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Jan 24-26th Potential Something Part 2


Chicago Storm
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4 minutes ago, homedis said:


Already a dusting... more than I imagined for the entire storm down here in Champaign lol

Looks like some cooling on the NW edge of the precip blob enough for snow...not modeled that well

 

also seems the precip shield is a tad north then modeled

 

.shouldn't last long though 

1/2 vis in DEC now

KDEC 251532Z 07013KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV012 M01/M01 A2997 RMK A02

 

 

 

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
948 AM CST MON JAN 25 2021  
   
UPDATE  
  
948 AM CST  
  
THERE ARE NO MAJOR UPDATES BEING MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS  
MORNING. TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST   
PACKAGE WILL BE REFINING SNOW TOTALS:  
  
(1) BETWEEN I-39 AND I-355 WHERE A LOCAL MINIMA MAY MATERIALIZE   
BETWEEN THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES TO OUR WEST AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT,   
RESPECTIVELY   
  
(2) ALONG THE IL/WI BORDER WHERE PERSISTENT LIFT THROUGH THE DGZ   
MAY LEAD TO FLUFFIER SNOW RATIOS  
  
(3) ALONG I-80 WHERE A TIGHT SNOW GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO  
THE DRY SLOT "SQUEEZING" THE DGZ NORTHWARD, AND  
  
(4) AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS SNOW RATIOS INCREASE AND THE UPPER-  
LEVEL WAVE FINALLY PULLS THROUGH.   
  
AT THIS POINT THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS   
LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES AND ESPECIALLY COOK COUNTY WHERE 4 TO 8,   
LOCALLY MORE, ARE PROBABLE. THE STEADIEST SNOW RATES, APPROACHING  
1"/HR, ARE EXPECTED FROM ROUGHLY 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT, WITH RATES   
GRADUALLY DECREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SNOW RATES MAY   
REMAIN HEAVY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE THROUGH DAYBREAK   
TUESDAY DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. REGARDLESS OF SNOW TOTALS,   
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH   
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING.   
  
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.   
  

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Sweet view  Enjoy the morning flakes.
I've got a bunch of friends in Northbrook, so will get you a report on how things look back home.

Haha thanks! Grew up in Northbrook, now in Champaign finishing up school (im starting my last semester of grad school today) and will be moving back to downtown Chicago this summer. Anyways, hope things trend a little better for you N IL ppl, you guys deserve an over-performer.
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Tremendous messaging by LOT on this event in my opinion from a public perspective. Never bit on the high end numbers from 2 days ago and have pretty much stayed the course on a solid 6 " event. The latest update on accumulation refinement between I-39 and I-355 is another nice touch given that area will be in between the best accumulation maxima. Sadly, I'm in that zone..

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Ricky-- any more thoughts on an advisory for lake effect?
I was at the office late last night and there wasn't a ton of time to refine the pure lake effect part of the forecast, though the forecaster handling it liked the setup. I see it as being distinctly possible with travel impacts into Wednesday. We'll see what the dayshift thinks today and I'll get to take a look at it this evening too. If there's long enough residence time, convergence and parameters look sufficient to get 2-3"+ totals, which is probably the bar we'd use vs SPS.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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58 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Trending to a 3-6" event locally.  Surprised how far north this ended up coming given the downstream blocking.

I agree. Most of the snow should fall within a few hours with the leading FGEN band. Looks favorable for some good dendrites too. Could be some lake enhancement from Mississauga to Oakville. After such a quiet and boring month, even 4” will feel like a winter wonderland.

Nice to see you back again. 

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1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said:

looks like the dry  slot has developed as modeled eating away at the precip over MO into SE IA

convection around the OH river isn't helping matters as far as moisture transport north

9am obs indicate light snow on the NW edge of the precip shield over I-72 area in central IL

it may actually stay just south of me or at best get briefly clipped for a time

some signs of "speckled" echoes developing over SE IA and western IL...likely light sleet ..we have to see if this is a start of a  "refill" of the dry slot area

 

 

 

 

 

Models last night were hinting at this morning wave staying south and kind of dry slotting a bit into the afternoon before it filled in. Wasn't sure on it materializing like that but sure looks like it will. Curious if this will impact our amounts a lot. 

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23 minutes ago, Baum said:

Tremendous messaging by LOT on this event in my opinion from a public perspective. Never bit on the high end numbers from 2 days ago and have pretty much stayed the course on a solid 6 " event. The latest update on accumulation refinement between I-39 and I-355 is another nice touch given that area will be in between the best accumulation maxima. Sadly, I'm in that zone..

I vaguely recall saying this on Saturday.

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Models last night were hinting at this morning wave staying south and kind of dry slotting a bit into the afternoon before it filled in. Wasn't sure on it materializing like that but sure looks like it will. Curious if this will impact our amounts a lot. 

I am foresee most of  the 2 wave staying north and we don't get jack

12zNAM  only has .25-.3 precip now

12z GFS has a very tight precip; gradient across the county with .25 southeast of .65 NW

 

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4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

I am foresee most of  the 2 wave staying north and we don't get jack

12zNAM  only has .25-.3 precip now

12z GFS has a very tight precip; gradient across the county with .25 southeast of .65 NW

 

We always fall right on the gradient here. Blows my mind. Wouldn't shock me if we missed mostly everything but holding hope hrrr/rap are right. Lol. At this point I would use hrrr/rap for guidance and not gfs, euro, nam. 

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3 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Agreed.. But it was for different reasoning back then. 

No. I said the low was shearing out and less snow as you go east, but the lake would counteract that for lakeshore counties leaving the counties in the middle with lower accums. That's the same reasoning I see NWS mentioning. It's been evident for a while that this would occur. My only hope is that higher ratios further north pan out, but depending on ratios is a fool's errand. 

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1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

With Des Moines already at 29" of snow for the season, they're looking to exceed 40" by tomorrow as a foot of snow there is looking like a slam dunk.  Amazing winter for them.

That's pretty crazy. How much do they normally average per winter? 

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18 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like the snow won't get going until near sunset unfortunately.  Was hoping to see some daytime snow.  Still looking good for 6-8" if 12:1 LSR work out.  If LSR end up less we'll be more in the 5-6" type range.  

It's the same here.  It'd be nice to get something higher than 10:1 so we can at least reach 6".

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7 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

And I think they average around 33" or so? They've been blessed, that's for sure. 

 

7 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

That's pretty crazy. How much do they normally average per winter? 

Yeah I think they average somewhere in the 30s.  IIRC they've had some pretty crappy winters in the past decade so I guess they were due.

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