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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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55 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Ok you are right and I am sorry. I have not been doing well outside of weather with a friend permanently damaged health wise by COVID and he lost his dad to the illness. I suppose I let that carry over to my posts here without thinking it through first. Anyway, I am awaiting the RAH discussion to see their line of thought given the latest runs for next week.

I hope things get better bud.

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59 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Ok you are right and I am sorry. I have not been doing well outside of weather with a friend permanently damaged health wise by COVID and he lost his dad to the illness. I suppose I let that carry over to my posts here without thinking it through first. Anyway, I am awaiting the RAH discussion to see their line of thought given the latest runs for next week.

Good to focus on the important things eyewall and maybe consider the less potentially disappointing distractions.   After all this is just weather.

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1 hour ago, eyewall said:

Ok you are right and I am sorry. I have not been doing well outside of weather with a friend permanently damaged health wise by COVID and he lost his dad to the illness. I suppose I let that carry over to my posts here without thinking it through first. Anyway, I am awaiting the RAH discussion to see their line of thought given the latest runs for next week.

I knew several people who lost loved ones to COVID and had family members in hospital and still ill with it. We are in this together fighting for one another and things will get better. Keeping you in my thoughts and prayers. 

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2 hours ago, eyewall said:

Ok you are right and I am sorry. I have not been doing well outside of weather with a friend permanently damaged health wise by COVID and he lost his dad to the illness. I suppose I let that carry over to my posts here without thinking it through first. Anyway, I am awaiting the RAH discussion to see their line of thought given the latest runs for next week.

Praying for Better times 

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2 hours ago, eyewall said:

Ok you are right and I am sorry. I have not been doing well outside of weather with a friend permanently damaged health wise by COVID and he lost his dad to the illness. I suppose I let that carry over to my posts here without thinking it through first. Anyway, I am awaiting the RAH discussion to see their line of thought given the latest runs for next week.

Hey Eyewall,

Sorry for what your going through. I will keep you and your friends going through these tough times in my thoughts and prayers!! 

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2 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said:

Hey Eyewall,

Sorry for what your going through. I will keep you and your friends going through these tough times in my thoughts and prayers!! 

Thank you! 

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Raleigh came in with a tough discussion to read for those hoping for next week:

Significant model disagreements remain for Monday night into Tuesday
morning. ECMWF has been taking the surface low west of the mountains
while the GFS has been keeping a secondary low offshore. Recent runs
of the GFS However have started to trend more towards the Euro,
which would yield a warmer solution with most of the Mid-Atlantic in
the warm sector.  There will be an influence of northerly flow at
the surface  to begin the day with cold air trying to make its last
efforts to move into the area before the strengthening surface low
pressure system in the Deep South moves into the Ohio Valley.
Biggest threat looks to be a brief period of freezing rain early
Tuesday morning quickly changing to rain by late morning. Still more
details needed to be sorted out for this period as uncertainty
remains high. Tuesday both long range models are in good agreement
that the aforementioned low pressure system from the Gulf will
slightly strengthen and move up across GA and to the west of our
region. Rainfall is expected to last through Tuesday ending late
Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Expect dry conditions on
Wednesday with temperatures in the 50s.

 

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6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Raleigh came in with a tough discussion to read for those hoping for next week:

Significant model disagreements remain for Monday night into Tuesday
morning. ECMWF has been taking the surface low west of the mountains
while the GFS has been keeping a secondary low offshore. Recent runs
of the GFS However have started to trend more towards the Euro,
which would yield a warmer solution with most of the Mid-Atlantic in
the warm sector.  There will be an influence of northerly flow at
the surface  to begin the day with cold air trying to make its last
efforts to move into the area before the strengthening surface low
pressure system in the Deep South moves into the Ohio Valley.
Biggest threat looks to be a brief period of freezing rain early
Tuesday morning quickly changing to rain by late morning. Still more
details needed to be sorted out for this period as uncertainty
remains high. Tuesday both long range models are in good agreement
that the aforementioned low pressure system from the Gulf will
slightly strengthen and move up across GA and to the west of our
region. Rainfall is expected to last through Tuesday ending late
Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Expect dry conditions on
Wednesday with temperatures in the 50s.

 

Yeah that was a bit of a gut punch.  Its completely reasonable to be negative about our chances now.

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5 hours ago, eyewall said:

Ok you are right and I am sorry. I have not been doing well outside of weather with a friend permanently damaged health wise by COVID and he lost his dad to the illness. I suppose I let that carry over to my posts here without thinking it through first. Anyway, I am awaiting the RAH discussion to see their line of thought given the latest runs for next week.

Praying for you bud. Praying for your friends and family affected.

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3 hours ago, eyewall said:

Raleigh came in with a tough discussion to read for those hoping for next week:

Significant model disagreements remain for Monday night into Tuesday
morning. ECMWF has been taking the surface low west of the mountains
while the GFS has been keeping a secondary low offshore. Recent runs
of the GFS However have started to trend more towards the Euro,
which would yield a warmer solution with most of the Mid-Atlantic in
the warm sector.  There will be an influence of northerly flow at
the surface  to begin the day with cold air trying to make its last
efforts to move into the area before the strengthening surface low
pressure system in the Deep South moves into the Ohio Valley.
Biggest threat looks to be a brief period of freezing rain early
Tuesday morning quickly changing to rain by late morning. Still more
details needed to be sorted out for this period as uncertainty
remains high. Tuesday both long range models are in good agreement
that the aforementioned low pressure system from the Gulf will
slightly strengthen and move up across GA and to the west of our
region. Rainfall is expected to last through Tuesday ending late
Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Expect dry conditions on
Wednesday with temperatures in the 50s.

 

sheesh, I can't quite say I'm in agreement... I mean, I'm probably being heretical, I don't want to bet against the collective knowledge of a bunch of mets, but this feels a little reductive and throws too much influence to the Euro, which hasn't exactly been stellar. No model has been particularly stellar here.

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Hey all, couple of things to keep in mind for CADs as we go through another model cycle:

1. I generally don't like writing CADs and associated systems off until high resolution models get a crack at them. Seems pretty obvious, but in the equation governing the strength of CADs (which exists!) height of mountains is indeed a variable. topography is going to be better rendered on hi resolution models and mountains will be represented more accurately and not as smoothed out as globals. I trust them a little more!

2. Let's talk low pressure track. If you've been here a few years, it's probably been drilled into your mind that LPs can't just plow into wedges and stable air, and that's true! This is a true thing and generally low pressures will seek areas of lower pressure and ribbons of low level vorticity (almost always where the coastal front and CAD boundary meet). I think it's fair to be dubious of any low pressure track that rides up i95 if there's a 1035+ high anchored in the favored CAD region. Once again, this is something that high resolution models resolve a little better. 

3. Now, one thing I want to clear up, is that it's perfectly reasonable, as the GFS showed, for a low pressure to track from Birmingham to Knoxville to Pittsburg. This is because you're on the other side of the Apps- there's no wedge here. In fact, lower pressures exist on the western fringe of the apps during CAD events, and some models are seeing this and tracking the parent low pressures up this lower side. The upper level vorticity, if it's spurring this, is likely too far away to really spark anything over the coast. 

Here's hoping the 00z cycles show some interesting solutions!

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This GFS run is not going to be what we wanted. Everything’s evolving further west 

I still don’t believe IMO that a 1034 HP parked up top will not at least deliver ice to the northern forum here. Low pressure is not that far off to where it could easily trend toward a better solution but overall not a good run agreed there

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Just now, Buddy1987 said:

I still don’t believe IMO that a 1034 HP parked up top will not at least deliver ice to the northern forum here. Low pressure is not that far off to where it could easily trend toward a better solution but overall not a good run agreed there

Yea, that HP has trended weaker from the mid 1040’s from a couple days ago. Also, the arctic air orientation continues to bury it due south into the southern plains, so any high to the north of us is working with table scraps to send our way. I’m sure the CAD is underdone but the setup is fading for us to stand a chance against these more amped solutions. I think the slp track on this run was more reasonable than the euro but, yea, we don’t have much to work with on the cold air front 

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pretty terrible cycle so far, my spiel on CADs isn't really relevant when your high is all the way in mid Quebec

image.thumb.png.0fcaabb2b5a3c0d84ae7c920d3844dc8.png

  

I'll give it a few more cycles but it will take some shifts to get out of the hole tonight put us in

 

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I'm saving this, don't know if I have ever seen a temperature map like the UK shows here. 8 in Mississippi and almost 60 in Raleigh. 

sfct.us_ma (11).png

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So hypothetically, what would it take to get that arctic air pointed at us instead of just battering helplessly against the mountains.  Where should the HP be?

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5 hours ago, cbmclean said:

So hypothetically, what would it take to get that arctic air pointed at us instead of just battering helplessly against the mountains.  Where should the HP be?

Pennsylvania 

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5 hours ago, wncsnow said:

I'm saving this, don't know if I have ever seen a temperature map like the UK shows here. 8 in Mississippi and almost 60 in Raleigh. 

sfct.us_ma (11).png

This is what I was talking about yesterday in our thread.

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06z GFS considerably colder than 00z with the Tuesday system. Has HP slightly stronger and further south and maintains a wedge look through the system. Verbatim freezing line stays on va border instead of shooting north in other runs

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