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Hoosier

January 2021 General Discussion

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If you're in IL/IN or anywhere else that has been struggling so far, the good news is that January almost has no choice but to be better than December.  Better and good are not necessarily the same thing though.

The last Nina January that was warmer than average across the region was 2012. 

cd172_58_139_13_358_15_57_45_prcp.png.d36584f305fabc3c3b36af50458132ef.png

 

Will we get a warmer than average January this time or can the cold show up and have staying power? 

 

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If you're in IL/IN or anywhere else that has been struggling so far, the good news is that January almost has no choice but to be better than December.  Better and good are not necessarily the same thing though.
The last Nina January that was warmer than average across the region was 2012. 
cd172_58_139_13_358_15_57_45_prcp.png.d36584f305fabc3c3b36af50458132ef.png
 
Will we get a warmer than average January this time or can the cold show up and have staying power? 
 
Even though it was warmer than normal, January 2012 happened to be the best month of that winter, two decent storms and the only AN snow month of the cool season. The second event in January 2012 had nice high ratio fluff with the longest duration of 1/4 mile visibility in snow at ORD and MDW since GHD I and caused nightmare travel on a Friday afternoon commute.

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euro weeklies look good mid January on. until then, hopefully we can continue to get snows even if they melt. This coincides with the talk of pattern change we have had for a while.. with little doubt the 2nd half of January will be wintrier than the 1st half. 

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Final CFS summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202101.thumb.gif.bfb6e6addd99f36a983b11669955b63c.gif

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.202101.thumb.gif.cbd25b3a4327f4128696ea192302d5fe.gif

 

If the ECMWF weeklies are on the right track, you can toss that CFS January prog as far as you can throw it.  

Here's a loop of the weeklies put together by a frequent poster on the New England sub:

 

 

 

Because there were very valid fears about a warm outcome this winter and we see already how mild December was, the increasingly likely development of major high latitude blocking in the Arctic and Atlantic can only be a good thing. We take and hope more of the subforum can benefit this month and likely beyond.

 

Can probably also include this in the medium-long range thread.

 

PS: Happy New Year to all! Here's to a snowy next couple months and eventually better things to come in 2021 than what 2020 gave us.

 

 

 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

If the ECMWF weeklies are on the right track, you can toss that CFS January prog as far as you can throw it.  

Here's a loop of the weeklies put together by a frequent poster on the New England sub:

 

 

 

 

Because there were very valid fears about a warm outcome this winter and we see already how mild December was, the increasingly likely development of major high latitude blocking in the Arctic and Atlantic can only be a good thing. We take and hope more of the subforum can benefit this month and likely beyond.

 

Can probably also include this in the medium-long range thread.

 

PS: Happy New Year to all! Here's to a snowy next couple months and eventually better things to come in 2021 than what 2020 gave us.

 

 

 

 

 

As far as whether the CFS look has a chance to verify, I think it's gonna come down to how much damage is done in the first week or two of the month because it does look better with time.

Happy New Year to you and everyone as well.

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The system late Saturday into Sunday has overachiever written on it.  Nice deepening/neg tilted with some decent lapse rates to work with.  Thermal profiles could be better but I could envision an area of 3-5" and not entirely out of the realm of possibility to flirt with warning criteria in some spots, imo.

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39 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The system late Saturday into Sunday has overachiever written on it.  Nice deepening/neg tilted with some decent lapse rates to work with.  Thermal profiles could be better but I could envision an area of 3-5" and not entirely out of the realm of possibility to flirt with warning criteria in some spots, imo.

Agree, we have seen setups like this end up very well.

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53 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Agree, we have seen setups like this end up very well.

It's funny... when I was looking at it I thought that it reminded me of 2/5/11.  Just how it looks and where it's coming from.  So I checked CIPS out of curiosity and guess what showed up as the #1 analog?  2/5/11.

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26 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It's funny... when I was looking at it I thought that it reminded me of 2/5/11.  Just how it looks and where it's coming from.  So I checked CIPS out of curiosity and guess what showed up as the #1 analog?  2/5/11.

oh wow. That event was awesome. will be interesting to see what happens. Its frustrating as hell to see these snows melt, but we've not done too shabby in the snowfall department this so far pacific dominated winter..with whisperings of a much wintrier pattern a few weeks away.

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The system late Saturday into Sunday has overachiever written on it.  Nice deepening/neg tilted with some decent lapse rates to work with.  Thermal profiles could be better but I could envision an area of 3-5" and not entirely out of the realm of possibility to flirt with warning criteria in some spots, imo.

Hopefully you do better then the snowfall forecasts for extreme NE IL the last two events. 

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8 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Hopefully you do better then the snowfall forecasts for extreme NE IL the last two events. 

Running out of time for substantial northward shifts.  :(  Looks like very little in the city and north.  The shot at 3-5" would be toward the southeastern LOT cwa.

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28 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Running out of time for substantial northward shifts.  :(  Looks like very little in the city and north.  The shot at 3-5" would be toward the southeastern LOT cwa.

Yeah not expecting anything here. Looks quiet till mid month after this weekend. Still see problems with not enough cold air with potential systems.

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The wet and overcast New Year's Day this year marks the start of the long crappy New Year's weekend. Suicide weather tomorrow followed by more rain Sunday. Fifty shades of January 2020 on the horizon over the next 1-2 weeks.

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15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Happy New Year to all my fellow weather weenies. May 2021 be filled with fun weather and a lot less covid!

Looking forward to springtime tornadoes already? 

Happy New Year!

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2 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Would be nice if this was right, but 2 days is forever in this pattern.

 

20210101 noaa d3 map.png

I feel like this is the kind of storm that tends to overproduce in MI. I’d give myself a bun if I could.

Edit: I didn’t see the earlier posts saying the same thing - makes me feel more confident!

 

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