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MAG5035

Central PA - Jan 31 to Feb 2 Winter Storm

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Just now, Atomixwx said:

Radar out west looks kinda rough. Are the mountains tearing the primary apart?

We've had issues with dry air here in western PA. Looks like maybe a band will be coming through the area soon. So far though we haven't gotten much from the primary. 

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44 minutes ago, paweather said:

Stole this LOL. I guess we are LSW:

Image may contain: text that says 'EXPECT AT LEAST 1"- WEATHER ON THE 1s SNOWFA POTENTIAL BY 2"+ 4"+ 6"+ 8"+ SUPERIOR Milk &Bread RHINELANDER Advisory EAU CLAIRE WAUSAU GREEN BAY LA Liguor Store CROSSE Warning DU LAC FOND MADISON MILWAUKEE MILWAUKEE 6:52 5° NEWS1 SPECTRUM WEATHER ALERT SCHOOL CLOSINGS FOR MONDAY JANUARY 28TH: MILWA PLATTEVILLE'

I want you gentlemen to know that we laugh about this because it’s true, not because it’s odd.  The line in the liquor store part of Madison’s Woodman’s, which is like your Wegman’s, was a world class affair on Saturday AM!  There was a woman with sixty of those little single-shot bottles of liquor in her cart and another gentleman with seven fifths of Tito’s. All for a five-inch storm...

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Just now, Mogget said:

I want you gentlemen to know that we laugh about this because it’s true, not because it’s odd.  The line in the liquor store part of Madison’s Woodman’s, which is like your Wegman’s, was a world class affair on Saturday AM!  There was a woman with sixty of those little single-shot bottles of liquor in her cart and another gentleman with seven fifths of Tito’s. All for a five-inch storm...

Were you supposed to be flying @Voyager this afternoon? 

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3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Were you supposed to be flying @Voyager this afternoon? 

Yeah, I’m the co-pilot for Cheesehead Airlines, LOL...

Actually, I lived in MD while getting my PhD and loved this weather board — it was the olden days back then.  Can’t remember what it was called but I was lurking in the Mid-Atlantic sub-forum last night and nothing has changed.

I have a very good friend in Carlisle so I visit here fairly often.

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30 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

the band im in is sweet                    nice fat dentrites

It can snow like this for the next 40 sumthin hours and I’d not have a care in the world as to how much is measured. 

Im happy 

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

It can snow like this for the next 40 sumthin hours and I’d not have a care in the world as to how much is measured. 

Im happy 

I agree.

Rates are picking up now in Marysville.

I have a little over 1 inch of snow on the ground.

 

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Nice burst of snow after what has been a pretty quiet afternoon (only light snow of the "for show" variety). Big flakes. Should be getting into some steadier stuff in the next hour or two. 

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Finally!  Moderate to almost heavy snow now falling here.  At 3:00pm I recorded an additional 0.2" of snow for a storm total of 1.0"  It is currently snowing at the rate of 0.5-0.75"/hr.  Temp now 27.1, dp 25.  Looking great outside!

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From past memory there always seems to be a 2nd and sometimes 3rd heavier band set up in the same orientation as the main Ccb. The model differences seem to amount to which orientation these bands lie. I view these areas like hills and valleys. If you are 25 miles behind one of these bands you’re going to stuck in a lull for an extended period of time. It also seems like the heavier bands with the coastal will pivot back towards the sus valley. If we are lucky enough to be the pivot point with bands going a more wsw to ene orientation like on the euro you will get a more widespread 10-16” snowfall. So I’m guessing paying attention to the meso from this evening onward will tell the story


.

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1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

From past memory there always seems to be a 2nd and sometimes 3rd heavier band set up in the same orientation as the main Ccb. The model differences seem to amount to which orientation these bands lie. I view these areas like hills and valleys. If you are 25 miles behind one of these bands you’re going to stuck in a lull for an extended period of time. It also seems like the heavier bands with the coastal will pivot back towards the sus valley. If we are lucky enough to be the pivot point with bands going a more wsw to ene orientation like on the euro you will get a more widespread 10-16” snowfall. So I’m guessing paying attention to the meso from this evening onward will tell the story


.

Hrrr starting to pick up on this.    It’s looking a lot better 

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Hrrr starting to pick up on this.    It’s looking a lot better 

Just because I have family out near Pittsburgh I will always remember that one storm in feb 2010 that due to a trailing boundary that setup e to w the 4 to 8” turned into 16” with news stations caught still calling for it when 12” was already on the ground


.

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12 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

From past memory there always seems to be a 2nd and sometimes 3rd heavier band set up in the same orientation as the main Ccb. The model differences seem to amount to which orientation these bands lie. I view these areas like hills and valleys. If you are 25 miles behind one of these bands you’re going to stuck in a lull for an extended period of time. It also seems like the heavier bands with the coastal will pivot back towards the sus valley. If we are lucky enough to be the pivot point with bands going a more wsw to ene orientation like on the euro you will get a more widespread 10-16” snowfall. So I’m guessing paying attention to the meso from this evening onward will tell the story


.

This might be the best post of the day!

100% great point.

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This might be the best post of the day!
100% great point.

You can sorta see the outline of this in the meso with the finger like bands of heavier accumulations. I think confluence and timing of the capture will determine the orientation of the bands. The sus valley can benefit with an increased easterly fetch being banged up against the mountains starts to enhance the WAA before the CCB really gets going. We can have a wide area of moderate snow for hours. I still think the heaviest totals will be out towards Allentown but being able to cash in for 6 or so hours before the main CCB gets going east of here will even out the snow distribution some. If the Ccb is more east west than north south then you get what the euro was depicting.

Personally, having 24 hours straight of moderate snow would equal about 12” and be a dream for me. Long duration events have been rare since the 1990s it seems. I consider myself lucky to have experienced thundersnow 3 or 4 times in the last 15 years here. Never have I had a super long duration storm though.


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1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:


You can sorta see the outline of this in the meso with the finger like bands of heavier accumulations. I think confluence and timing of the capture will determine the orientation of the bands. The sus valley can benefit with an increased easterly fetch being banged up against the mountains starts to enhance the WAA before the CCB really gets going. We can have a wide area of moderate snow for hours. I still think the heaviest totals will be out towards Allentown but being able to cash in for 6 or so hours before the main CCB gets going east of here will even out the snow distribution some. If the Ccb is more east west than north south then you get what the euro was depicting.

Personally, having 24 hours straight of moderate snow would equal about 12” and be a dream for me. Long duration events have been rare since the 1990s it seems. I consider myself lucky to have experienced thundersnow 3 or 4 times in the last 15 years here. Never have I had a super long duration storm though.


.

X2 man. Love long duration....don’t like quickies.....

but I’ll take em. 
:P

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5 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:


You can sorta see the outline of this in the meso with the finger like bands of heavier accumulations. I think confluence and timing of the capture will determine the orientation of the bands. The sus valley can benefit with an increased easterly fetch being banged up against the mountains starts to enhance the WAA before the CCB really gets going. We can have a wide area of moderate snow for hours. I still think the heaviest totals will be out towards Allentown but being able to cash in for 6 or so hours before the main CCB gets going east of here will even out the snow distribution some. If the Ccb is more east west than north south then you get what the euro was depicting.

Personally, having 24 hours straight of moderate snow would equal about 12” and be a dream for me. Long duration events have been rare since the 1990s it seems. I consider myself lucky to have experienced thundersnow 3 or 4 times in the last 15 years here. Never have I had a super long duration storm though.


.

X2 man. Love long duration....don’t like quickies.....

but I’ll take em. 
:P

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Latest CTP AFD (is it too late to enter the MDT snowfall contest?):

A long duration winter storm will continue to impact central PA
through Monday night. We will transition from phase 1 of the
storm to phase 2 as the primary sfc low weakens over the OH
Valley tonight and energy transfers to a strengthening coastal
low offshore the Delmarva/NJ.

Hires models particularly the HREF/HRRR are showing dry slot
penetrating into the lower Susquehanna Valley after midnight,
and in response we expect snow to change to or mix with sleet
and freezing rain into early Monday morning.

The gradient between deepening coastal low and high pressure
over the Canadian Maritimes will result in an anomalous easterly
flow focused into eastern PA. Expect wintry mix to transition
back to snow by midday Monday with increasing snow rates through
Monday afternoon. 12Z HREF was not that bullish for >1"/hr rates
showing highest probs running along the CWA border btwn BGM and
CTP. Models continue to show fgen band setting up in the
deformation zone and pivoting over east-central into northeast
PA Monday evening and into Monday night.

The key takeaway for the dayshift cycle was an overall reduction
in storm total snowfall supported by the HREF mean/extended
range 12/18Z HRRR and backed by a WPC/NBM blend, with a shift
in max snowfall amounts (10-15+" range) toward the Poconos/NEPA.
Local CWA max is in Sullivan County pushing 1.5 feet/18 inches.

There could be some changes in the Monday night period as model
spread increases with the orientation and intensity of pivoting
fgen/deformation band. We were keen to place the highest POPs
and heaviest snowfall over the NE zones.

As the coastal low deepens, gusty northerly winds are expected
over the far eastern parts of the area with max gusts in the
30-35 mph range early Monday.

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