Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,653
    Total Members
    14,841
    Most Online
    SENCMike
    Newest Member
    SENCMike
    Joined

March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

570dm on a day 9 ens mean for March.

image.png

I saw that -

I'd like to add that we're putting that up on a D9 ...                          D              9    !                     oh, right you mentioned that - heh right

That might be antithetically similar to 995 mb low on a D9 EPS  in turns of relative or absolute value.  Just guessin' but yeah... that may also not be a signal that's done trending.  If one cares to reset that product to D7 (168 ) and click previous 3 or 4 times, it's been gaining hypsometric depth on every cycle ... 2 and 3 dm intervals.

True for the GEFs as well - even though the operational run is clearly created to insidiously hide global warming ...  :arrowhead:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In fact.. if that 'weakness' off the lower M/A continues to minor out, that ridge may gain vertical depth in the DCA latitudes, which would service us with taller BL thickness/deeper layer conveyor, too.. We go from 69 ish to 79'ish. 

Can't be ruled out because as the ridge node's been gathering weight across successive run cycles, so to has that thing been filling -

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm pretty sure (??) La Nina springs tend to be dryer than normal - 

I'm not a big fan of ENSO's anymore in the heart of the winters ..as I'm suspecting increasingly so that intense mid winter hemispheric/ambient gradient saturation is tending to mute that ENSO as primary in pattern forcing. 

We've been noting over recent winters the lack of real-time/ correlated appeals to patterns on either warm(cool) side of the ENSOs... - although it is interesting that Australia did pick up a decent wet summer this year.  By and large, however, the hemisphere's have not been registering the same climate impacts along known geographical/routes .. .. anyway, I'm not sure if that is "as" true as a hypothesis application in autumns and springs.  Anyway, ...

I also don't believe in "droughts" in New England as much as I do dry eras... that 'mimic' droughts.   This isn't west Texas...  Autumns here seldom look like their preceding summers, which altogether are utterly noisy in the statistics compared to ensuing winters...etc...  If dry eras last through all three, it's just good night at the crappes table.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s March. Nothing is growing. I want it bone dry right now if we’re not getting a foot of snow. 

Actually stuff would start growing after tomorrow with the warm sun. It happens every year once the sun gets high. The problem is.. you lose green up season with a month of no rain and dews in the teens and 20’s. . That’s a problem for the vast majority of folks who like to get lawns going etc 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Actually stuff would start growing after tomorrow with the warm sun. It happens every year once the sun gets high. The problem is.. you lose green up season with a month of no rain and dews in the teens and 20’s. . That’s a problem for the vast majority of folks who like to get lawns going etc 

Red flag warnings for everyone 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea and he’s on the nw end of the city closer to Boulder so he’ll push 30 easily. He definitely took on a TBlizz life form yesterday and it paid off.  

Gfs looked pretty bad in this. At least from what I saw. Was giving like 50” and try en tried to rain them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs looked pretty bad in this. At least from what I saw. Was giving like 50” and try en tried to rain them.

Just getting crushed all along that urban corridor and front range hills.

Just ripping at 1/8 mile vis at a few stations there. 
METAR KBJC 142047Z 33021G28KT 1/8SM +SN

A7D16301-F49E-440E-A874-89D81C6F6CBD.gif.98ca4b4f4b3c63326776a936bbb9b5ab.gif

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Just getting crushed all along that urban corridor and front range hills.

A7D16301-F49E-440E-A874-89D81C6F6CBD.gif.98ca4b4f4b3c63326776a936bbb9b5ab.gif

Been fascinating watching the dynamics. Think that barrier jet convergence working magic. Even to the north it’s rather slotty, but those echoes just hit a wall NE and E of Denver and you have upward VV. Probably some fronto and isentropic lift too, but warm advection isn’t that strong. Also you have steep lapse rates moving in to help get that air accelerating upward. 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...