Typhoon Tip

Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

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Just now, powderfreak said:

WTF happened overnight, ha.  Up to 0.5-1.0” or even more on some models now.

2011 

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2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

i dont know how you do it. running in the cold is the worst. id power through the cold but i cant stand the itchy legs phenomena. how do you prevent that from happening?

He has an industrial tub of Vaseline he dips himself in like a candle.

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5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

After reviewing all the overnight data and the trends we decided to go with 6-12" across CT. This is a first call map and we will likely have at least one more update before the storm to fine tune and pinpoint higher and lower ranges. Highlighted the areas to be on the higher end of the range and possibly 12+ in the NE hills. Don't believe mixing will be enough of factor to hold down amounts in the SE corner to warrant a lower range (i.e. 3-6) but figure they will probably be on the lower end. Definitely think OKXs map is a bit too low there in that regard. Once the 12Z and 00Z suite roll out today ill take a look at bufkit and fine tune the ranges. 

01_30.21_jdj_snowfall_forecast.thumb.jpg.82de83aab94524e58de7fc51ea8ae1b0.jpg

These two maps are just for our general public on social media, pretty sure everyone here knows the deal. Just thought they came out pretty cool...photoshop is fun.

01_30.21_jdj_noreaster_headlines.thumb.jpg.238fb307ca06ea9a125d3ba731943259.jpg01_30.21_jdj_northeast_overview_2.thumb.jpg.3e460c5dd3fdd569d0f703a50b64ef21.jpg

 

 

How are you feeling about the risk of downsloping in the valley? Ray's got me spooked.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Saw my trusty GGEM with 1.72” at MVL and had to refresh three times to make sure ha.  

Out of the bushes and coming for your snow.

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54 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Great trends, Keep it coming.

 

50 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looking like we go big instead of home. 

 

20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ok , no more NW tics 

 

16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

WTF happened overnight, ha.  Up to 0.5-1.0” or even more on some models now.

I don’t even need to read back to know what’s going on. :raining:

Good luck to those up north. 

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Deformation on that 06z run is back over MSS and SLK. 

This is definitely more like a 12-15 hour storm in terms of the real accumulating stuff. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Deformation on that 06z run is back over MSS and SLK. 

This is definitely more like a 12-15 hour storm in terms of the real accumulating stuff. 

Not a quick-hitter but so far away from the crawler we were following for the past week.

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

Not a quick-hitter but so far away from the crawler we were following for the past week.

Yeah that’s prob a good way to put it. If the ULL looked more like the RGEM it would be a longer duration event. But it’s a bit of an outlier in that regard. 

Most of the guidance elongates this thing aloft and keeps it moving steadily even if not super fast. 

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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Works for me.

Congrats, Trenton.

Western edge will do better than 10 to 1

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

Can we start a separate thread for Kevin's skin care?

No. must be here.

15 minutes ago, Hoth said:

How are you feeling about the risk of downsloping in the valley? Ray's got me spooked.

I wouldn't worry about it in our area, most of what we get is from the first part/phase as the storm is taking shape E of the delmarva. By the time it winds up and E MA/RI and possibly E/NE CT is getting pummled with the 2nd part its over for us. From what ive seen on rays map its pretty much in agreement with 6-10 and i have 6-12 but highlighted higher in the NE. As long as youre not expecting a blockbuster 12+ i think well be fine. Really feel like 6 is the basement for our area.

Where are you in Hamden btw, Hamden has its own little climate with hilly sheltered areas on Gaylord Mt. Rd that go up to 650ft to near 0 downtown dixwell ave in "the city"

Oh, also remember any downsloping we get in CT is usually affected in the hartford cty area with big hills to the W and E. when you get closer to the shore that doesnt really become a factor, generally speaking of course .

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3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Jersey croaked again. Modeling has been all over that.

H85 was a little warm there for a bit.

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Does anyone have the 6Z euro maps for the late evolution?  I am temporarily in Maine and following whether the final wind up is in the GoM (snowy for me) or Over NS (high and dry)

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

No. must be here.

I wouldn't worry about it in our area, most of what we get is from the first part/phase as the storm is taking shape E of the delmarva. By the time it winds up and E MA/RI and possibly E/NE CT is getting pummled with the 2nd part its over for us. From what ive seen on rays map its pretty much in agreement with 6-10 and i have 6-12 but highlighted higher in the NE. As long as youre not expecting a blockbuster 12+ i think well be fine. Really feel like 6 is the basement for our area.

Where are you in Hamden btw, Hamden has its own little climate with hilly sheltered areas on Gaylord Mt. Rd that go up to 650ft to near 0 downtown dixwell ave in "the city"

Oh, also remember any downsloping we get in CT is usually affected in the hartford cty area with big hills to the W and E. when you get closer to the shore that doesnt really become a factor, generally speaking of course .

Thanks, that puts me somewhat at ease. I'm in the southern part of town north of East Rock, so I have a bit of elevation, but nothing like the Gaylord area.

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Just now, Drz1111 said:

Does anyone have the 6Z euro maps for the late evolution?  I am temporarily in Maine and following whether the final wind up is in the GoM (snowy for me) or Over NS (high and dry)

Only goes to hr 90 on 06z run, Your good for 12" at least.

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Just now, dryslot said:

Only goes to hr 90 on 06z run, Your good for 12" at least.

I’m shamelessly IMBYing, I’m renting a house on the rocks in Cape E for the winter and I’d kill for a chance to see a full-throttle GoM blizzard.  The GFS’s late evolution is weird, but so is the UKMETs, and meanwhile the Euro and NAM look more classic.  GYX was all over this in her overnight discussion.

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Just now, Drz1111 said:

I’m shamelessly IMBYing, I’m renting a house on the rocks in Cape E for the winter and I’d kill for a chance to see a full-throttle GoM blizzard.  The GFS’s late evolution is weird, but so is the UKMETs, and meanwhile the Euro and NAM look more classic.  GYX was all over this in her overnight discussion.

I think this is going end up being too late this go round, It looks to blow up as its heading to Labrador.

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I think this is going end up being too late this go round, It looks to blow up as its heading to Labrador.

Oh I agree with that - the real boom misses me here.  I’m more wondering if we get a transfer to a GoM low that spins in the 985-990 range before reintensifying as it moves out. (12Z Euro, NAM certainly pointing that way) as opposed to the secondary storm into NS (either the GFS that misses the late phase or the 12Z UKMET that drives an intensifying 972mb low into Halifax.

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Looks like the H5 trended quite a bit further north on last night's runs.

Guess this is why the mid-level deform axis is in the 'Dacks on some of these.

ecmwf-deterministic-ne-z500_barbs-2342800.thumb.png.693809c54288c76a0ee653fb32afeae8.png

 

700mb low over head up here.  Probably a bit too far north now, ha.

ecmwf-deterministic-ne-z700_speed-2332000.thumb.png.60a339b3e9ff636a1c23f5874974b9dd.png

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like it starts pre Dawn Monday in CT and ends ore Dawn Wednesday 

Euro doesn't start for us until noon

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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like it starts pre Dawn Monday in CT and ends ore Dawn Wednesday 

What happened to Sunday?

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