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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 0z GFS is good for most of us.... not sure what you are seeing?

It actually gets mixing into DC & Baltimore and gets very good snow into PA!

Looked like .5 to .7 ish for you guys and more for south central area possible. Looking good for most, just hope we see this thing stay where it’s at next few cycles.

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Just now, Wmsptwx said:

Looked like .5 to .7 ish for you guys and more for south central area possible. Looking good for most, just hope we see this thing stay where it’s at next few cycles.

We are in a great spot... please see the maps I just posted...plus these things almost always bump a little north closer to game time.

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1 hour ago, Ruin said:

Im really sick of this dark blue band over me for hours and nothing is falling in fact I see breaks in the clouds like wtf.

It’s this airmass I think eating away good deal of the precip, really delicate situation when dealing with very cold air mass.

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5 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Hard to say yet. Comparing where this seems to be setting up in western PA on radar vs what the 0z 3k and 12k NAM have.. it does appear it's coming in lower. So we'll see how that translates across the state. Some of this might get as low as the turnpike in the Sus Valley but the best probably still goes north of MDT. 

I woke up this morning in Marysville to snow falling and all surfaces completely covered.

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16 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Nothing here in Akron. 
(Didn’t expect much if any so no biggie)

next.......

Speaking of the next event Thursday & Friday.

Not a bad spot to be in with the inevitable bump north that we should expect.

Here are the 6z Euro, GFS & GEFS through Friday afternoon.

 

5CEF9321-373C-4E63-9CE3-D2BFC261A979.png

29F14C9C-694C-45AD-9EE9-C28691BDC354.png

A1D5286B-43BA-407C-81E5-7CDEEEF1796E.png

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13 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

So you expect this to possibly creep north?

Just about every event has this year & historically this type of event will do so.

The southern half of PA needs only a 50 to 75 mile bump north to get into the jackpot. Plus, with cold air infusing into the storm, we should get a a little bump with good ratios in PA.

 

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Just about every event has this year & historically this type of event will do so.

The southern half of PA needs only a 50 to 75 mile bump north to get into the jackpot. Plus, with cold air infusing into the storm, we should get a a little bump with good ratios in PA.

 

Yes, hopefully were not nickeled and dimed to death the rest of February. Lets get a big storm or two and hopefully we can get to spring in March sometime.

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1 hour ago, 2001kx said:

Been snowing all night and have 1.2" to show for it..The snow is like sand and not really adding up.

Yea same, looks like I have about an inch at best. I think some downsloping probably isn't helping my cause here. Def a good event over in western PA, looks like a solid 3-5" over in Pittsburgh. 

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18 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea same, looks like I have about an inch at best. I think some downsloping probably isn't helping my cause here. Def a good event over in western PA, looks like a solid 3-5" over in Pittsburgh. 

Yeah looks good for them. Glad Ahoff or whatever his name is is getting some.  Probably why hes not on here b!tchin about not getting any snow.  He's quietly hoggin right now.  lol

 

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1 hour ago, anotherman said:

Looks like we may need a north trend on this one.  Not looking like our storm.  We'll see what 12z has to say.

Yes, we will. I just got caught up looking at the overnight/early morning guidance and...meh. Things seem to be settling pretty far south, but more importantly, pretty weak. And maybe the weak part is what's translating to the south part, but I don't know. 

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Yes, we will. I just got caught up looking at the overnight/early morning guidance and...meh. Things seem to be settling pretty far south, but more importantly, pretty weak. And maybe the weak part is what's translating to the south part, but I don't know. 

I am in northwest Jersey and we had about an hours worth of snow this morning.


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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I think round #2 has more upside as well. 

It sure looked that way several days ago.  If one looks at all models for consensus, ICON GFS and CMC have shown that for a while.  

Meso's for part 1 look better because they are at closer range....part 2 still coming into focus, and likely to adjust north in next 24 hours.  

And for those that say "yeah but it still doesnt show snow IMBY", you have to think incrementally when parsing over runs...and think about model bias, logical corrections and timeframe left for said corrections.  

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