CAPE Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: LOL Could someone post the sleet and fzr maps? Thanks in advance eta- the sleet/zr up north is from tonight into tomorrow. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted February 15 42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: And now with my quoted post it's either high end results or bust. And that's totally fine and you have every damn right on earth and venus to feel such a way. Just don't expect us all to feel the same away about it. First part is 100%. Second not. I don’t want anyone to feel any sort of way. That’s nun my business. But I do feel the way I do. I’m a big game Hunter. Everyone knows that. I do like snow. I’ll take 2” if that’s all I can get. But I don’t really track for that. And frankly when it’s late in a season like this I become even more so. I’ll root hard for a 2-4” snow around Xmas for example. By mid Feb I’m fully in go big or go home mode. I’m not hunting squirrels. I’m hunting 12 foot grizzly bears and 200 point white elk with antlers that won’t fit through my door! That’s just me. 36 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah, this. I can't believe that anyone seriously believes or is seriously looking for, an area-wide 6-12" event, especially in the metro DC area (I suspect PSU is being a little snarky with his comment, too). Fun to talk about or even get a little excited at the prospect, sure. Of course, if the models continue throwing that at us even as it's on our doorstep, then sure. But that aside, a solid thump of snow would be great. I don't mind that it will mix or change to sleet and ice, and completely expect that in this situation. My hope is that we can minimize (or even eliminate?) warming up and then getting dumped on with rain. Glad someone got my snark. Of course I don’t expect the big solutions. But every major global is spitting out 6”+ so obviously it’s an option so that’s what I’m rooting for. Dunno why we shouldn’t! It’s like with the Eagles. For most of my 42 years I’ve fully expected them to disappoint me. But I’m still there with my brother and cousin screaming expletives that would make a sailor blush when they F up. Just because I expected the fail doesn’t mean I wasn’t rooting to be pleasantly surprised! Snow is the same. And I don’t need every storm to hit. I know we don’t get that many big events. I’m ok with that. I’m ok when they fail. You don’t see me throwing fits during or after a fail. But when we’re tracking hell yea I want to see guidance trend towards 20”/hr rates with flakes the size of cars that will crush you if they land on you. I’m not a settle kind of guy. But no issue with others who have different opinions on snow. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Always in Zugzwang Posted February 15 Just now, Bob Chill said: That's most likely a factor of the colder/more confluent flow run over run change. That acts as a better defense against the bull rush with precip/warm air so it shouldnt be a surprise. Models are prob too juicy as they have been at this range quite often. However, at 72hr leads, having things shunt souther/colder could not be more welcome for our are. At least to me anyways. Warm fail crew shift will prob get replaced by suppression fail crew shift. I'm an entrepreneur and my own boss so my crew like where my yard is. Maybe we just put a little extra in that night deposit bag just in case! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BristowWx Posted February 15 If that 1.40 of ZR verified in Short Pump it would be an apocalypse 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: eta- the sleet/zr up north is from tonight into tomorrow. No thanks to the ZR shown here in Central VA. That would be devastating considering we still have thousands without power from the weekend Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stormtracker Posted February 15 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: If that 1.40 of ZR verified in Short Pump it would be an apocalypse No Pump 8 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Always in Zugzwang Posted February 15 Just now, psuhoffman said: First part is 100%. Second not. I don’t want anyone to feel any sort of way. That’s nun my business. But I do feel the way I do. I’m a big game Hunter. Everyone knows that. I do like snow. I’ll take 2” if that’s all I can get. But I don’t really track for that. And frankly when it’s late in a season like this I become even more so. I’ll root hard for a 2-4” snow around Xmas for example. By mid Feb I’m fully in go big or go home mode. I’m not hunting squirrels. I’m hunting 12 foot grizzly bears and 5 point white elk with antlers that won’t fit through my door! That’s just me. Glad someone got my snark. Of course I don’t expect the big solutions. But every major global is spitting out 6”+ so obviously it’s an option so that’s what I’m rooting for. Dunno why we shouldn’t! It’s like with the Eagles. For most of my 42 years I’ve fully expected them to disappoint me. But I’m still there with my brother and cousin screaming expletives that would make a sailor blush when they F up. Just because I expected the fail doesn’t mean I wasn’t rooting to be pleasantly surprised! Snow is the same. And I don’t need every storm to hit. I know we don’t get that many big events. I’m ok with that. I’m ok when they fail. You don’t see me throwing fits during or after a fail. But when we’re tracking hell yea I want to see guidance trend towards 20”/hr rates with flakes the size of cars that will crush you if they land on you. I’m not a settle kind of guy. But no issue with others who have different opinions on snow. Dude, I'm from Cleveland and have survived The Drive and The Fumble, The Shot, etc. LOL!!! Not to mention 2 extra inning Game 7 World Series losses (don't even mention 2016 or 1997 to me, please!). So I know what you mean hahahaha! At least you got a SB victory against the evil empire...I mean, New England Patriots! But I still savor the Cavs win in 2016... Anyhow, on topic. Yes, we all sure are rooting for the 6"+, don't get me wrong. I'm not expecting it, but I like seeing that. Mostly, I like seeing the colder and less rainy solutions. And given how measured your comments usually are, I could definitely tell you were being mostly snarky in your comment! Oh, and what do nuns have to do with this? 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted February 15 Just now, stormtracker said: No Pump No heat pump. Better have a woodstove or a generator. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
clskinsfan Posted February 15 Para sucks out here. We toss. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15 Just now, clskinsfan said: Para sucks out here. We toss. You're all alone. 2 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted February 15 26 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yup. It'll give us some cushion when it starts moving back north This. This will very likely trend north the last 48 hours. We want to get it as far south as we can now. I wouldn’t mind one more south jump tonight before the likely bleed north on guidance starts once the wave tonight gets out of the way. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WesternFringe Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: First part is 100%. Second not. I don’t want anyone to feel any sort of way. That’s nun my business. But I do feel the way I do. I’m a big game Hunter. Everyone knows that. I do like snow. I’ll take 2” if that’s all I can get. But I don’t really track for that. And frankly when it’s late in a season like this I become even more so. I’ll root hard for a 2-4” snow around Xmas for example. By mid Feb I’m fully in go big or go home mode. I’m not hunting squirrels. I’m hunting 12 foot grizzly bears and 5 point white elk with antlers that won’t fit through my door! That’s just me. I think it is cool that you know what you like and make no apologies for it. I grew up in 70" per year climo in Upstate NY, so I hear you. But I also understand many of those here who just want to see snow falling out of the sky and hopefully enough of it to cover everything in white. It reminds me of home and childhood, so that is all I need to see to be happy. So I, like many in here I suspect, will track the [email protected]# out of 1-3" snowstorms as long as there is tracking to be done! self-weenie 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chris78 Posted February 15 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Para sucks out here. We toss. Doesn't it give Winchester over 6" lol Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
osfan24 Posted February 15 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: First part is 100%. Second not. I don’t want anyone to feel any sort of way. That’s nun my business. But I do feel the way I do. I’m a big game Hunter. Everyone knows that. I do like snow. I’ll take 2” if that’s all I can get. But I don’t really track for that. And frankly when it’s late in a season like this I become even more so. I’ll root hard for a 2-4” snow around Xmas for example. By mid Feb I’m fully in go big or go home mode. I’m not hunting squirrels. I’m hunting 12 foot grizzly bears and 200 point white elk with antlers that won’t fit through my door! That’s just me. Glad someone got my snark. Of course I don’t expect the big solutions. But every major global is spitting out 6”+ so obviously it’s an option so that’s what I’m rooting for. Dunno why we shouldn’t! It’s like with the Eagles. For most of my 42 years I’ve fully expected them to disappoint me. But I’m still there with my brother and cousin screaming expletives that would make a sailor blush when they F up. Just because I expected the fail doesn’t mean I wasn’t rooting to be pleasantly surprised! Snow is the same. And I don’t need every storm to hit. I know we don’t get that many big events. I’m ok with that. I’m ok when they fail. You don’t see me throwing fits during or after a fail. But when we’re tracking hell yea I want to see guidance trend towards 20”/hr rates with flakes the size of cars that will crush you if they land on you. I’m not a settle kind of guy. But no issue with others who have different opinions on snow. Yeah, I know I've had enough 1-3/2-4 and then wintry mix/slop storms in the past five years. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted February 15 This storm has Virginia special written all over it... congrats, to be fair we got our snow last week. 1 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BristowWx Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This. This will very likely trend north the last 48 hours. We want to get it as far south as we can now. I wouldn’t mind one more south jump tonight before the likely bleed north on guidance starts once the wave tonight gets out of the way. Of course Ji would say when we need a north trend we get...you know. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
clskinsfan Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Doesn't it give Winchester over 6" lol Its like 4 then a ton of sleet. I was joking obviously. I would have 3 inches of frozen concrete come Saturday morning. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dendrimer77 Posted February 15 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This. This will very likely trend north the last 48 hours. We want to get it as far south as we can now. I wouldn’t mind one more south jump tonight before the likely bleed north on guidance starts once the wave tonight gets out of the way. Yep, been watching the sleet and mix line push further NW all day into Ohio with the low tracking through now. Model shift NW started last night. Don't want it to happen, but it likely will. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chris21 Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: This storm has Virginia special written all over it... congrats, to be fair we got our snow last week. Suppression fail crew has already taken the 00z shift away from the warm fail crew. 1 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted February 15 SREFs look just like the NAM. pick your emote. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
anotherman Posted February 15 SREFs look just like the NAM. pick your emote. They’re not ‘amped and north’? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
clskinsfan Posted February 15 18z HRRR was tons colder at 48 than the NAM fwiw. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted February 15 Just now, anotherman said: They’re not ‘amped and north’? lol ofc they are. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted February 15 16 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Yeah, I know I've had enough 1-3/2-4 and then wintry mix/slop storms in the past five years. Yea I didn’t want to throw that part in because I know there are parts of this sub that haven’t had much snow. But I’ve had plenty of ho hum minor snowfalls lately. I want something dynamic. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chris21 Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: SREFs look just like the NAM. pick your emote. Hope they start trending toward the globals but have they ever not been amped and north? It’s anecdotal but I feel like anytime there is a southern slider we can at least count on the srefs to throw us .50 of digital qpf when everything else is dry. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 15 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yea I didn’t want to throw that part in because I know there are parts of this sub that haven’t had much snow. But I’ve had plenty of ho hum minor snowfalls lately. I want something dynamic. Yep. I'd take 6 inches over 6-8 hours opposed to 10 over 36 hours, lol. About time us DC folk see good rates that actually accumulate. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wonderdog Posted February 15 Nice to see a Gulf lp "modeled" to pass to our south and east. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Snowchaser Posted February 15 Updated* We should see winter storm watches tomorrow. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IronTy Posted February 15 46 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: LOL Could someone post the sleet and fzr maps? Thanks in advance Gimme a break, I ain't falling for this sh$t again. That snow split is going to move right over us again, take it to the bank. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
