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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

NS looks more amped to me than 12z. 

well try again at 0z with brand new solutions

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GFS has 0.2 of precip.  Euro is 0.8 and CMC is over an inch.

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37 minutes ago, Ji said:

we live in an area where its a win to stay all frozen. We have been what NC was in the Larry cosgrove days

I’m not the judge of what is success. But better is better and worse is worse. 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Man, GFS doubled down.

So did the Para, but the Para is a Euro-like solution lol. Actually it keeps frozen much closer to us for a fair bit of the storm, wonder how close it is to a really good solution

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Man, GFS doubled down.

Its been complete garbage for anywhere on the east coast for at least the last 3 runs. If it ends up right, I would be a tad surprised, but not shocked.

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

So did the Para, but the Para is a Euro-like solution lol. Actually it keeps frozen much closer to us for a fair bit of the storm, wonder how close it is to a really good solution

DEA80B6F-ED5A-463C-B6F3-60F6568477E4.thumb.jpeg.0eb14cf773a0b41a0840a391e4f2e8bd.jpeg

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Yeah, the para seems to be warm at the start but is slow enough with the southern wave that cold bleeds in and changes most to mix/snow. A little different than the euro front end thump. This sort of evolution isn't common here but to me makes sense with the overall suppressive flow once the NS wave gets out of the way. The whole setup seems pretty sensitive to the relative timing and strength of these 2 features, so I don't think a solution locks in until we are 72 hours out or so.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Para is better than I thought, going from the disco here.  I mean, it's not ideal...but enough to keep on keeping on

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Ji fringed but he's in the blue at least

Everyone is fringed...it’s such a narrow area of good snow. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Everyone is fringed...it’s such a narrow area of good snow. 

Yep, and that will change and shift around 22 more times between now and Tuesday. It's a baby step up from a thread-the-needle event.

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3 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Well this fell apart fast.  

The GFS/GEFS never had it put together in the first place 

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6 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

The GFS/GEFS never had it put together in the first place 

That's true... but I'm inclined to believe the GFS/GEFS and the 20% of EPS members that equally suck. I'm going for pessimism here -- trying a new strategy. 

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FWIW, no idea how the GEPS performs, but it also says no and most of its members have shown nada for its past four runs. Which is interesting since the Canadian had been somewhat in on this storm. It's 00z and yesterdays 12z and 00z would be outliers among its members.

1611640800-h8EqoOj64Lw.png

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

way way too complicated. Bob Chill and I are out

Bob Chill has been out for a few years now, hasn't he? He's the smartest of us all by a long shot.

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Bob Chill has been out for a few years now, hasn't he? He's the smartest of us all by a long shot.

Been no storms for two years 

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46 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yep, and that will change and shift around 22 more times between now and Tuesday. It's a baby step up from a thread-the-needle event.

Exactly. That was the point I was making earlier. We could very well win the lottery here. But how can anyone feel safe. The snow zone is so narrow a normally nominal shift threatens anyone even if you were in the dead bullseye the run before. 

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56 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Bob Chill has been out for a few years now, hasn't he? He's the smartest of us all by a long shot.

He was here last winter I think.  I don’t suspect lack of storms is why he isn’t here

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Doesn't hurt that pre storm highs Saturday upper 20s low 30s highs  and Sunday low mid 30s highs ( per Euro ) ....so a bit below normal going in is another plus in the back pocket. 

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