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February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event


MN Transplant
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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

100% guarantee things end up further north than what is being progged on the 18z NAM if the low takes the track depicted. The sharp cutoff will definitely happen somewhere, I just don’t see central MD (between DC and BAL) seeing such little precip. A low that rides into southern VA barely getting precip north of the VA MD border? Seems odd

We've been down this road in past winters. I am NOT making a prediction for how it goes this time, but what you are describing is NOT odd.  A weak disturbance hitting a wall of colder air that dries out QPF on the northern edges is very familiar. Happens plenty. 

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Just now, mattie g said:

I wouldn't either if the Euro hadn't consistently been losing precip on the northern edge over the last 24 hours...and hadn't lost a ton of its total juice at 12z today.

In my experience the euro can run dry but sometimes will come in with more precip at game time.

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3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

We've been down this road in past winters. I am NOT making a prediction for how it goes this time, but what you are describing is NOT odd.  A weak disturbance hitting a wall of colder air that dries out QPF on the northern edges is very familiar. Happens plenty. 

I don’t disagree about the northern cutoff and dry air eating away at precip.  I just don’t see it being that far south. I can see me, ClSkins, and PSU getting fringed hard, Baltimore getting a bit over 0.5” in QPF, with more further south.  Guess it’s possible though. 

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Silver lining is that wave 2 is still 48+ hours away. NAM jackpotted Richmond 12 hours ago and North Carolina 12 hours before that, now the best strip of snow is halfway between Richmond and DC and broader, too. I don't consider there to be a good chance of this, but it could come north/get a bit less fringy with QPF in 48 hours. Just gotta keep watching.

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Just now, baltosquid said:

Silver lining is that wave 2 is still 48+ hours away. NAM jackpotted Richmond 24 hours ago and North Carolina 12 hours before that, now the best strip of snow is halfway between Richmond and DC and broader, too. I don't consider there to be a good chance of this, but it could come north/get a bit less fringy with QPF in 48 hours. Just gotta keep watching.

If Models aren’t agreeing on some key elements of wave 1... how can they possibly be nailing wave 2? Agree. Think it’s going to be a wait and see situation. We may not know what’s coming with round 2 until round 1 has passed us by. 

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6 minutes ago, jayyy said:

I don’t disagree about the northern cutoff and dry air eating away at precip.  I just don’t see it being that far south. I can see me, ClSkins, and PSU getting fringed hard, Baltimore getting a bit over 0.5” in QPF, with more further south.  Guess it’s possible though. 

Clskins is a bit south of Baltimore.

Doesn't matter though...he's getting fringed anyway.

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4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Come on GFS to make us feel a bit better.. then the EURO for the real better feel. NEED THAT NORTH TREND.. on Wave 2

 

I agree. Still time (not a lot) for some models to push this North and the vibe can flip in this forum this evening. Glass half full. Or if my unicorn thinking happens. Make that a full glass please. 

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2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

RGEM already with over a half inch of QPF by 23 for @WxUSAF :mapsnow:

This is what I’m saying. Central MD between DC/BAL is still a huge unknown IMO. Models vary from 0.3” to 0.8” in QPF. HUGE difference. 0z should hopefully bring a bit more clarify with some better sampling 

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