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Hoosier

February 14-16 Winter Storm

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STL's AFD

Quote
.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 419 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

The screaming message from last night has not changed 24 hours later
with bitterly cold air/record temperatures, dangerously cold wind
chills, and accumulating snowfall the highlights into next week.
Record low max temperatures Sunday into Monday still look like a
slam dunk, however I have less confidence in record low temperatures
due to persistent cloud cover. Still generally all but southeast
MO and far southwest IL will have mins below zero through Monday
and the entire CWA may have mins below zero on Tuesday morning.

The increasingly active upper air pattern starting later this
weekend and continuing into next week will bring accumulating
snowfall to the region first Sunday into Monday. This first event
will come in two waves. On Sunday the consensus is the first wave
will be focused from central MO into west central IL associated with
a weak impulse in the southwest flow aloft and attendant mid level
frontogenetic forcing. Snowfall amounts with this wave generally
look light, around an inch or less. The more substantial snowfall
will occur with the second wave centered on Sunday night and Monday.
The best focus for this snowfall will centered along and south of I-
70 associated with increasing low-mid level frontogenetic forcing
and increasing large scale forcing occurring ahead of a migrating
upper trof. Until late Monday the models lack a coherent 850 mb
low which could offer even greater snowfall potential. However
this combination of persistent frontogenetical forcing and large
scale support with the trof, and very cold temperatures yielding
high snow ratios, should still produce a solid measurable
snowfall of 2-5 inches across much of the CWA with the highest
amounts along and south of I-70 in the 4-5 inch range. The NBM and
GEFS exceedance probabilities support this region for the highest
snowfalls with good support for 4+ inches. If the amounts stay in
these ranges then this would be an advisory level event, and
those headlines would likely becoming later today.

We are still eyeing another system in the Wednesday-Thursday time
frame. There are some rather significant differences in the
models with regards to the depth and speed of this next migratory
upper trof, with some solutions indicating possibly a light snow
and others a rather classic winter storm. Like last night,
confidence in the specifics remains low. The very cold, well
below normal temperatures will continue mid-late week.

Glass

 

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The SE joggle on the majority of models has been a bit concerning. Still not worried because this should drop a fairly wide swath of snow, so being outside the jackpot won't be a big deal.

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1 hour ago, Gino27 said:

ILN AFD:

However, some important differences remain in low placement and
intensity. The 00Z GFS is running faster and a bit further
south while the ECMWF is slower, stronger, and further north.
Due to these differences, have continued a rather broad band of
4-8 inches area wide. Certainly there is a good possibility
local areas will see nearly a foot of snow with higher drifts
based on QPF, snow ratios, duration of the event, and wind
fields. In addition, as the low reaches the vicinity of the
central Appalachians, some forecast soundings -- particularly
the 00Z GFS -- show a deep saturated layer centered in the DGZ.
Will closely monitor track and strength of the low, as these
will play a critical role in a detailed accumulation forecast
leading up to the event.

Central Ohio hasn't had a foot from a single storm in 13 years. Wow.

March 2008 was such a great, long-duration event. However, it's not exactly been 13 years for all of Central Ohio.  February 5-6, 2010 saw 12"-15" for some areas along and north of I-70, and February 15-16, 2010 hit a foot in a few spots.  Double-digit snowfalls are exceedingly rare in Central Ohio, though.  If we go by single-day totals, there have only been 3 since 1884.  2-day events, you only have 10.  So this event could be historic from that perspective.

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Just now, jbcmh81 said:

March 2008 was such a great, long-duration event. However, it's not exactly been 13 years for all of Central Ohio.  February 5-6, 2010 saw 12"-15" for some areas along and north of I-70, and February 15-16, 2010 hit a foot in a few spots.  Double-digit snowfalls are exceedingly rare in Central Ohio, though.  If we go by single-day totals, there have only been 3 since 1884.  2-day events, you only have 10.  So this event could be historic from that perspective.

How could I forget Feb 2010! Ugh what storms those two were.

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7 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

March 2008 was such a great, long-duration event. However, it's not exactly been 13 years for all of Central Ohio.  February 5-6, 2010 saw 12"-15" for some areas along and north of I-70, and February 15-16, 2010 hit a foot in a few spots.  Double-digit snowfalls are exceedingly rare in Central Ohio, though.  If we go by single-day totals, there have only been 3 since 1884.  2-day events, you only have 10.  So this event could be historic from that perspective.

Last double digit snow IMBY was Jan 13 2019 when we got 10" in the south Dayton area in one of those elongated events just like the Monday/Tues one this past week.

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3 minutes ago, HighTechEE said:

Last double digit snow IMBY was Jan 13 2019 when we got 10" in the south Dayton area in one of those elongated events just like the Monday/Tues one this past week.

Jan 2019 for Dayton? Hah. Your climo is better than downtown Chicago 

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Can someone explain the 21z RAP and why it's so far northwest??  Is it a joke model that never verifies, I assume, based on the sarcasm.  

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2 hours ago, Frog Town said:

Basically the Euro vs. the GFS more the mid forum folk......Normally I'd be be giddy for what the Euro is showing, but things have been strange lately.  

This.

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9 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Can someone explain the 21z RAP and why it's so far northwest??  Is it a joke model that never verifies, I assume, based on the sarcasm.  

always amped at longer ranges

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TY

What's more interesting is it's axis of heavy snow.  Any validity to that, or is it also a complete outlier. 

 

by amped, you were probably also refereeing to it's position as well.  got it

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8 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

TY

What's more interesting is it's axis of heavy snow.  Any validity to that, or is it also a complete outlier. 

 

by amped, you were probably also refereeing to it's position as well.  got it

And that 21z rap is from yesterday.

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It’s been 10 years since we have seen a double digit snowfall. It will likely be another 10 before we see another one. I hope this happens as modeled. I am just happy the last part of winter this season has been this good. 

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2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

nam probably gonna bury me at 12z just to go andit'sgone.gif by 0z

Bingo. The nest even dangles a carrot for NW LOT

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15 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

would still take the gfs

 

yeah, city along and southeast of I-55 looking good today. Hoping to sneak out a couple inches  in that cold air regime even here. BTW....who starts the next thread?:yikes:.....to late.

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So what's the consensus here??  Are most abandoning the Euro and going with the GFS?  Can someone post an ensemble blend of the two for comparison?  That would be much appreciated and might help.  

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GFS has been better for us with last few storms. Euro has been folding to GFS in the end.

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1 hour ago, fyrfyter said:

It’s been 10 years since we have seen a double digit snowfall. It will likely be another 10 before we see another one. I hope this happens as modeled. I am just happy the last part of winter this season has been this good. 

Cincinnati came really close to double-digits just last week.  I think some of the metro hit that.

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Just now, jbcmh81 said:

Cincinnati came really close to double-digits just last week.  I think some of the metro hit that.

NKY at the airport got to 9.something due to mesoscale banding. I got 5 at my house, in NW Hamilton County.

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5 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

The GFS Para has a totally different look.  Which one has been better lately??

Image

The GFS v16 has been much better.  looking foward to it taking over as the operational GFS next month

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Just now, fyrfyter said:

NKY at the airport got to 9.something due to mesoscale banding. I got 5 at my house, in NW Hamilton County.

9.8", which is as close to double digits as you can get.  Most of the heaviest stuff fell just south of the river.  But overall, Cincy has had a good winter.  It's already above average for the entire season I believe.

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I think its close to that. The first 2/3rds of our winter was awful. Glad we are gaining some back. 

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Just now, Frog Town said:

So why is everyone's forecast hedging towards the GFS operational in their AFD's??

Because it has performed better recently. 

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Just now, Frog Town said:

So why is everyone's forecast hedging towards the GFS operational in their AFD's??

At a minimum I doubt they can use an experimental/non-operational model in an operational forecast.

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Thanks for the insight.  It just really makes you wander which way this is gonna go.  I've fought the NW trend all my life, now i'm fighting the SE trend.  Maybe it's time to move, lol.  

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