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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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1 hour ago, CaryWx said:

Yes but the cold air retreating allows the LP amplification in my view not the other way around.  Modeling this cold vortex has and remains to be problematic. 

If I were a betting man...we will not see this brutal cold in the triangle...or only for a very short-lived period of time.  It will still be chilly (not warm) for sure but this is February after all

Fair enough!

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11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

ICON is considerably warmer than 12z with considerably less precip. Does not have the weekend ice storm

Agreed much warmer run and more north with the initial wave on thur/fri. Idk about you all but I can see this easily being a cold rain for even up my way and the models being too aggressive with the cold push. Wouldn’t shock me anyhow considering the run to run inconsistencies this year. 

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20 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That’s exactly where you’d expect it to be too

The heavier the precip I tend to favor a rain solution when the CAD is marginal.  I get that the models often underestimate the CAD, but as shown, I'll favor the warmer forecast.  Not to mention I'd rather not drive home from Cincy during an ice storm.  :wacko:

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7 hours ago, PantherJustin said:

Am I the only person who actually would like an ice storm? Yes I lived thru 2002. I just like extreme weather 

No, you are not. This comes up periodically during ice storms being modeled. While I realize a lot of people do not like them I do. I like all wild weather frozen to summer storms etc.  granted no power sucks. It a real ice storm is a wonder to see. I have been in several large ice storms and while nerve wracking at times with the popping of trees, watching it unfold I find very interesting. I would rather have ice than rain and 33 any day 

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3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

What's weird is the post Brad just made for Thursday night is showing widespread ICE and colder temps... not sure what model he's using 

It almost looks like the NAM, but for later in the weekend, not Thursday night

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4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

What's weird is the post Brad just made for Thursday night is showing widespread ICE and colder temps... not sure what model he's using 

18z NAM it appears. 

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4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The NAM I'm looking at is warmer than what he's showing... he must be showing an in house model

Yeah it could be the GRAF. I’m not at a computer right now to check. 

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1 minute ago, BullCityWx said:

I get that it’s easy to be frustrated but the ICON clearly has the storm. It oscillated slightly but it’s still there.

The GFS is frustrating for each threat

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7 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

What?

It barely advances the freezing line past the Virginia border counties and does so as precipitation moves out. It was well north and had less precip. Storm is still there but not an ice storm for the Carolinas as had been depicted on the earlier 12z run

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3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It barely advances the freezing line past the Virginia border counties and does so as precipitation moves out. It was well north and had less precip. Storm is still there but not an ice storm for the Carolinas as had been depicted on the earlier 12z run

So am I just imagining what it shows for Durham? 

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The ups and downs this season is worse than the ups and downs in Days of Our Lives. It sucks there is not as much data going into the models to produce accurate results. I hope the Triad folks get a snowy surprise this weekend! 

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Just now, WeatherWeenie87 said:

The ups and downs this season is worse than the ups and downs in Days of Our Lives. It sucks there is not as much data going into the models to produce accurate results. I hope the Triad folks get a snowy surprise this weekend! 

Yeah, I think I will just wait until the Hrrr gets into range and go from there. Right now it's a coin toss.

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The terrible trend in our models today is the lobe of polar vortex getting stretched and elongated instead of pressing southward some and pressing the cold with it.

Last 4 GFS runs: 

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh132_trend.thumb.gif.1cd5039310827991122ad86bdbe54af0.gif

Over the course of 5 runs, the core of the lobe has shifted from Duluth to north of Maine. Now, I don't think the eastward movement is terrible; our high is going to follow this feature and for our purposes I'm not sure that lateral high placement matters a ton when it's already so large and CAD is likely. But the last frame (and the euro/ukmet has this look too), with the vortex getting stretched like a piece of overworked bubblegum, is no bueno, because it keeps our high and our cold press to the north. 

Whether or not this is going to occur or not is beyond me; at this point you're basically guessing and teasing out fluid dynamics and if it "looks right". I don't favor any solution, it's been a humbling last few weeks and nailing down patterns has proved to be like grabbing a greased watermelon. But I think this is a reasonable solution and we should be prepared if it continues to trend like this. 

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For those who haven’t looked, GSP seems about as confident as everyone else

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

just went out and put a little gas in my generator that I bought during the December 2005 ice storm.  Started right up with one gentle pull.  Tuesday morning at 200AM when it’s freezing rain and 27 degrees, 10 mules won’t be able to start it!

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