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Kmlwx

2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion

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Interesting USA Today article on La Nina and this year's severe season:

The temperature of the water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific during February 2021 is similar to the La Niña pattern in February 2011," AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.

Pastelok said the mid- to lower-Mississippi Valley and the mid-Atlantic regions will have the highest risk for severe weather this spring.

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18 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I slept through the derecho. Meh.

Man.. blower. You missed the only real widespread severe I've witnessed in my 42 year long life in the Mid Atlantic. 

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On 2/24/2021 at 2:44 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

I slept through the derecho. Meh.

I remember trying to sleep through the derecho, without much success. I had already gotten a lot out of the winter weather side of things at that age, but losing power for 7 days didn't give my young weather weenie self the same connection to severe season. However, I'd love to get into that side of things, but I'll probably just be around lurking. Would be nice to track without the cutthroat nature of the winter threads, that's for sure. 

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1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

can it snow during a severe outbreak? I'm hopeful we get one of those snowrecho thingies.

I've been trying to weenie it up for a while now. Years actually. It'd be fun to have a day with temps/dews in the lower 40's/upper 20's-30F respectively along with extremely steep low-mid level lapse rates leading to MLCAPE of ~500 J/kg and a powerful NS shortwave swinging through during the afternoon at 60-70+ mph. 

This would form a line of severe thunderstorms with snow as the main precip-type along with widespread severe wind gusts. 

Were you around for the December 19th super snowrecho just over two months ago?

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The derecho here was a meh event.  No severe, power went out for 5 seconds due to lightning strike on highway.  Was an average storm for us.  A few miles south it was another story.  And of course NOVA.  Even so, it was nothing like the one that hit last year in Iowa.  This area just is a (natural) disaster free zone.  Which is a good thing.  Only a total psycho would feel good coming home from work to their home being destroyed, pets killed, etc. ;)

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Man, we got absolutely nuked by the derecho in 2011. I was living in Falls Church near I-495 at the time and my neighborhood was lit up by that beast. I will never forget the sky looking like that - purple, black, swirling, words do not do it justice. There were transformers blowing everywhere and constant lightning and it looked like the fourth of July.

Folks in my office at the time, particularly those in the Bethesda area, were out of power for up to two weeks. 

At the time I bailed out and drove to PA for the weekend to stay with family. It was on a Friday night, right? Came back when the power was back on in the nhood.

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4 hours ago, Paleocene said:

Man, we got absolutely nuked by the derecho in 2011. I was living in Falls Church near I-495 at the time and my neighborhood was lit up by that beast. I will never forget the sky looking like that - purple, black, swirling, words do not do it justice. There were transformers blowing everywhere and constant lightning and it looked like the fourth of July.

Folks in my office at the time, particularly those in the Bethesda area, were out of power for up to two weeks. 

At the time I bailed out and drove to PA for the weekend to stay with family. It was on a Friday night, right? Came back when the power was back on in the nhood.

I am always going to hold a tiny bit of resentment towards my brother for getting married that weekend in Minneapolis.  I watched it all happen via my phone from Target Field :(

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4 hours ago, Paleocene said:

Man, we got absolutely nuked by the derecho in 2011. I was living in Falls Church near I-495 at the time and my neighborhood was lit up by that beast. I will never forget the sky looking like that - purple, black, swirling, words do not do it justice. There were transformers blowing everywhere and constant lightning and it looked like the fourth of July.

Folks in my office at the time, particularly those in the Bethesda area, were out of power for up to two weeks. 

At the time I bailed out and drove to PA for the weekend to stay with family. It was on a Friday night, right? Came back when the power was back on in the nhood.

Yeah it was bad that way.  I was in Vienna the week after and the brush piles at the curb were ridiculous!  Power still out in those places.

A few videos are on youtube from the baltimore area, it was breezy and at times it looked like the winds gusted over 50-60mph picking up dirt and trash cans.  Lots of green flashes from arcing wires too.  And of course nearly continuous lightning.  Up our way the most significant thing was lightning and it rained hard.

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On 2/25/2021 at 10:56 AM, Cobalt said:

I remember trying to sleep through the derecho, without much success. I had already gotten a lot out of the winter weather side of things at that age, but losing power for 7 days didn't give my young weather weenie self the same connection to severe season. However, I'd love to get into that side of things, but I'll probably just be around lurking. Would be nice to track without the cutthroat nature of the wintenaturer threads, that's for sure. 

That last sentence made me chuckle. New here I take it lol

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MRGL risk gets into C VA and S MD for Thursday per SPC Day 3 OTLK

From morning LWX AFD:

The warm front associated with this system is expected to be
right along the southern boundary of our CWA. Better near-
surface-based instability coupled with deep shear may result in
a severe weather threat. Though the greatest risk appears to be
focused to our south, a few damaging wind gusts or even a
low tornado risk can`t be ruled out as far north as central VA
to southern MD Thursday afternoon/evening.

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Just now, yoda said:

MRGL risk gets into C VA and S MD for Thursday

With the SLGT getting north of Richmond... though March climatology... Caddy Waddy...

I'm low-key watching far southern zones for now, though. 

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Wish we could get into some of the stuff the south will be getting tomorrow.

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1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Hopefully April will start to bring opportunities for us. But often we end up waiting until May/June for the meaty stuff. 

April of 2019 was better than usual as a whole for these parts. The April 14-15th event could've been something memorable if timing was + or - 12 hours. A lot of moonlit skies between the storms that night once the mid-level dryslot moved overhead. Make that sunshine and add 5-10F then...

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39 minutes ago, H2O said:

Wish we could get into some of the stuff the south will be getting tomorrow.

Could be the first HIGH risk of the year tomorrow down in AL/MS per new DAY 2 OTLK from SPC

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51 minutes ago, George BM said:

April of 2019 was better than usual as a whole for these parts. The April 14-15th event could've been something memorable if timing was + or - 12 hours. A lot of moonlit skies between the storms that night once the mid-level dryslot moved overhead. Make that sunshine and add 5-10F then...

So many of our events are razor thin margins with timing or other factor. And 12 hours is often on the higher end of how we bust. Often it's the difference of just like 5-8 hours that kills us. 

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52 minutes ago, George BM said:

@yoda Ay, where're you at? 

SPC3172021day1otlk_600.gif.9b4329ad0e9faec42997ddd935058d85.gif

Moderate risk for most of the Carolinas on Thursday as well. Shades of April 14-16 2011, an outbreak that's been kind of forgotten, given what happened later that April and May. 

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This is the time of year when I start giving CIPS analogs some general glances to see what kinds of threats may be coming down the pike. It's still VERY early for our region. Patience. 

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