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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

In reality this has always been a 2-4 event for us. That was clear on Thursday. And I am fine with it. 

You said beatdown at least ten times lol

And if we get 4 I’ll be stunned. But I’ll take it :D

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2 minutes ago, T. August said:

Is the euro at least all frozen?

Yes, other than right at onset in the lowlands. As has been discussed all day, the immediate surface is the only warm layer, and it is a thin slice.

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

lol its killing him.

5.2 for my yard :bike:

Considering it was 0.0” 72 hours ago, I’ll take my 2-4” and be happy.  

Did you forget to move the decimal over for .52 for your yard? :raining:

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1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

Everyone refusing to post Euro snowfall maps is like people holding onto Gamestop. Diamond hands, people, diamond hands. 

For you friend. 

1612803600-cVYdfY3hkhg.png

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40/28.  2-4” and hoping to get deathbanded  during my coffee in the morning.

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I thought for 100% sure with closer slp track and subtle changes at h5 precip Euro would have been better n+w . I'm in chips fall mode now . Hrrr and radar nowcast.  I'm thinking 2-3" here most likely off .20" qpf . 4" if a decent band gets up here . Its gonna snow :weenie:

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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Dude, I was encouraging people to keep NOT posting it. Like everyone refusing to sell their Gamestop stock...

Oh well. I fuccked that up.

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Just now, CAPE said:

For you friend. 

1612803600-cVYdfY3hkhg.png

Eww that really cut back on the western fringes.  I hope everyone in the Eastern part of the sub forum gets a good shallacking.  Not expecting much out this way.

 

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

I thought for 100% sure with closer slp track and subtle changes at h5 precip Euro would have been better n+w . I'm in chips fall mode now . Hrrr and radar nowcast.  I'm thinking 2-3" here most likely off .20" qpf . 4" if a decent band gets up here . Its gonna snow :weenie:

Don’t look at the latest HRRR then 

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38 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’d love to bring that map 50 air miles nwWe know dude. You want it to go

You don’t say..... 
 

Luckily for you, that’s been the trend all season. Storms end up 50-75 miles NW of what’s progged day before. 

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14 minutes ago, snowfan said:

DC at 11z tmrw am. As others have been saying all day, super thin warm layer at surface. This is all about rates. 
 

D609B731-77C4-4BFE-8DBD-FA3138561394.png

Everybody here knows it’s about rates. The issue is every single model has decreased the rates in the last 12-18 hours. 

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19 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

In reality this has always been a 2-4 event for us. That was clear on Thursday. And I am fine with it. 

Based of latest trends even 2" might be a stretch 

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1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

That was the opposite of diamond hands lol...

I am not a gambler, unless having a 401k counts.

Guess I should have googled that one lol.

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@Bob Chill I’m not predicting this...I’ve been expecting it to juice up at the last minute all along so might as well ride that to the end. But while we keep playing the “well at least it’s gonna snow” game everytime things degrade a little more and a little more each run the last 24 hours....we really are only one more deamplification trend from this being close to a non event. Frankly one more trend exactly the same as the one from 12z to 18z and I probably don’t get much precip at all so my colder temps don’t help. 95 went from like .6-.75 across guidance 12z to .3-.5 18z.  One more adjustment to like .25-.3 and suddenly you’re talking mostly non accumulating rain snow mix. Even though I don’t think it comes to that...I also think because about 24 hours ago things looked so great and we had so much leeway to at least get a decent snow and it’s been a slow gradual bleed each run...that people don’t realize a complete fail isn’t impossible now.  We’re trending too close for comfort. Latest HRRR spit out the total fail scenario. 

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