RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 30 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Probably means suppression depression here. The kiss of death is “probably looks good for most” when it comes from a SNE’er . Not when it comes from Will though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 57 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: See my post above to Scott....directly mentioning where the vort energy is tracking. Yesterday's Euro had it slicing through ROC....no dice for snow on that. That 06z run had it now running into AVP and likely SNE. That has a chance. yeah.. I'm a bit late to the show this morning ... sure - I haven't really been too focused on the Euro as of late - this is going to sound like a 'double standard' ( sort of...) but, even though I still think it is the superior guidance for normalizing fractal errors and the blurring of perturbation ...all that jazz, and there are more scenarios than not where/when it should be more trusted at intervals at or less than D4.5... ...this was not one of those times ... There's a few reason. One, it's still 108 (~) as of 06Z's release... and so technically erstwhile runs get a bit of forgiveness if you will. I've seen the Euro go from more crazy than a three-headed loon, right into incontrovertible lucidity passing from D5 to 4 on more than one occasion, and once it locks on to said "feels like the right" or least course of regret, usually...it wins... Two, this situation really provides an opportunity to go from crazy to sane quickly... I think we see that on this next run, and these overnighters sort of hint in that direction/lean so... Also, yesterday it did something that I don't like - it took a follow up wave and over amplified it, and that screwed up/guaranteed it's next three cycles would have wave-spacing problems.. Notice the more progressive solutions didn't really do that? Doesn't mean these latter runs are more right.. .but, weighting toward a consensus and knowing the Euro tends to do that at D5.5 or so anyway (over dig...) that didn't lend to it's bullying in a kicker- ... "So far" a feel pretty vindicated for sans that run and the 00z - ... Lasly ( three in this list..) I know I touched on this yesterday; the NAO ( I feel..) is legit this time, and is falling, and...we are in the sort of "invisible" ( god I know I used the word - ugh...so bush) phases of it's influence, in that these waves are going to start feeling an exertion on their track, that sort of like leads the more coherent presentation of the block... I see this sort of "synergy" all the time.. The S/W start moving a certain way through the Pac sometimes before the -EPO erupts... So this is a John-ism and tfwiw - I think these waves out there beyond 1/2 are probably going to feel a S forcing so we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Still believe this is quite marginal for my CT peeps. Good look for ski country however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z EPS looks pretty decent for a lot of the forum...it would prob be a wide precip shield given the ULL. nice to see the EPS mean < 1000 mb... particularly, when the antecedent run cycles were starting out at 1008 ... 1006 ... 1002 ....1000 ...now nicking 998 .. Shedding as we near is something I've grown to look for ? I'm not sure it is a proven deterministic method or anything, but I've just sort of echoed this in retrospect so many times it's built into my unconscious processor, that when you see that it's mirroring a +D(confidence) ... I bet also the spread is smeared NW when we see this multi-subsequent run trending like that... I haven't ever bothered to go back and check because Euro products are VIP lounge material - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah.. I'm a bit late to the show this morning ... sure - I haven't really been too focused on the Euro as of late - this is going to sound like a 'double standard' ( sort of...) but, even though I still think it is the superior guidance for normalizing fractal errors and the blurring of perturbation ...all that jazz, and there are more scenarios than not where/where it should be more trusted at intervals at or less than D4.5... ...this was not one of those times ... There's a few reason. One, it's still 108 (~) as of 06Z's release... and so technically erstwhile runs get a bit of forgiveness if you will. I've seen the Euro go from more crazy than a three-headed loon, right into incontrovertible lucidity passing from D5 to 4 on more than one occasion, and once it locks on to said "feels like the right" or least course of regret, usually...it wins... Two, this situation really provides an opportunity to go from crazy to sane quickly... I think we see that on this next run, and these overnighters sort of hint in that direction/lean so... Also, yesterday it did something that I don't like - it took a follow up wave and over amplified it, and that screwed up/guaranteed it's next three cycles would have wave-spacing problems.. Notice the more progressive solutions didn't really do that? Doesn't mean these latter runs are more right.. .but, weighting toward a consensus and knowing the Euro tends to do that at D5.5 or so anyway (over dig...) that didn't lend to it's bullying in a kicker- ... "So far" a feel pretty vindicated for sans that run and the 00z - ... Lasly ( three in this list..) I know I touched on this yesterday; the NAO ( I feel..) is legit this time, and is falling, and...we are in the sort of "invisible" ( god I know I used the word - ugh...so bush) phases of it's influence, in that these waves are going to starve feeling an exertion on there track that sort of like leads the more coherent presentation of the block... I see this sort of "synergy" all the time.. The S/W start moving a certain way through the Pac sometimes before the -EPO erupts... So this is a John-ism and tfwiw - I think these wave out there beyond 1/2 is probably going to feel a S forcing so we'll see... Yeah thats fair analysis...I still think one should always be leery of H5 tracks that far NW precisely because energy can try and round that curve "tucked in"....so you end up with a vort slicing into NY State....a sfc low over ACK, but getting flooded with warm air in the midlevels.....versus having that energy further SE. I do think we're starting to see a response to the downstream blocking a bit....I've noticed the last couple runs are slowing the departure of the 1/2 system which is creating wave-spacing issues with the 1/4 system...forcing it south versus some of the more amped runs (that you didn't like yesterday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 This his thread the needle with no high pressure. Kev could do well in deep elevated interior of this goes far enough south . I like elevated interior unless we get a perfect roll . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah thats fair analysis...I still think one should always be leery of H5 tracks that far NW precisely because energy can try and round that curve "tucked in"....so you end up with a vort slicing into NY State....a sfc low over ACK, but getting flooded with warm air in the midlevels.....versus having that energy further SE. I do think we're starting to see a response to the downstream blocking a bit....I've noticed the last couple runs are slowing the departure of the 1/2 system which is creating wave-spacing issues with the 1/4 system...forcing it south versus some of the more amped runs (that you didn't like yesterday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 You can see how the 6z run on the right definitely is slower and more amped at 500 as it leaves New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: This his thread the needle with no high pressure. Kev could do well in deep elevated interior of this goes far enough south . I like elevated interior unless we get a perfect roll . FWIW, there IS a high pressure system in a decent spot, it's just not very cold. But it does help feed dry air into the system. This was something lacking in the 12/5 system which really made the marginal airmass hurt more...esp for lower elevations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 52 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: Oh. Is it even possible to get a snowy nor’easter without that cold high to the north ?? BOX: Yes... you can snow without a high pressure - The author of this write says so right there in the next predicates of that same sentence ..."...Unless the track/dynamics are ideal..." But I get the frustration ? It does seem to be part of the climate change puzzle/adaptive ... I've opined this in the past, how more and more so it seems we are losng our 'marginal' set up ( they were always kind of a non-disclosed emergency savings account ) "flop direction" - droll. As that parenthesis metaphor implies, ... if the models had that kind of 'hole punch' 850 mb thermal layout, where it's +1 or even +2 C in the general ambient layout, with a couple of pocketed 0C nested areas, and then the models run a cyclone SE ... at 40 to 50 N that usually means the whole thing ends up -1C in an isothermal snow. I'm not sure why that was the case; actually pretty reliable. The models seemed to 'not see' detailed dynamical forcings, systemically, beyond shorter ranges ...seemingly as though they don't come into physical detection in the processing until like ... < 36 hours ...sometimes not at all and we depend on now-casting to see it happening. Nowadays, the flop direction doesn't seem to pay as many dividends.. It might be that the models are just better - that could be it altogether. They just see those delicate dynamical forcing more so out further in time. Either way... whether it is climate rearing in insidiously subtle ways, or...modeling nuance ... ( probably both ), ... I have had this discussion with other Mets off-line, that it seems more and more so, we need to really have a direct cold sourcing than we used to have to rely upon. We could snow big aggregates in rotted polar air mass at a given dynamic profile 30 years ago, and that same dynamic profile ends up cat paws now. something like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: FWIW, there IS a high pressure system in a decent spot, it's just not very cold. But it does help feed dry air into the system. This was something lacking in the 12/5 system which really made the marginal airmass hurt more...esp for lower elevations. If you look at mid level temps I thinks this shows up pretty clearly. While not cold, the above freezing mid level air does get swept out to sea in the wake of the weekend system. It at least allows us to start from a place of temp profiles supportive for snow, vs needing to cool the entire air mass via lifting/evaporation. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: FWIW, there IS a high pressure system in a decent spot, it's just not very cold. But it does help feed dry air into the system. This was something lacking in the 12/5 system which really made the marginal airmass hurt more...esp for lower elevations. I just took the box highlighted paragraph verbatim and maybe they mean in general there is no stout high , the high i see is A bit ENE of Maine and relatively Weak (1018-1020) as this is making a close pass , correct . I do like that you say this is better than no high or a high to our SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Hopefully this a pastejob of mashed potatoes . We need to build a solid base for the mild days behind storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 hour ago, dryslot said: 8-10" on the mean is a great look for the next two. Swan dives into the Kennebec from Pit2. 20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: This his thread the needle with no high pressure. Kev could do well in deep elevated interior of this goes far enough south . I like elevated interior unless we get a perfect roll . That hurts to read. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 A driving rainstorm would be nice we haven't had one of those in a while. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: If you look at mid level temps I thinks this shows up pretty clearly. While not cold, the above freezing mid level air does get swept out to sea in the wake of the weekend system. It at least allows us to start from a place of temp profiles supportive for snow, vs needing to cool the entire air mass via lifting/evaporation. Yeah....and while the high is kind of weak, it is at least there feeding the dry dewpoints into the system to help with evap cooling. Compare this one: With this one (12/5): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah....and while the high is kind of weak, it is at least there feeding the dry dewpoints into the system to help with evap cooling. Compare this one: With this one (12/5) Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Brutal. Heh... this may go down as the great marginal winter - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 goofus ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Congrats ema, crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 That’s a potent little sucker for the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Vort energy actually gets forced underneath SNE that run....which is why it was really good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 SENH/SWME ftw on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Now we talking. All of inland SNE hammer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 The SLP gets captured and just crawls along the coast on the v16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Wish we could lock 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: The SLP gets captured and just crawls along the coast on the v16. Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Vort energy actually gets forced underneath SNE that run....which is why it was really good. Need to see other guidance pick up on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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