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WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

its going north like 100 miles every run lol

My poor SE forum brethren were beginning to latch onto this one.  Given the general lack of cold in the pattern I knew this one will be headed north.

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Let's see how the CMC screws up the 28th... 1042mb HP... moisture streaming north out of the Gulf at 162... h5 energy has been kicked out compared to 12z...

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Let's see how the CMC screws up the 28th... 1042mb HP... moisture streaming north out of the Gulf at 162... h5 energy has been kicked out compared to 12z...

And southern slider 

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18 minutes ago, yoda said:

Para GFS going to slide south of us for the 28th threat

Trend...it was totally squashed to a coastal SC storm 24 hours ago. Just like the old gfs it’s more amplified every run. This is typical gfs error. 

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2 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

GFS trying to make something happen on Feb. 1 as well, 991mb in the Chesapeake at hour 276.

Driving rain to snowstorm lol

Well then... didnt expect that on the 24 hr snow map... wow

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ill take this GFS run(with some adjustments) and call it a winter. Then i dont care if Weather will $hits on my February by telling me to come back in March.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_46.png

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1 minute ago, SnowDreamer said:

GFS trying to make something happen on Feb. 1 as well, 991mb in the Chesapeake at hour 276.

EPS supports another wave also but has it a little faster around the 31.  Imo the window for a wave to amplify along the east coast is best between 28-2 or so.  The chances to run the coast increases through that window as the blocking relaxes but the chances we lose enough cold starts to increase after the wave on the 28/29.  By the 3rd the pattern has started to progress again (after retrogression this week) and the ridge might come too far east and close the window for a time. 

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9 minutes ago, Ji said:

@psuhoffmanwhat is the max potential of this storm and how do we get it lol?

It has a lot of pattern similarities to PD1.  So that kind of system is max potential since that was the big kahuna example of that type of progression.  It’s not likely to gain a lot of latitude up the coast. It does have room to amplify to the coast though but it’s likely to move more east then north. Originally like a week ago I thought that wave had a chance to ride the coast but the pattern is progressing the way I thought but slightly slower so the wave after might be more likely to be one that can turn the corner. But we don’t need that to get a big storm if we get a favorable upper low pass with an amplified system.  The wave after is more likely to gain latitude along the coast but with that comes possible temperature issues. Way too far out to worry about it yet. 

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5 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS says see you in February...

F145DB69-908B-4292-9F60-7EF7B6D9D7E5.png

WB 0z GEFS says see you next week...

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-total_snow_10to1-2051200.thumb.png.d69e6b220932836994c4017a847b1c00.png

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Euro whiffs on our 28th wave but has an interesting intensifying low pressure on the 31st at hour 240. Wonder if that's why the EPS has two distinct waves during that 4 day period. 

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46 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Euro whiffs on our 28th wave but has an interesting intensifying costal on the 31st at hour 240. Wonder if that's why the EPS has two distinct waves during that 4 day period. 

H5 low is in NW AL at 240... with SLP near the GA/SC border at 1005mb

ETA: mod snow down by CHO at 240... no precip to DCA yet

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

Come on 06z GFS... so tasty looking at 168

damn it... it was so enticing... and pulled away at the last min :(

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Just now, yoda said:

damn it... it was so enticing... and pulled away at the last min :(

ORF gets 3 winters worth of powder

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

damn it... it was so enticing... and pulled away at the last min :(

You can’t have an ORF and DCA crush job.  Those streams can’t be crossed.  

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2 hours ago, yoda said:

damn it... it was so enticing... and pulled away at the last min :(

Seems to be + PNA pulse around this time,  which may enter into the final outcomes and encourage the system to be more of a coastal  impact for our area. 

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