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February 17-18th Winter Storm Thread.


John1122
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Topped out (so far lol) at 42.1 down to 40.3 now (DP also falling again). It's like any other winter system in the central/southern valley...will have to thread a very small needle. Cold retreats too quick (moisture streams in) get rain...cold holds too long/stronger (moisture gets wasted on virga) 

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I recently sent a message to MRX on facebook asking about my neck of the woods (Oak Ridge). Here were their thoughts as of 3:30:

It looks like you may see some mixed precipitation overnight which could be mainly snow at least briefly.  Could be an inch or two of snow for Oak Ridge, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty and it could end up being less.

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Well it's 343 PM. The NAMs are out and the 12km didn't look too terrible for the plateau west. Now what? Too early for booze and all hope isn't 100% lost yet, at least for me. I guess it's watch the webcams time. Here's some snow near AMZ just east of Memphis:

https://smartway.tn.gov/traffic?features=incident,traffic,cameras&position=35.13802557,-89.4291555,13

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MRX AFD is up.

excerpt:

 

"For this evening and tonight, strong jet structure will move
across the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. Some models
are so a 300mb jet of 165-170kts over the Ohio valley. Models show
very strong upper divergence with the jet configuration between
04-09Z. The Ageostrophic Vertical Circulation with the jet will
produce dynamic cooling as well as the wet bulb cooling due to
initial dry airmass.

A period of heavy snow (some sleet) is possible across the
Plateau, western sections of the Tennessee valley, northeast
Tennessee, and southwest Virginia. The strong warm air advection
and isentropic lift will produce widespread precipitation.
Eventually the warm air advection will win out with model
soundings show precipitation transitioning to rain area-wide soon
after daybreak."
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I think it is just going to come down to who gets right on that edge of the heaviest precip and can keep it snow the longest. It's a question of where the firehose sets up, and Nashville probably thinks it's more likely over Cumberland County. I really do think 3-5 and maybe more is right, for whoever gets under the firehose. It is going to absolutely rip. Every sounding I have looked at from every model shows great forcing into the DGZ, they just differ on 700mb - the surface temps. 

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2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think it is just going to come down to who gets right on that edge of the heaviest precip and can keep it snow the longest. It's a question of where the firehose sets up, and Nashville probably thinks it's more likely over Cumberland County. I really do think 3-5 and maybe more is right, for whoever gets under the firehose. It is going to absolutely rip. Every sounding I have looked at from every model shows great forcing into the DGZ, they just differ on 700mb - the surface temps. 

And of course as soon as I type that I go check the 18z soundings and they still look good, just not as good, lol. 

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