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Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm

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Just now, CAPE said:

1612180800-ItpzqF3tO24.png

Ugh. That’s not good for up here. I need tucked into the coast to get big totals. But I totally get why you would love that look. That’s the perfect track for you. It’s just unfortunate we don’t share the same climo on coastals. It’s almost impossible for us both to Jack from a coastal because to get the deform NW of the fall line in MD you need the low close enough that’s it’s a problem for the eastern shore. 

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

If this holds its a nice storm for the entire forum. No need to be greedy lol.

You gonna give me some prior maps or leave me hanging? :lol:

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Just now, CAPE said:

If this holds its a nice storm for the entire forum. No need to be greedy lol.

Looks great for us !  Can't ask for more at this time. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL I meant the prior precip maps showing the location of the ccb 

CCB previously got as far north as Harrisburg PA down through just north of EZF or so (on the 12z)

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL I meant the prior precip maps showing the location of the ccb 

12z was like this but weaker/less organized. 18z is a bit further south.

1612224000-G5zjJwujv88.png

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Gotta say, for the first time in half a decade it feels good being in southern Maryland and looking at snowmaps.  

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So the ensemble mean snow map jackpot moved south like 30miles and we’re calling that a huge shift? That’s noise. 

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2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Gotta say, for the first time in half a decade it feels good being in southern Maryland and looking at snowmaps.  

You know I thought the same thing but climo has a way of equalizing things.  Be happy but prepared.  

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9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

1612353600-yziNBcZdDHs.png

How much of this is from the frontend vs. coastal?  Doesn't seem to imply as strong of a coastal as some of the earlier solutions.

 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but it’s close. Depends how suppressed the WAA wave gets. Unfortunately we’re on opposite sides here. You need the solution that would screw me lol. 

When I lived in Chesterfield County (while working at AKQ), quite often the 6+ inch snowstorms required some CCB/backside frontogenetic action.  Lots of  events with 1-2/2-4" front side WAA and that's it before the dry slot and eventual wrap around staying north. We did get a nice front-end thump however on Dec 18, 2009 before switching to sleet then rain. More recently, the Jan 23, 2016 event in Central VA was "made" by the CCB on day 2. The Dec 9, 2018 event was a central VA classic, wdsprd 10-12", with a flatter (and yet still elongated) CCB allowing for the duration that is needed to produce these high amounts. 

To me, what happens Sunday night and Monday will dictate whether or not the event for the RVA ends up being more an advisory/low-end warning one or something much more significant. 

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Just now, BristowWx said:

You know I thought the same thing but climo has a way of equalizing things.  Be happy but prepared.  

After the 2016 bust I think we're due, hopefully the weather agrees with me.

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

So the ensemble mean snow map jackpot moved south like 30miles and we’re calling that a huge shift? That’s noise. 

Possibly, but PSU brought up some good points. Cannot miss the capture and let it slip away.

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7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

If this holds its a nice storm for the entire forum. No need to be greedy lol.

If it holds yes. But let me illustrate my point so you stop thinking I’m imagining this then I’m done. Promise. 

I’m using the euro control because the op only runs to 90 but the op and control were very similar each run. 
985F75B1-F629-43C2-95FC-1F3F82D0CA2B.gif.499260ff1e65a9fbd5db4fd27cd135d0.gif

look at the trend the last 24 hours. It’s not just south. It’s a less amplified system each run. Suppressed. Yes this run was still “good” but were losing the big upside here with a weaker wave but more troubling (because I would totally take a 6-12” storm and because I’ve always thought the flow was too suppressive to get a too north solution) it’s literally 1 more deamplification trend of the exact same amount of each of the last 4 runs from being an insignificant event up here and not that significant anywhere frankly. I’m only a few miles south of the sharp cutoff to just minor accumulations now. And that cutoff has shifted south significantly every run. Why is everyone so sure the south trend is over and 0z won’t have that northern cutoff running through Baltimore?   More so any further de amplified and frankly were looking at a run of the mill snowstorm across VA and lower MD and no one is getting 1-2 feet.  Is staying all snow that important that it’s worth giving up the kind of big solutions we were looking at 24 hours ago with a more amplified wave?  If I was you or Frd or Richmond I would say yea. Because I don’t think an amped up tucked low works out for those spots.  But DC and Baltimore peeps seem to be rooting for less amplified too.  Is staying all snow worth giving up a 12-24” storm for a run of the mill 4-8” deal because thats where this could end up if the suppression trend continues.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

If it holds yes. But let me illustrate my point so you stop thinking I’m imagining this then I’m done. Promise. 

I’m using the euro control because the op only runs to 90 but the op and control were very similar each run. 
985F75B1-F629-43C2-95FC-1F3F82D0CA2B.gif.499260ff1e65a9fbd5db4fd27cd135d0.gif

look at the trend the last 24 hours. It’s not just south. It’s a less amplified system each run. Suppressed. Yes this run was still “good” but were losing the big upside here with a weaker wave but more troubling (because I would totally take a 6-12” storm and because I’ve always thought the flow was too suppressive to get a too north solution) it’s literally 1 more deamplification trend of the exact same amount of each of the last 4 runs from being an insignificant event up here and not that significant anywhere frankly. I’m only a few miles south of the sharp cutoff to just minor accumulations now. And that cutoff has shifted south significantly every run. Why is everyone so sure the south trend is over and 0z won’t have that northern cutoff running through Baltimore?   More so any further de amplified and frankly were looking at a run of the mill snowstorm across VA and lower MD and no one is getting 1-2 feet.  Is staying all snow that important that it’s worth giving up the kind of big solutions we were looking at 24 hours ago with a more amplified wave?  If I was you or Frd or Richmond I would say yea. Because I don’t think an amped up tucked low works out for those spots.  But DC and Baltimore peeps seem to be rooting for less amplified too.  Is staying all snow worth giving up a 12-24” storm for a run of the mill 4-8” deal because thats where this could end up if the suppression trend continues.  

I will gladly take a weaker system that gives me 6" of snow without 40 degree temps and rain in the middle. Hell fuccking yes.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

If it holds yes. But let me illustrate my point so you stop thinking I’m imagining this then I’m done. Promise. 

I’m using the euro control because the op only runs to 90 but the op and control were very similar each run. 
985F75B1-F629-43C2-95FC-1F3F82D0CA2B.gif.499260ff1e65a9fbd5db4fd27cd135d0.gif

look at the trend the last 24 hours. It’s not just south. It’s a less amplified system each run. Suppressed. Yes this run was still “good” but were losing the big upside here with a weaker wave but more troubling (because I would totally take a 6-12” storm and because I’ve always thought the flow was too suppressive to get a too north solution) it’s literally 1 more deamplification trend of the exact same amount of each of the last 4 runs from being an insignificant event up here and not that significant anywhere frankly. I’m only a few miles south of the sharp cutoff to just minor accumulations now. And that cutoff has shifted south significantly every run. Why is everyone so sure the south trend is over and 0z won’t have that northern cutoff running through Baltimore?   More so any further de amplified and frankly were looking at a run of the mill snowstorm across VA and lower MD and no one is getting 1-2 feet.  Is staying all snow that important that it’s worth giving up the kind of big solutions we were looking at 24 hours ago with a more amplified wave?  If I was you or Frd or Richmond I would say yea. Because I don’t think an amped up tucked low works out for those spots.  But DC and Baltimore peeps seem to be rooting for less amplified too.  Is staying all snow worth giving up a 12-24” storm for a run of the mill 4-8” deal because thats where this could end up if the suppression trend continues.  

You present quite the dilemma.  4-8 isn’t run of the mill for me.  I’ll be honest.  Especially 8.  But the idea of 12-24 is a dice roll I would make.  Of course rooting is not really a factor.  Things will go down as they will. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If it holds yes. But let me illustrate my point so you stop thinking I’m imagining this then I’m done. Promise. 

I’m using the euro control because the op only runs to 90 but the op and control were very similar each run. 

look at the trend the last 24 hours. It’s not just south. It’s a less amplified system each run. Suppressed. Yes this run was still “good” but were losing the big upside here with a weaker wave but more troubling (because I would totally take a 6-12” storm and because I’ve always thought the flow was too suppressive to get a too north solution) it’s literally 1 more deamplification trend of the exact same amount of each of the last 4 runs from being an insignificant event up here and not that significant anywhere frankly. I’m only a few miles south of the sharp cutoff to just minor accumulations now. And that cutoff has shifted south significantly every run. Why is everyone so sure the south trend is over and 0z won’t have that northern cutoff running through Baltimore?   More so any further de amplified and frankly were looking at a run of the mill snowstorm across VA and lower MD and no one is getting 1-2 feet.  Is staying all snow that important that it’s worth giving up the kind of big solutions we were looking at 24 hours ago with a more amplified wave?  If I was you or Frd or Richmond I would say yea. Because I don’t think an amped up tucked low works out for those spots.  But DC and Baltimore peeps seem to be rooting for less amplified too.  Is staying all snow worth giving up a 12-24” storm for a run of the mill 4-8” deal because thats where this could end up if the suppression trend continues.  

I’d sign up for a ‘run of the mill’ 6-8” storm where I’m not in a dry slot/rain so Harrisburg, PA can get 2 feet.  Not even  a hard decision for me.

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