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Significant upper middle Atlantic S/CNE mix/snow potential Jan 3+


Typhoon Tip
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57 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

See my post above to Scott....directly mentioning where the vort energy is tracking.

Yesterday's Euro had it slicing through ROC....no dice for snow on that. That 06z run had it now running into AVP and likely SNE. That has a chance.

yeah.. I'm a bit late to the show this morning ... sure -

I haven't really been too focused on the Euro as of late - this is going to sound like a 'double standard' ( sort of...) but, even though I still think it is the superior guidance for normalizing fractal errors and the blurring of perturbation ...all that jazz, and there are more scenarios than not where/when it should be more trusted at intervals at or less than D4.5...

...this was not one of those times ...

There's a few reason.  

One, it's still 108 (~) as of 06Z's release...  and so technically erstwhile runs get a bit of forgiveness if you will. I've seen the Euro go from more crazy than a three-headed loon, right into incontrovertible lucidity passing from D5 to 4 on more than one occasion, and once it locks on to said "feels like the right" or least course of regret, usually...it wins...

Two, this situation really provides an opportunity to go from crazy to sane quickly... I think we see that on this next run, and these overnighters sort of hint in that direction/lean so... Also, yesterday it did something that I don't like - it took a follow up wave and over amplified it, and that screwed up/guaranteed it's next three cycles would have wave-spacing problems.. Notice the more progressive solutions didn't really do that?  Doesn't mean these latter runs are more right.. .but, weighting toward a consensus and knowing the Euro tends to do that at D5.5 or so anyway (over dig...) that didn't lend to it's bullying in a kicker- ... "So far" a feel pretty vindicated for sans that run and the 00z - 

... Lasly ( three in this list..) I know I touched on this yesterday; the NAO ( I feel..) is legit this time, and is falling, and...we are in the sort of "invisible" ( god I know I used the word - ugh...so bush) phases of it's influence, in that these waves are going to start feeling an exertion on their track, that sort of like leads the more coherent presentation of the block... I see this sort of "synergy" all the time.. The S/W start moving a certain way through the Pac sometimes before the -EPO erupts... So this is a John-ism and tfwiw - I think these waves out there beyond 1/2 are probably going to feel a S forcing so we'll see...

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z EPS looks pretty decent for a lot of the forum...it would prob be a wide precip shield given the ULL.

image.png.795589f1f3935d2c277d8f5dba07b861.png

 

nice to see the EPS mean < 1000 mb... particularly, when the antecedent run cycles were starting out at 1008 ... 1006 ... 1002 ....1000 ...now nicking 998 .. Shedding as we near is something I've grown to look for ?  I'm not sure it is a proven deterministic method or anything, but I've just sort of echoed this in retrospect so many times it's built into my unconscious processor, that when you see that it's mirroring a +D(confidence) ... I bet also the spread is smeared NW when we see this multi-subsequent run trending like that... I haven't ever bothered to go back and check because Euro products are VIP lounge material -

 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah.. I'm a bit late to the show this morning ... sure -

I haven't really been too focused on the Euro as of late - this is going to sound like a 'double standard' ( sort of...) but, even though I still think it is the superior guidance for normalizing fractal errors and the blurring of perturbation ...all that jazz, and there are more scenarios than not where/where it should be more trusted at intervals at or less than D4.5...

...this was not one of those times ...

There's a few reason.  

One, it's still 108 (~) as of 06Z's release...  and so technically erstwhile runs get a bit of forgiveness if you will. I've seen the Euro go from more crazy than a three-headed loon, right into incontrovertible lucidity passing from D5 to 4 on more than one occasion, and once it locks on to said "feels like the right" or least course of regret, usually...it wins...

Two, this situation really provides an opportunity to go from crazy to sane quickly... I think we see that on this next run, and these overnighters sort of hint in that direction/lean so... Also, yesterday it did something that I don't like - it took a follow up wave and over amplified it, and that screwed up/guaranteed it's next three cycles would have wave-spacing problems.. Notice the more progressive solutions didn't really do that?  Doesn't mean these latter runs are more right.. .but, weighting toward a consensus and knowing the Euro tends to do that at D5.5 or so anyway (over dig...) that didn't lend to it's bullying in a kicker- ... "So far" a feel pretty vindicated for sans that run and the 00z - 

... Lasly ( three in this list..) I know I touched on this yesterday; the NAO ( I feel..) is legit this time, and is falling, and...we are in the sort of "invisible" ( god I know I used the word - ugh...so bush) phases of it's influence, in that these waves are going to starve feeling an exertion on there track that sort of like leads the more coherent presentation of the block... I see this sort of "synergy" all the time.. The S/W start moving a certain way through the Pac sometimes before the -EPO erupts... So this is a John-ism and tfwiw - I think these wave out there beyond 1/2 is probably going to feel a S forcing so we'll see...

Yeah thats fair analysis...I still think one should always be leery of H5 tracks that far NW precisely because energy can try and round that curve "tucked in"....so you end up with a vort slicing into NY State....a sfc low over ACK, but getting flooded with warm air in the midlevels.....versus having that energy further SE.

I do think we're starting to see a response to the downstream blocking a bit....I've noticed the last couple runs are slowing the departure of the 1/2 system which is creating wave-spacing issues with the 1/4 system...forcing it south versus some of the more amped runs (that you didn't like yesterday).

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah thats fair analysis...I still think one should always be leery of H5 tracks that far NW precisely because energy can try and round that curve "tucked in"....so you end up with a vort slicing into NY State....a sfc low over ACK, but getting flooded with warm air in the midlevels.....versus having that energy further SE.

I do think we're starting to see a response to the downstream blocking a bit....I've noticed the last couple runs are slowing the departure of the 1/2 system which is creating wave-spacing issues with the 1/4 system...forcing it south versus some of the more amped runs (that you didn't like yesterday).

image.png.5aac8368283fe5d50ff343916b482cdb.pngimage.png.ba9b58d7f83e5133004f18d2db275cc7.png

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This his thread the needle with no high pressure. 
 

Kev could do well in deep elevated interior of this goes far enough south . I like elevated interior unless we get a perfect roll .

FWIW, there IS a high pressure system in a decent spot, it's just not very cold. But it does help feed dry air into the system. This was something lacking in the 12/5 system which really made the marginal airmass hurt more...esp for lower elevations.

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52 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

Oh. 
 

Is it even possible to get a snowy nor’easter without that cold high to the north ??

 

BOX:

5AB5B701-71ED-4F7E-BCEE-845F3E5E77BF.jpeg

Yes... you can snow without a high pressure -

The author of this write says so right there in the next predicates of that same sentence ..."...Unless the track/dynamics are ideal..."

But I get the frustration ?   

It does seem to be part of the climate change puzzle/adaptive ... I've opined this in the past, how more and more so it seems we are losng our 'marginal' set up ( they were always kind of a non-disclosed emergency savings account )  "flop direction" - droll.  

As that parenthesis metaphor implies, ... if the models had that kind of 'hole punch' 850 mb thermal layout, where it's +1 or even +2 C in the general ambient layout, with a couple of pocketed 0C nested areas, and then the models run a cyclone SE ... at 40 to 50 N that usually means the whole thing ends up -1C in an isothermal snow.  I'm not sure why that was the case; actually pretty reliable. The models seemed to 'not see' detailed dynamical forcings, systemically, beyond shorter ranges ...seemingly as though they don't come into physical detection in the processing until like ... < 36 hours ...sometimes not at all and we depend on now-casting to see it happening. 

Nowadays, the flop direction doesn't seem to pay as many dividends..  It might be that the models are just better - that could be it altogether. They just see those delicate dynamical forcing more so out further in time.  Either way... whether it is climate rearing in insidiously subtle ways, or...modeling nuance ... ( probably both ), ... I have had this discussion with other Mets off-line, that it seems more and more so, we need to really have a direct cold sourcing than we used to have to rely upon.  We could snow big aggregates in rotted polar air mass at a given dynamic profile 30 years ago, and that same dynamic profile ends up cat paws now. something like that...

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

FWIW, there IS a high pressure system in a decent spot, it's just not very cold. But it does help feed dry air into the system. This was something lacking in the 12/5 system which really made the marginal airmass hurt more...esp for lower elevations.

If you look at mid level temps I thinks this shows up pretty clearly. While not cold, the above freezing mid level air does get swept out to sea in the wake of the weekend system. It at least allows us to start from a place of temp profiles supportive for snow, vs needing to cool the entire air mass via lifting/evaporation.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

FWIW, there IS a high pressure system in a decent spot, it's just not very cold. But it does help feed dry air into the system. This was something lacking in the 12/5 system which really made the marginal airmass hurt more...esp for lower elevations.

I just took the box highlighted paragraph verbatim and maybe they mean in general there is no stout high , the high i see is A bit ENE of Maine and relatively Weak (1018-1020) as this is making a close pass , correct . I do like that you say this is better than no high or a high to our SE

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

8-10" on the mean is a great look for the next two.

Swan dives into the Kennebec from Pit2.

20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This his thread the needle with no high pressure. 
 

Kev could do well in deep elevated interior of this goes far enough south . I like elevated interior unless we get a perfect roll .

That hurts to read.

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8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

If you look at mid level temps I thinks this shows up pretty clearly. While not cold, the above freezing mid level air does get swept out to sea in the wake of the weekend system. It at least allows us to start from a place of temp profiles supportive for snow, vs needing to cool the entire air mass via lifting/evaporation.

Yeah....and while the high is kind of weak, it is at least there feeding the dry dewpoints into the system to help with evap cooling.

Compare this one:

image.png.2d7bb71de02e543b5c6d7e21ebdcb03d.png

 

With this one (12/5):

image.png.6598008acf7c7d0bbb752153f07d7395.png

 

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