produced a KU. The results of winter of 2017-18 was in alignment with the character of a Nina for the MA. The last few years the 'expected' ENSO-atmospheric coupling has been muted/overwhelmed by other factors like the MJO. One of those years, 2018-19 I think, the Nino got going late and ended up being diffuse/undefined, and the atmospheric response was minimal. This sort of result may or may not be an indication of things to come. We cant know yet.

I did mean nino. I’m not saying enso effects are permanently muted. I’m just saying when the current pac pattern has persisted for 5 years through varying enso states it’s obviously not simply enso causing it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

March has been a bona fide winter storm month in recent years. And not even like the bold section - like actual accumulation events. If we can luck our way into that - I'd take a few inches of snow (even if it melts quickly) over a 70 degree day. 

Yeah, I realize we've had legit March snows over the last 10 years in DC, but hard to argue with seasonal trends this winter.  I'd wager if the area sees a winter storm in March, it'd be 37 degree rain in DC.  I'll pass on that for spring weather.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yeah, I realize we've had legit March snows over the last 10 years in DC, but hard to argue with seasonal trends this winter.  I'd wager if the area sees a winter storm in March, it'd be 37 degree rain in DC.  I'll pass on that for spring weather.

Yeah 37 and rain sounds miserable. Well so does 33 and rain ;) - if we can somehow luck our way into a few inches before we sprint into spring, I'm all for it. Didn't mean to come across as argumentative before (if I did). I'm mostly on the same train as you - but I just love pushing back any sustained heat as long as we can. Summer is long enough here! 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Pac yes, enso imo not as much anymore because I’m not convinced the pac pattern is driven by enso. It’s been identical for 5 years through 2 ninos, 2 Nina’s, and a neutral year. Hard to argue that is enso driven!  Is the pac a problem though regardless of what’s causing it, most definitely yes. 
 

Besides we can’t simply blame the Nina for ruining the -NAO. Nina history says that’s not accurate.  Nina -NAO months in Jan Feb and March have actually been snowier then all other enso state -NAO months.  Problem is a -NAO is rare in a Nina. This year was more the exception then the rule both in having a -NAO Nina and completely wasting it. 
 

BTW side note: the one exception is obviously moderate to strong Nina’s with a -NAO. That’s the gold standard.  Those are when we get crushed with snow. Yes a -NAO still correlated to more snow in other states but if you take weak Nina’s, enso neutral, and Nina’s while a -NAO does favor more snow then normal the numbers aren’t crazy big.  And Nina’s actually has better -NAO avg snowfall then neutrals and weak ninos. Small sample size though since there aren’t that many -NAO Nina months. 

This made me chuckle:

 Trending Up. La Nina Conditions for Winter 2016-2017 - WeatherNation

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If it’s gonna be a 25 degree storm with 4+“ of snow, sign me up. If it’s a 32 degree storm that immediately shoots to 40 as soon as it stops, then give me today. It’s extremely nice outside.

Agree.  And you should enjoy today.  Many of us couldn’t get a 25 degree storm with 4 inches all winter.  No reason to think that changes in March.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If it’s gonna be a 25 degree storm with 4+“ of snow, sign me up. If it’s a 32 degree storm that immediately shoots to 40 as soon as it stops, then give me today. It’s extremely nice outside.

but you're thinking about it the wrong way...there is going to be a storm there either way.  It's not going to be 60 degrees and sunny.  What if your choices are 32 and snow that quickly melts or a 40 degree rainy day.  Think of it that way and its different.  

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

but you're thinking about it the wrong way...there is going to be a storm there either way.  It's not going to be 60 degrees and sunny.  What if your choices are 32 and snow that quickly melts or a 40 degree rainy day.  Think of it that way and its different.  

I’d rather have the 40 degree rainy day. At that point I’m not saying “what if” or “I wish ...”. Remember my screen name is Winter weather lover. Drip, drip, drip is depressing for me. I like frozen, frozen, frozen LOL. When there’s no snow and no chance for snow it’s easier psychologically.

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Meh idc if it’s 90 degrees before or after the storm. Give me a foot of snow in July and I’m happy. Snow falling and accumulating is what I follow this hobby for. Snow cover in March will still melt even if it’s below freezing with the sun angle. Today’s eps total snow members. Not much to be excited about I guess...the cmc has probably the best looking pattern around day 9-10

8FFCB4F6-7000-42B4-8A0C-9E535D6878DF.png

0A8746BE-1652-4A3C-9865-55536C135DFE.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Cmc was interesting at the end of the run. Strong cold front out east with decent energy out west, but idk. I feel like there’s a chance mid month on but we’ll see

Better chance of Wentz playing for the Eagles next year

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Ji said:
16 hours ago, Deck Pic said:
This was fun...I think IAD got 5" in 3-4 hours...

IAD,1984-03-08 22:16,KIAD 082216Z 34015G23KT 1/4SM +TSSNPL OVC002 A2987 RMK R01RVR06V18 TB12 OVHD-S MOVG E LTGICCG SLPNO
 

 

I remember that

me too.  It was puking snow with thunder and lightning.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Do you know that we are at a record now of cold 10mb

10mb9065.png

It usually goes right to +AO, no lag. 

I’m glad this happened in March  Instead of happening in January  And the diagram that you’re presenting it also coincide when we had a negative a AO -3 to -4  at Times

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Meh idc if it’s 90 degrees before or after the storm. Give me a foot of snow in July and I’m happy. Snow falling and accumulating is what I follow this hobby for. Snow cover in March will still melt even if it’s below freezing with the sun angle. Today’s eps total snow members. Not much to be excited about I guess...the cmc has probably the best looking pattern around day 9-10

8FFCB4F6-7000-42B4-8A0C-9E535D6878DF.png

0A8746BE-1652-4A3C-9865-55536C135DFE.png

Give me 15 or 26 and we can move on to spring.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Dabuckeyes said:

Or Jason Garrett coaching for the Cowboys

 

4 hours ago, Yeoman said:

That too! He'll still be clapping, though

Small world...

Serious here...no joke, but I knew Jason Garrett long ago.  He went to my high school in the Cleveland, OH area (University School).  He was a year ahead of me.  His younger brother was in my grade and also played football.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

me too.  It was puking snow with thunder and lightning.

That must have been the same clipper-type storm that I remember we got in Ohio on March 8, 1984.  Largest accumulation I ever saw from a clipper, we got 8" and it was in the teens that day.  That was a great couple of weeks in the area.  After a mostly very mild February, it turned much cold near the end of the month through March, then we got hammered by a big storm Feb 27-29, 1984 (16" snow!), followed by that clipper on Mar. 8.  The record lows for the following couple of days (Mar. 9 and 10, 1984...including -5 on the 9th) still stand.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

spring and summer are vile.  Want cold as long as possible.  who wants to sweat in March?  disgusting

I definitely hate Summer temps above 90/70. I'm use to it all these years working in it but each year I dislike it that much more . I've worked outside with highs in the low teens and starting the day with below 0 . Ill take that over big heat every single time . 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

That must have been the same clipper-type storm that I remember we got in Ohio on March 8, 1984.  Largest accumulation I ever saw from a clipper, we got 8" and it was in the teens that day.  That was a great couple of weeks in the area.  After a mostly very mild February, it turned much cold near the end of the month through March, then we got hammered by a big storm Feb 27-29, 1984 (16" snow!), followed by that clipper on Mar. 8.  The record lows for the following couple of days (Mar. 9 and 10, 1984...including -5 on the 9th) still stand.

it was a clipper...put down some 10" plus totals just to our northeast as it developed along the coast.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

I definitely hate Summer temps above 90/70. I'm use to it all these years working in it but each year I dislike it that much more . I've worked outside with highs in the low teens and starting the day with below 0 . Ill take that over big heat every single time . 

This weekend will be perfect for getting some pre-Spring yard work done. Clean up the leaves that blew back into the yard, and put some new mulch down. Maybe some Preen. No sweat, no bugs.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...