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Feb 10th-11th Potent front/system


Brian D
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19 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

GFS is the only OP model that I've seen that is south...and well overdone on amounts as well.

The 12km nam looks decent for Wed. It's evolution for Thurs is odd. There's like a wall of snow heading towards us Thurs then it just disappears. 3km nam keeps it mostly I72 south. 

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9 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

The 12km nam looks decent for Wed. It's evolution for Thurs is odd. There's like a wall of snow heading towards us Thurs then it just disappears. 3km nam keeps it mostly I72 south. 

Toss the NAM whenever it's having splotchy precip issues.

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7 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

The NAMs look like a toss for Wednesday if the foreign guidance comes in farther north. 18z Euro had supported another 1-3" I-88 and south or thereabouts.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

not good trends in our neck of the woods for another arctic frosting event. But these can change on a dime 6-8 hrs out,

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53 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

valid Feb 14^, I know these little dusters are confusing to a degree but come on

anyways, thurs pm into friday looks okish, some guidance has been showing LE/mesolow action for NE IL or SE WI but nothing too wild yet

hoping for some improvements and another nice refresher

 

I am well aware  of the dates on this thread. Come on lol. 

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NAM looks like it's still having issues with the snow to ice line in NKY. The 540 thickness line goes North to almost the Ohio River before moving South again. That would create mixing issues here for sure. It's definitely showing issues with the Ice/Snow line as the event unfolds.

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12z GFS seems to be drying out some with the Southern portion of the storm. The Snow and ice totals are about half of what they used to be. They are 1/3rd from 12 hours ago. Not sure on that one. If the GFS is acting like the NAM or what's up with that. It does better though, without the random tongue of missing precip. 

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I know this isn't the storm that was previously modeled, and it's just a turd duster for the ORD area, but I'm looking forward to another 1 - 2" refresher today. We've had at least a 5 1/2" snowpack for 11 days. Every time it compresses/sublimates, we get a 1/2" - 2" refresher. Now, to save winter from being completely trash in this area, I'm waiting to hear the bark of a St. Bernard.

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1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said:

Traffic cams out of Galesburg showing roads suddenly snow covered  again (wasn't 1/2 hour ago)

so that band may be decent 

Idk why our local weather was saying 1-3in. We will be lucky to see an inch. Heaviest band setting up south which is what hi res suggested but looks like we could see pixie dust to light snow up here north of the main band. 

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9 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Idk why our local weather was saying 1-3in. We will be lucky to see an inch. Heaviest band setting up south which is what hi res suggested but looks like we could see pixie dust to light snow up here north of the main band. 

Not changing anything either. Has me for 1-2", been light snow/flurries all day but nothing more than a dusting.

 

Quote

UPDATE...
Issued at 1059 AM CST Wed Feb 10 2021

Broad area of light snow in warm advection aloft with some
heavier frontogenetical bands embedded occurring over much of
central IL largely as expected, focusing on I-72 northward at this
time. This afternoon, the focus for heavier banding should shift
southward, however overall lift decreases at the same time, so
PoPs generally decrease by evening. Temperatures look good, with
highs forecast to range from 13 in Galesburg to 26 in
Lawrenceville, only a few degrees above current temperatures.
Current forecast is largely on track with these features, so no
major updates needed this morning

 

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6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

still some 12z guidance showing a brief mesolow appearance tomorrow, maybe a sneak attack inch potential

Almost wondering about advisory type snows right along the shore and maybe a mile or two inland. There’s a weak wave passing which may help seed it too. 

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6 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Almost wondering about advisory type snows right along the shore and maybe a mile or two inland. There’s a weak wave passing which may help seed it too. 

12Z 3K NAM parks a decent looking band over northern Cook and Lake (IL) for several hours tomorrow. As always, hard to say if much will come out of it. Other hires models don't back it as far west.

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26 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Not changing anything either. Has me for 1-2", been light snow/flurries all day but nothing more than a dusting.

 

 

Same here. It's been some pixie dust a while. That heaviest band sandwiched between us both. Probably will see 2-3in totals in that. Think an inch at best here if that. 

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