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Typhoon Tip

February 18th ?19th?

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think it is the endless tracking that becomes tiring by end of Feb. It’s a lot of work. I welcome the spring and summer, love it, but not the high dews. 

Maybe. It all gets tiresome. Probably why I’m aggravated by a 36hr event dropping 3-6”. We’ve been slammed at work too, so it all combines.

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i honestly don't see anything more than 3-5" anywhere unless we tick north a little more, or some mid-level magic forcing, but that seems to be a couple hundred miles south...shame I was hoping for a decent thumping...btw, 0430 waking every day, never set an alarm in my life, just always awoke at that time for some reason, doesn't mean I always got up and did stuff but wake up regardless.

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

NAM looking like dung isn’t a good start to 00z

If you told me the that after the 18Z Euro the NAM at 00Z would come in drier than any of its previous runs I wouldn’t have believed it 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe. It all gets tiresome. Probably why I’m aggravated by a 36hr event dropping 3-6”. We’ve been slammed at work too, so it all combines.

at least this is interesting, I mean the whole board is here, in summer its freaking 5 people talking about dews and droughts daily 

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Our weather in New England in spring is an utter dumpster fire most of the time....I’d rather have an event give me an inch of snow over 40 hours than entertain the idea of enduring countless wheel-o-rhea days to try and sneak in a few nice ones in between. 

Anyways, 00z NAM definitely didn’t help anything on this storm. 3km continues to look a little better than 12km. 

 

 

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NAM is garbage, it initialized badly. The low is farther west and stronger than what the nam has. Red is where the low is yellow is where the nam had it. Many on this board even those well to the north and west will end up surprised to see that they ended up with over a foot of snow rather just the couple of inches they are forecast. 

 

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58 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m glad I held off on taking em down, the high end of my forecast is going to bust but it looks like the low end is still in play (widespread foot with 16 jackpots) based on the obs of the low being both stronger and farther west than expected. It appears that the models underestimated the convection down south, the low is tapping into even more gulf moisture than expected and as a result is bombing out more than expected, and is coming more north and west than expected. The stronger low throwing precip back farther west, which on top of the low itself being more north and west than expected is leading to precip getting into areas like WV that we’re not forecast to be getting anything at this hour. The models right now have the 2nd low scraping the cape, but when taking obs into account it is appearing more likely that the 2nd low is going to undergo bombogenesis and bring heavy snow as far west as the berkshires. I’m starting to think the mistake I made was losing confidence in my forecast just because of one bad set of runs. 

Bad runs will make you loose confidence...especially if it happens in public 

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Interesting how the euro looked a little better, RGEM looks better and NAM looks blah. Radar looks great but I've seen that a THOUSAND times before. Wake up tomorrow and its shunted east

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You can actually track that fronto finger over the Apps right now. It’s progged to weaken, but if models are wrong, that may be a surprise for a narrow area.

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4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Interesting how the euro looked a little better, RGEM looks better and NAM looks blah. Radar looks great but I've seen that a THOUSAND times before. Wake up tomorrow and its shunted east

When the radar looks great it means overperformer most of the time. There is nothing suggesting that the low will be shunted east. This is coming west all of Mass will likely get 12+. The radar supports my forecast, not the nam. 

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Interesting meso battle going on with NAM the outlier tonight.  WRF members have over .5 as well. RAP HRRR all look similar 

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1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Give me two big monitors, keyboard, mouse, comfy chair any day or night.  My wife doesn't give two shits...wait until you're 61!

Some of us still have actual stereos, CD players and turntables in our living rooms. 

Anyway, looks like some winter love for most of SNE the next two days.  We take.

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Am I the only meteorologist who has never once pulled up the ICON?

Lol whens the big move to SC with Scooter, friends are asking 

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33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You can actually track that fronto finger over the Apps right now. It’s progged to weaken, but if models are wrong, that may be a surprise for a narrow area.

The fronto finger makes me nervous actually. RAP starting to account for it, and my concern is being parked on the street if it snows before morning I could get towed. Wasn’t planning on moving the car til tomorrow 

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4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Am I the only meteorologist who has never once pulled up the ICON?

I didn’t until recently.  I wanted to track its accuracy and figured I’d give it the season. 
 

so far it’s not impressive with details while seeming reasonably good at general system awareness in space if that makes any sense 

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