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WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

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4 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

LOL :weenie:

Could someone post the sleet and fzr maps? Thanks in advance

1613714400-lAK8sYN3elo.png

1613714400-idAfYhYBlJI.png

eta- the sleet/zr up north is from tonight into tomorrow.

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42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

And now with my quoted post it's either high end results or bust. And that's totally fine and you have every damn right on earth and venus to feel such a way. Just don't expect us all to feel the same away about it.

First part is 100%. Second not. I don’t want anyone to feel any sort of way. That’s nun my business.  But I do feel the way I do. I’m a big game Hunter. Everyone knows that. I do like snow. I’ll take 2” if that’s all I can get.  But I don’t really track for that.  And frankly when it’s late in a season like this I become even more so.
 

I’ll root hard for a 2-4” snow around Xmas for example. By mid Feb I’m fully in go big or go home mode.  I’m not hunting squirrels. I’m hunting 12 foot grizzly bears and 200 point white elk with antlers that won’t fit through my door!   That’s just me. 

36 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah, this.  I can't believe that anyone seriously believes or is seriously looking for, an area-wide 6-12" event, especially in the metro DC area (I suspect PSU is being a little snarky with his comment, too).  Fun to talk about or even get a little excited at the prospect, sure.  Of course, if the models continue throwing that at us even as it's on our doorstep, then sure.  But that aside, a solid thump of snow would be great.  I don't mind that it will mix or change to sleet and ice, and completely expect that in this situation.  My hope is that we can minimize (or even eliminate?) warming up and then getting dumped on with rain.

Glad someone got my snark. Of course I don’t expect the big solutions. But every major global is spitting out 6”+ so obviously it’s an option so that’s what I’m rooting for. Dunno why we shouldn’t!  It’s like with the Eagles. For most of my 42 years I’ve fully expected them to disappoint me. But I’m still there with my brother and cousin screaming expletives that would make a sailor blush when they F up. Just because I expected the fail doesn’t mean I wasn’t rooting to be pleasantly surprised!  Snow is the same. And I don’t need every storm to hit. I know we don’t get that many big events. I’m ok with that. I’m ok when they fail. You don’t see me throwing fits during or after a fail. But when we’re tracking hell yea I want to see guidance trend towards 20”/hr rates with flakes the size of cars that will crush you if they land on you. I’m not a settle kind of guy.  But no issue with others who have different opinions on snow. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

That's most likely a factor of the colder/more confluent flow run over run change. That acts as a better defense against the bull rush with precip/warm air so it shouldnt be a surprise. Models are prob too juicy as they have been at this range quite often. However, at 72hr leads, having things shunt souther/colder could not be more welcome for our are. At least to me anyways. Warm fail crew shift will prob get replaced by suppression fail crew shift. I'm an entrepreneur and my own boss so my crew like where my yard is. 

Maybe we just put a little extra in that night deposit bag just in case!

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

1613714400-lAK8sYN3elo.png

1613714400-idAfYhYBlJI.png

eta- the sleet/zr up north is from tonight into tomorrow.

No thanks to the ZR shown here in Central VA. That would be devastating considering we still have thousands without power from the weekend

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

First part is 100%. Second not. I don’t want anyone to feel any sort of way. That’s nun my business.  But I do feel the way I do. I’m a big game Hunter. Everyone knows that. I do like snow. I’ll take 2” if that’s all I can get.  But I don’t really track for that.  And frankly when it’s late in a season like this I become even more so.
 

I’ll root hard for a 2-4” snow around Xmas for example. By mid Feb I’m fully in go big or go home mode.  I’m not hunting squirrels. I’m hunting 12 foot grizzly bears and 5 point white elk with antlers that won’t fit through my door!   That’s just me. 

Glad someone got my snark. Of course I don’t expect the big solutions. But every major global is spitting out 6”+ so obviously it’s an option so that’s what I’m rooting for. Dunno why we shouldn’t!  It’s like with the Eagles. For most of my 42 years I’ve fully expected them to disappoint me. But I’m still there with my brother and cousin screaming expletives that would make a sailor blush when they F up. Just because I expected the fail doesn’t mean I wasn’t rooting to be pleasantly surprised!  Snow is the same. And I don’t need every storm to hit. I know we don’t get that many big events. I’m ok with that. I’m ok when they fail. You don’t see me throwing fits during or after a fail. But when we’re tracking hell yea I want to see guidance trend towards 20”/hr rates with flakes the size of cars that will crush you if they land on you. I’m not a settle kind of guy.  But no issue with others who have different opinions on snow. 

Dude, I'm from Cleveland and have survived The Drive and The Fumble, The Shot, etc.  LOL!!!  Not to mention 2 extra inning Game 7 World Series losses (don't even mention 2016 or 1997 to me, please!).  So I know what you mean hahahaha!  At least you got a SB victory against the evil empire...I mean, New England Patriots!  But I still savor the Cavs win in 2016...

Anyhow, on topic.  Yes, we all sure are rooting for the 6"+, don't get me wrong.  I'm not expecting it, but I like seeing that.  Mostly, I like seeing the colder and less rainy solutions.  And given how measured your comments usually are, I could definitely tell you were being mostly snarky in your comment!

Oh, and what do nuns have to do with this? :lol:

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26 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup.  It'll give us some cushion when it starts moving back north

This. This will very likely trend north the last 48 hours. We want to get it as far south as we can now. I wouldn’t mind one more south jump tonight before the likely bleed north on guidance starts once the wave tonight gets out of the way. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

First part is 100%. Second not. I don’t want anyone to feel any sort of way. That’s nun my business.  But I do feel the way I do. I’m a big game Hunter. Everyone knows that. I do like snow. I’ll take 2” if that’s all I can get.  But I don’t really track for that.  And frankly when it’s late in a season like this I become even more so.

I’ll root hard for a 2-4” snow around Xmas for example. By mid Feb I’m fully in go big or go home mode.  I’m not hunting squirrels. I’m hunting 12 foot grizzly bears and 5 point white elk with antlers that won’t fit through my door!   That’s just me. 

I think it is cool that you know what you like and make no apologies for it.  I grew up in 70" per year climo in Upstate NY, so I hear you.

But I also understand many of those here who just want to see snow falling out of the sky and hopefully enough of it to cover everything in white.  It reminds me of home and childhood, so that is all I need to see to be happy.  So I, like many in here I suspect, will track the [email protected]# out of 1-3" snowstorms as long as there is tracking to be done!

self-weenie :weenie:

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

First part is 100%. Second not. I don’t want anyone to feel any sort of way. That’s nun my business.  But I do feel the way I do. I’m a big game Hunter. Everyone knows that. I do like snow. I’ll take 2” if that’s all I can get.  But I don’t really track for that.  And frankly when it’s late in a season like this I become even more so.
 

I’ll root hard for a 2-4” snow around Xmas for example. By mid Feb I’m fully in go big or go home mode.  I’m not hunting squirrels. I’m hunting 12 foot grizzly bears and 200 point white elk with antlers that won’t fit through my door!   That’s just me. 

Glad someone got my snark. Of course I don’t expect the big solutions. But every major global is spitting out 6”+ so obviously it’s an option so that’s what I’m rooting for. Dunno why we shouldn’t!  It’s like with the Eagles. For most of my 42 years I’ve fully expected them to disappoint me. But I’m still there with my brother and cousin screaming expletives that would make a sailor blush when they F up. Just because I expected the fail doesn’t mean I wasn’t rooting to be pleasantly surprised!  Snow is the same. And I don’t need every storm to hit. I know we don’t get that many big events. I’m ok with that. I’m ok when they fail. You don’t see me throwing fits during or after a fail. But when we’re tracking hell yea I want to see guidance trend towards 20”/hr rates with flakes the size of cars that will crush you if they land on you. I’m not a settle kind of guy.  But no issue with others who have different opinions on snow. 

Yeah, I know I've had enough 1-3/2-4 and then wintry mix/slop storms in the past five years.

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This. This will very likely trend north the last 48 hours. We want to get it as far south as we can now. I wouldn’t mind one more south jump tonight before the likely bleed north on guidance starts once the wave tonight gets out of the way. 

Of course Ji would say when we need a north trend we get...you know.  

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This. This will very likely trend north the last 48 hours. We want to get it as far south as we can now. I wouldn’t mind one more south jump tonight before the likely bleed north on guidance starts once the wave tonight gets out of the way. 

Yep, been watching the sleet and mix line push further NW all day into Ohio with the low tracking through now.  Model shift NW started last night.  Don't want it to happen, but it likely will.

 

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8 minutes ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said:

This storm has Virginia special written all over it... congrats, to be fair we got our snow last week.

Suppression fail crew has already taken  the 00z shift away from the warm fail crew.

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16 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah, I know I've had enough 1-3/2-4 and then wintry mix/slop storms in the past five years.

Yea I didn’t want to throw that part in because I know there are parts of this sub that haven’t had much snow. But I’ve had plenty of ho hum minor snowfalls lately. I want something dynamic. 

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

SREFs look just like the NAM. 

pick your emote. :yikes::lol::wacko::rolleyes:

 

 

Hope they start trending toward the globals but have they ever not been amped and north? It’s anecdotal but  I feel like anytime there is a southern slider we can at least count on the srefs to throw us .50 of digital qpf when everything else is dry.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yea I didn’t want to throw that part in because I know there are parts of this sub that haven’t had much snow. But I’ve had plenty of ho hum minor snowfalls lately. I want something dynamic. 

Yep. I'd take 6 inches over 6-8 hours opposed to 10 over 36 hours, lol. About time us DC folk see good rates that actually accumulate. 

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46 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

LOL :weenie:

Could someone post the sleet and fzr maps? Thanks in advance

Gimme a break, I ain't falling for this sh$t again.  That snow split is going to move right over us again, take it to the bank.  

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