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Chicago Storm

Jan 24-26th Something Potential

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Just now, RCNYILWX said:

Big time jump in the mean. Individual member low locations show clustering is most focused on the northern and northwest portion of the mean.

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We ain’t done yet.

image.thumb.png.0566170e9bf8e2a56356a3ad53d31aeb.png

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4 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

GEM 12Z

gem_asnow_ncus_24.png

 

GEM 0z

 

gem_asnow_ncus_19.png

Another click or two north or better yet widen the band

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43 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Need a little dose of old school meteorology on that run of the GFS. Regardless of the confluence to the northeast, the surface and h7 low track depicted would not have nearly as compact a cold sector precip shield imo. It's a close to ideal 700 mb low track and surface low track shown to get heavy snow up into the Chicago metro.

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This upgrade has absolutely destroyed realistic cold sector precip. I just don't get what they did but they did something bad.

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34 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Sometimes you just have to break out the black and whites...

Old school images, gotta remember to convert mm to inches for QPF :lmao:

 

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UK... a couple counties south of 12z, at least over here.  Many in Iowa really need the energy to be able to lift north more before blocking causes the slide eastward.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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8 minutes ago, mimillman said:

My oh my if this verifies

image.thumb.png.e42cf5f979cbfcebcb0e1ef9343b7a6c.png

I haven’t been around as much this season, but it feels like it’s been a long time since you got walloped. So I hope you get this one.

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UK... a couple counties south of 12z, at least over here.  Many in Iowa really need the energy to be able to lift north more before blocking causes the slide eastward.
sn10_acc.us_mw.png&key=2b5cf96719ec3bb58359018324ebbd4515d0dac8937cd0836bf155cf3ccd747e
This run of the UK was several hours slower. Similar latitude at 18z Monday, but while 12z run was north of EVV at that time, the 00z run is just southwest of STL. There's been a decided slowing trend on the 00z guidance thus far.

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Starting to feel a bit more hopeful about those of us in and south of the 80 corridor in LOT. It's been a while since we've gotten a solid hit of snow.

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This upgrade has absolutely destroyed realistic cold sector precip. I just don't get what they did but they did something bad.
Agree, it's generally a mess. 700 mb streamlines and RH would indicate respectable banding up into WI and it crushes precip shield to mainly I-80 and south. This is where the human input into the forecast remains important, to be able to pick out these biases/flaws in the models and look deeper into the meteorology with respect to other mass fields that aren't as fickle as QPF, which seems to especially be the case with the GFS.

Unfortunate part for this event too is that the GFS v16 hasn't been running since last night or something.

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Welp, probably should start paying attention to the ZR potential locally. Gross. 
 

Loving the eye candy though regardless. So nice to have something of substance to track and not a parade of meager shortwaves. 

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5 minutes ago, bl5585 said:

Starting to feel a bit more hopeful about those of us in and south of the 80 corridor in LOT. It's been a while since we've gotten a solid hit of snow.

Not even gonna start getting excited until at least the 00z runs tomorrow night.  If we're setting the bar at a shovelable/plowable snow, then I'm feeling that.  

The good news is that the 00z runs still have a big to major hit, just differ on the details.  Near-blizzard conditions (if not outright blizzard conditions in some areas) and impactful ice are looking more and more likely.  

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1 hour ago, mimillman said:

I’d argue DVN or RFD is better. Whatever you do, don’t move to Chicago 

 

1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said:

DVN for sure. Always get tornado warnings near by. Big wind events. Often in the heavy snow axis. Rockford isn't bad either. N IL lucks out a lot. 

I didn't do an in depth look. Just a quick glance at the sfc map. So definitely could be wrong myself. I'm partly wishcasting :snowing:

I can honestly say before I got the job I had never heard of it before. I don't have a bad thing to say about it though. I loved living in a river city, and there was a sneaky good restaurant and music scene in the QCA.

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

Appreciate your contributions on here while you're out in the area! Always enjoy your posts and those of other knowledgeable posters when lurking on the NE threads.@OceanStWx should pay us a visit on this thread if it's not too busy over there haha.

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Lots of shortwaves but hard to get too busy when it's only stacking up a tenth at a time.

A lot of spread on the northside of this system with the GEFS. Probably stuck sitting on it until late tomorrow when we get a sample of heights across Canada. Not surprisingly the ensemble is sensitive to weaker confluence, resulting in the low pressure farther north.

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not even gonna start getting excited until at least the 00z runs tomorrow night.  If we're setting the bar at a shovelable/plowable snow, then I'm feeling that.  

The good news is that the 00z runs still have a big to major hit, just differ on the details.  Near-blizzard conditions (if not outright blizzard conditions in some areas) and impactful ice are looking more and more likely.  

I'll double down on this.  Been too often that this happens only to get jacked with 48 hours.

 

I think we've all learned that sampling can easily cause this place to erupt in disgust.

 

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not even gonna start getting excited until at least the 00z runs tomorrow night.  If we're setting the bar at a shovelable/plowable snow, then I'm feeling that.  

I'm just hoping we can get in the main band with minimal/no mixing. I know it's still entirely possible but I'm at least feeling a bit better about it than I did last night.

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Haha the cut off is so sharp in NW Ohio. I’d be shocked if the southern cutoff doesn’t move to the turnpike/south suburbs of Toledo. Always seems to once we get inside 72 hours as the snow axis typically takes a SW/NE tilt as the event approaches. Odd to see a pure E-W snow map

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Really nice 700 mb low track on the UKMET for much of the Chicago metro to get in on the 700 mb deformation axis snows. dba49e1ef94b70bfcd7135b9c9a2ea08.jpg

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15 minutes ago, bl5585 said:

I'm just hoping we can get in the main band with minimal/no mixing. I know it's still entirely possible but I'm at least feeling a bit better about it than I did last night.

I'll say this.  When I think back on the really big events in Chicago like 1967, 1979, 1999, 2011, 2015... they all hit this area with similar or just slightly less totals.  So if this were to be a big dog rivaling those amounts for Chicago (big if... I am not predicting those amounts at this point!), then I would certainly take my chances here.  

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GFS with a pretty nice trowal signal. Really cooling the cloud tops between these two frames. 

All model caveats apply, but it's nice potential.

gfs_ir_us_15.png?width=1920&height=1080&

gfs_ir_us_16.png

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8 minutes ago, mimillman said:

#3 CIPS analog: Jan 31, 2011

Only makes sense that both GHD storms would show up on there.

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As has been mentioned, this system has slowed a fair amount.  

00z Euro ain't too bad, except it's occluding and weakening as the precip shield lifts into the Chicago-Detroit corridor.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

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