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Central PA - Jan 31 to Feb 2 Winter Storm


MAG5035
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Quick question? Lancaster showing wintry mix keeping down amounts. Do the thermals support that? Also with the globals showing high amounts in lsv nws seems to believe the lower values from other models. Is it better to be conservative from their pt of view when there is a difference? Thanks in advance for any replies. 

 

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Looks to be up over 2" now, moderate snow. On the southern end of some enhancing on the radar.  Best snow has seemed to be residing in the north-central between UNV-IPT and NW of that line a bit so far this evening. Also another band of imbedded heavier snow working up from Frederick up toward York/Lancaster.

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Just now, MAG5035 said:

Looks to be up over 2" now, moderate snow. On the southern end of some enhancing on the radar.  Best snow has seemed to be residing in the north-central between UNV-IPT and NW of that line a bit so far this evening. Also another band of imbedded heavier snow working up from Frederick up toward York/Lancaster.

Watching that like a hawk. Might miss me just to my west. If it does, looks like I might not see much in the way of accumulations for some time. 

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Just now, paweather said:

I just had that feeling when the EURO locked in through the years it locked in. I have been doing this hobby way too long lol. 

I get ya but the euro hasn’t been rock solid so when you’re playing poker next....I’ve got some $$ for ya. :D

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33 minutes ago, paweather said:

I just had that feeling when the EURO locked in through the years it locked in. I have been doing this hobby way too long lol. 

When I saw the nooners showing the sharper trough axis I quietly felt that we were good. Didnt make sense for easterly solutions and to me and better qpf being thrown back into CTP seemed like only a matter of time. 

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Here in Carlisle, at 9:30pm I have light to moderate snow falling.  Since my last report back at 7:00 I have recorded an additional 0.8" of snow bringing my storm total to 3.2".  It has now been 12 hours since the storm began.  This equates to an average of 0.25" / hour over the past 12 hours.  My temperature is 23.0 degrees with a dew point of 22.0 degrees.  If the timing of the GFS is correct the banded heavy stuff should be here around dawn.  Then the serious stuff begins.  Lets hope any mixing does not make it above the mason dixon line.

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

When I saw the nooners showing the sharper trough axis I quietly felt that we were good. Didnt make sense for easterly solutions and to me and better qpf being thrown back into CT’s seemed like only a matter of time. 

I thought the same thing but was afraid to jinx it.

I'm tired. Too many late Euro nights this past week, and a big day tomorrow. Last obs for today:

-SN

25.0 degrees

4.9" of snow. 

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

When I saw the nooners showing the sharper trough axis I quietly felt that we were good. Didnt make sense for easterly solutions and to me and better qpf being thrown back into CT’s seemed like only a matter of time. 

Yeah lots of surprises coming. Most people that don’t follow the weather will look at this radar and say what? I can’t wait. 

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