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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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Geez. The 0z gfs dropped over 1 3/4" of zr here 

Trend on this thing is pretty concerning. And it’s not 7 days out. Closing inside 72 hours with strengthening model agreement.


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So now we have the ICON, Canadian, RGEM all showing a prolonged ice storm with the wedge holding in the CAD region for the entire storm. The NAM is still a major storm for many but moisture looks less, GFS is a major ice storm but not as far south as other guidance as well as the EURO. In my opinion models will continue to get a better handle on the wedge as today and tomorrow storm leaves the region. There is a ton of cold air to work with and timing looks to be setting up nicely as the high pressure system slides right into a favorable spot and strengths before the moisture flows into our region. Global models have been trending colder for this storm, but I think the mesoscale models will lead the way starting today and tomorrow. I think the biggest takeaway from this setup would be that all models are in agreement of a 1036-1038 high sitting in a favorable spot that historically produces ice storms in VA, NC and even upstate SC. The ingredients are there for a major ice storm over a greater area compared to Saturday's system.

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1 minute ago, weatherlover said:

Is this a reliable model?   

In my opinion it runs colder at the surface than any other model, I would say the NAM did a better job of Saturday's system inside 36 hours. 

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33 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

So now we have the ICON, Canadian, RGEM all showing a prolonged ice storm with the wedge holding in the CAD region for the entire storm. The NAM is still a major storm for many but moisture looks less, GFS is a major ice storm but not as far south as other guidance as well as the EURO. In my opinion models will continue to get a better handle on the wedge as today and tomorrow storm leaves the region. There is a ton of cold air to work with and timing looks to be setting up nicely as the high pressure system slides right into a favorable spot and strengths before the moisture flows into our region. Global models have been trending colder for this storm, but I think the mesoscale models will lead the way starting today and tomorrow. I think the biggest takeaway from this setup would be that all models are in agreement of a 1036-1038 high sitting in a favorable spot that historically produces ice storms in VA, NC and even upstate SC. The ingredients are there for a major ice storm over a greater area compared to Saturday's system.

I agree, but what are we missing? Local guys all saying Rain and some talking severe .... 

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Just now, PantherJustin said:

I agree, but what are we missing? Local guys all saying Rain and some talking severe .... 

Probably what it will end up being.  Another 33-35 and rain for most.  Maybe another decent ice event towards the NC/VA line but a cold miserable rain for most

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21 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

I agree, but what are we missing? Local guys all saying Rain and some talking severe .... 

We are just now getting into the short range guidance time-frame. I think if runs continue to show this threat and increase the chances today and tomorrow they will change their tune some.

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The NAM is better at depicting the BL but don't rely on it for QPF when looking at the next ice potential.

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Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Seems like the NAM has been underdone on qpf since it underwent its upgrade. 

Yep noticed this on Saturday's storm, it dried up a lot in the 36-48 hour time-frame and then trended wetter and wetter to play catch-up under 36 hours.

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I know this is salt in the wound to many but below is the US snow cover map as of 06 UTC 02/15/21.  It shows 70.49% coverage.  Will likely increase today as Mississippi and Tennessee fill in more.  This is historical territory.  Previous record is 70.9% on Jan 12, 2011.  1966 and 1978 also were in the 70% range.   

nsm_depth_2021021505_National.jpg

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3 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

I know this is salt in the wound to many but below is the US snow cover map as of 06 UTC 02/15/21.  It shows 70.49% coverage.  Will likely increase today as Mississippi and Tennessee fill in more.  This is historical territory.  Previous record is 70.9% on Jan 12, 2011.  1966 and 1978 also were in the 70% range.   

nsm_depth_2021021505_National.jpg

The western Dakotas are even angrier 

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21 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The NAM is better at depicting the BL but don't rely on it for QPF when looking at the next ice potential.

Agreed.... I’ve always thought NAM Thermals were superior in these parts for CAD, but about useless otherwise Jmo. Most Times you could just avg the EURO/GFS QPF Cut that avg in 1/2 and use NAM Thermals and be in the ballpark 

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Crazy to think it’s been 4 days locked in the 30’s with precipitation each day but not a single flake.

For the Wednesday/Thursday event, it looks like the same areas will get hit. Retreating HPs mean areas outside the absolute max CAD regions will quickly go to rain. Also, just like last event, 32 does not mean efficient freezing rain especially with the gigantic and deep warm nose above the ground. I agree another significant ice storm looks likely and it may very well have the same footprint as last time. Never forecast against climo for marginal ice events. I’ll speak for myself and the rest of us in the Triangle who have seen more 33 degrees and rain in the last week than anyone would like to see in a lifetime: please kick this pattern please 

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6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Crazy to think it’s been 4 days locked in the 30’s with precipitation each day but not a single flake.

For the Wednesday/Thursday event, it looks like the same areas will get hit. Retreating HPs mean areas outside the absolute max CAD regions will quickly go to rain. Also, just like last event, 32 does not mean efficient freezing rain especially with the gigantic and deep warm nose above the ground. I agree another significant ice storm looks likely and it may very well have the same footprint as last time. Never forecast against climo for marginal ice events. I’ll speak for myself and the rest of us in the Triangle who have seen more 33 degrees and rain in the last week than anyone would like to see in a lifetime: please kick this pattern please 

Here ya go.

 

EuRNXJVWQA80avd.jpg

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6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Crazy to think it’s been 4 days locked in the 30’s with precipitation each day but not a single flake.

For the Wednesday/Thursday event, it looks like the same areas will get hit. Retreating HPs mean areas outside the absolute max CAD regions will quickly go to rain. Also, just like last event, 32 does not mean efficient freezing rain especially with the gigantic and deep warm nose above the ground. I agree another significant ice storm looks likely and it may very well have the same footprint as last time. Never forecast against climo for marginal ice events. I’ll speak for myself and the rest of us in the Triangle who have seen more 33 degrees and rain in the last week than anyone would like to see in a lifetime: please kick this pattern please 

Honestly I would take a torch at this point since we are not getting any snow.

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1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Honestly I would take a torch at this point since we are not getting any snow.

A torch and a dry period to get a head start on yard work. My yard is in the worst condition since I’ve owned this house. 
Watching the weather channel and Monroe, La has had 2 4”+ events since January and it’s currently snowing and 17 degrees. Ugh. This was the real deal arctic blast and just missed us. 

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4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

A torch and a dry period to get a head start on yard work. My yard is in the worst condition since I’ve owned this house. 
Watching the weather channel and Monroe, La has had 2 4”+ events since January and it’s currently snowing and 17 degrees. Ugh. This was the real deal arctic blast and just missed us. 

Yep we can thank the mountains for that.

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Anyone wishing for ice should think twice 

Southside Electric Cooperative in southern Virginia this morning still has 77% of their customers out this morning 48 hours after the event. Their area was torn up by ice

Our lineman need a break. They work harder than any NFL Lineman ever does.

Jacking and restringing wire and establishing equipotential grounding zones around the lineman to protect them from generator back feeds is tedious hard work.

https://poweroutage.us/area/state/virginia

 

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12z NAM looks pretty close to 6z. According to the NAM the High pressure is not really retreating like we've seen in storms before. It basically provides a NE flow for most of the storm, I mean it takes 12-14 hrs to move from NW PA to NH. Actually the high strengthens from a 1033-1037 over this time period. To me a retreating high would be exiting much faster than whats being shown.

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Just now, Met1985 said:

Yeah too much of a good thing. This pattern can suck it. One of the biggest disappointments in recent years with blocking and such.

Most definitely the worst stretch of being so close yet so far away I have ever experienced here with days of cold rain rubbing in the salt. I hate having to wait all the way until next winter for another shot.

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1 hour ago, Upstate Tiger said:

I know this is salt in the wound to many but below is the US snow cover map as of 06 UTC 02/15/21.  It shows 70.49% coverage.  Will likely increase today as Mississippi and Tennessee fill in more.  This is historical territory.  Previous record is 70.9% on Jan 12, 2011.  1966 and 1978 also were in the 70% range.   

nsm_depth_2021021505_National.jpg

Snow is overdone in southern vA and most of NoVA. It’s mostly brown ground north of Fredericksburg to DC, and south of Petersburg.

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