• Member Statistics

    16,544
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    BobbyB
    Newest Member
    BobbyB
    Joined
BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

Recommended Posts

14 minutes ago, tim123 said:

You go tug and the cold switches sides. 

Yep! I think Siberia will be able to handle my hotness and still be cold enough to snow. I think?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Yeah they did the same thing they do every event lol

They put the High end as the expected.. Except for east of Ontario of course;)

SnowAmt90Prcntl (12).png

I’m completely befuddled by the 6” over Rochester. I’ll admit that KBUF has a good record (way better than me) but I just can’t understand it. I also have trouble understanding their position on N Erie. The map reflects a widespread event but everything,but maybe the Canadian, shows anemic local stuff- except on the ridge. And even the Canadian product wouldn’t give the city of Roc 6”. 
6” would be roughly 50% of our seasonal total to put it in perspective. 
Are they trolling us? Lolimage.thumb.png.024df34ae36e31cbec366da8c710fe2a.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good ole transition zone..

Turning attention to eastern Lake Ontario region, after a period of
more widespread light snow later Tuesday morning into early
Tuesday afternoon, expect lake enhanced snows to redevelop east
of Lake Ontario later Tuesday and Tuesday night. With a cap
rising to at least 10k ft and strong west-southwest convergent
flow pointed at central and northern Tug Hill region, amounts
over a foot look likely in those areas from late Tuesday
afternoon through late Tuesday night. Winds becoming more west-
northwest later Tuesday night will eventually make this band
more transient. Away from the Tug Hill, expect snow totals in
the 3-6 inch range. West winds gusting over 30 mph and temps in
the 20s will result in better chance of blowing snow and reduced
visibility in open areas east of Lake Ontario later Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Lower temps will also allow even the lower
elevations to see accumulating snow unlike what occurred during
the last heavy lake enhanced snow event this past weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Potent upstream shortwave trough swings through the eastern Great
Lakes early Wednesday morning. With its passage, veering wind flow
to the northwest will shove lake snows off both lakes to the south.
Deep synoptic moisture to start the period will then gradually
deplete as the shortwave trough advances east with lake snows
weakening by Wednesday afternoon. With the moving bands and shorter
fetch of the lakes, accumulations will likely be limited to an inch
or two, possibly a bit more near the southeast end of Lake Ontario
where 3 to 4 inches will be possible. By late Wednesday afternoon,
falling equilibrium levels and the incoming surface ridge will
further suppress snowfall accumulations. Winds will also be in the
process of backing to the west by Wednesday evening and then to the
southwest Wednesday night. Although weak, there may be just enough
support left to produce some minor accumulations as a lake snow band
lifts north into and across the Buffalo Metro area.

Wednesday night, any remaining lake snows will end as H850T warm and
inversion heights fall. Later on, a warm front will then track
northeast across the eastern Great Lakes, which might produce some
minor accumulations as we head into Thursday.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Please, oh please let that blob of snow continue moving along the Thruway corridor WITHOUT falling apart so Rochester and Syracuse can join in.

Hush it!

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Northern Erie added to the warning... Transition Zone special for Lackawanna, South Buffalo, West Seneca!

 

Northern Erie-
Including the city of Buffalo
128 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in the most persistent lake
  snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie county. The greatest snow amounts in
  northern portions of Erie county will occur from Lackawanna and
  Blasdell to West Seneca, Elma and Marilla and points southward.

Really wish they would divide the county into thirds. Most of “northern” Erie County will be lucky to see advisory criteria snows.

And I’m not understanding the SWS that includes NF and Buffalo. I just drove down NFB from Robinson to Main Street, right through the SWS area, and outside of a small burst of moderate snow well north of the 290, I barely saw a flake.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Remember when NYC got hit with 3 Nor’easters in the middle of March, 2018?  The models may not look promising atm but hang tight.  Still have another 2 solid months of “potential”.;)

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting forecast by KBUF for Erie County tonight/tomorrow.  Would almost think they are going with good old fashion guessing.  Only 2 models showing the band get that far north are RGEM which barely gets the 6” line to the city, and the ARW which is always too aggressive.  Even the forecast by KBUF is a bit contradicting.  The AFD says 3” or less in the metro but their map has the 8-12” line all the way up to downtown.  Glancing through the local maps and not really seeing anyone showing anything even close to the KBUF map.  They are the pros so let’s see!  

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Interesting forecast by KBUF for Erie County tonight/tomorrow.  Would almost think they are going with good old fashion guessing.  Only 2 models showing the band get that far north are RGEM which barely gets the 6” line to the city, and the ARW which is always too aggressive.  Even the forecast by KBUF is a bit contradicting.  The AFD says 3” or less in the metro but their map has the 8-12” line all the way up to downtown.  Glancing through the local maps and not really seeing anyone showing anything even close to the KBUF map.  They are the pros so let’s see!  

Yeah the last 24 hours models don't get above southtowns with the band. I think the band is over lake erie right now, and it looks to be going pretty far north.

WUNIDS_map?num=8&type=N0R&mapx=400&mapy=

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah the last 24 hours models don't get above southtowns with the band. I think the band is over lake erie right now, and it looks to be going pretty far north.

WUNIDS_map?num=8&type=N0R&mapx=400&mapy=

I’m beyond intrigued to see just how this thing sets up in the next couple hours.  Nothing but a hot mess blob right now.  The slight band that looked to be forming is just going to push onshore way north into Canada.  This things got a lot of work to do next couple hours...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

I’m beyond intrigued to see just how this thing sets up in the next couple hours.  Nothing but a hot mess blob right now.  The slight band that looked to be forming is just going to push onshore way north into Canada.  This things got a lot of work to do next couple hours...

And that’s my big issue with local meteorology...all day models show the band “hugging” the Lake Erie shoreline, this must be a default to the mean. It almost never happens that way yet that’s how they forecast almost every time. I believe these models have a “southern bias “ to them based on algorithms within the model outputs. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Radar still looks really wonky...anyone else think this may not manifest?

Starting to get a little action filling in back over the lake now.  0z starting to come in all south very sharp cutoff on the northern side.  Can’t really get a read off the radar what to expect.  Winds mid lake are backing all the way to SW...

 

CB30848B-6885-4F09-BEA8-83B2FD8F7702.gif

F5A7061C-F5D2-4465-9C34-B170C7A78FD5.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Starting to get a little action filling in back over the lake now.  0z starting to come in all south very sharp cutoff on the northern side.  Can’t really get a read off the radar what to expect.  Winds mid lake are backing all the way to SW...

 

CB30848B-6885-4F09-BEA8-83B2FD8F7702.gif

F5A7061C-F5D2-4465-9C34-B170C7A78FD5.jpeg

Interestingly enough Todd on WIVB just mentioned the last event was modeled too far south and the this one is another close call...at least they’re noticing this trend...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS has the 26th low going over lake ontario before transfer.  Rain for western NY verbatim.

only about 1000 miles difference between the gfs and euro.  Neither will verify as is...as we know.

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just got a lightning alert on my Tempest. Distance of 21 to 24 miles. To the south, that distance is an arc from Angola to Boston to Holland. Definitely one of the coolest things about the Tempest, and both the lightning detector and the anemometer are working great since I ran a 12 foot mast up the back of my house (putting the station at around 28 feet above the ground level).

 

 

FD2F8A06-C51D-417B-80C3-DD693521DA09.jpeg

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I live in North Carolina and LOVE snow. Unfortunately I'm not in the Mountains of NC so I'm lucky to see 3-5" TOTAL per winter! 

  Anyway, hoping you guys can direct me to some awesome live streaming cams up your way so I can see what lake effect snow looks like!! I've only found a few on YouTube and they are railcams. One is in North East PA, the other in Fairport N.Y.. Thx in advance y'all!!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, davenc said:

I live in North Carolina and LOVE snow. Unfortunately I'm not in the Mountains of NC so I'm lucky to see 3-5" TOTAL per winter! 

  Anyway, hoping you guys can direct me to some awesome live streaming cams up your way so I can see what lake effect snow looks like!! I've only found a few on YouTube and they are railcams. One is in North East PA, the other in Fairport N.Y.. Thx in advance y'all!!

https://www.northernchateau.com/northernchateau.htm

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Swing and a BIG miss for BUF on this one.  Band is already back way south.  Only an inch here.  Not looking like it was that much better right on the northern southern Erie boarder.  Just saw a live shot from Quaker crossing plaza... maybe 3-4” there?  Not even close to the warning snowfall they were calling for.  BW how you make out further south?  Looked like you were in the band for quite a few hours? 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Swing and a BIG miss for BUF on this one.  Band is already back way south.  Only an inch here.  Not looking like it was that much better right on the northern southern Erie boarder.  Just saw a live shot from Quaker crossing plaza... maybe 3-4” there?  Not even close to the warning snowfall they were calling for.  BW how you make out further south?  Looked like you were in the band for quite a few hours? 

I’m at work in Hamburg Village. Looks like about  4” of new snow. Not nearly as much as I was expecting. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Swing and a BIG miss for BUF on this one.  Band is already back way south.  Only an inch here.  Not looking like it was that much better right on the northern southern Erie boarder.  Just saw a live shot from Quaker crossing plaza... maybe 3-4” there?  Not even close to the warning snowfall they were calling for.  BW how you make out further south?  Looked like you were in the band for quite a few hours? 

Band will fizzle during the day with some drier air moving in but will refire this evening. I’m confident it will make it back to the distant southtowns of Hamburg/OP but I’m not sure it will make it any further north than that. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Swing and a BIG miss for BUF on this one.  Band is already back way south.  Only an inch here.  Not looking like it was that much better right on the northern southern Erie boarder.  Just saw a live shot from Quaker crossing plaza... maybe 3-4” there?  Not even close to the warning snowfall they were calling for.  BW how you make out further south?  Looked like you were in the band for quite a few hours? 

Yeah right around 4" here. Eden got nearly 10" the band was here for awhile but heaviest portions of band were just south. 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF

2021&cp=0

Getting some good snow depth in Boston Hills 

2021&cp=0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah right around 4" here. Eden got nearly 10" the band was here for awhile but heaviest portions of band were just south. 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF

2021&cp=0

I was pleasantly shocked thus am received about 2.5” grass all covered. NWS mentions a few inches for just about everyone tomorrow, GFS is still bipolar on next weeks storm and Euro is a tick away from a pretty good shot...yup should be interesting 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.