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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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24 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Nail in the coffin?

wsi_feb-update.jpg

Just because it's colder than average in the west doesn't mean it can't also be colder than average in parts of the east. February 2013 was cold in much of the west but was also cold in a good part of the east. Two analogs for February 2021 had a "cold everywhere in the U.S." type of pattern with the core of the cold in the north central states. The southeast was the least cold but still only average. Two such years were 1971 and 1989.

A negative PNA can still mean cold in the east if the NAO/AO is also negative.  If the NAO/AO stay negative through February, it could keep the eastern seaboard and southeast closer to normal. It wouldn't be as mild as it would otherwise be. 

If MJO, though, spends a good bit of time in 6 and 7, what's indicated above would more likely happen. Also, in Nina's, above normal Februarys are more likely in the east than in non-Nina's. 

I think our region gets two more chances for the frozen stuff during this coming February.  

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13 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Nail in the coffin?

wsi_feb-update.jpg

Just because it's colder than average in the west doesn't mean it can't also be colder than average in parts of the east. February 2013 was cold in much of the west but was also cold in a good part of the east. Two analogs for February 2021 had a "cold everywhere in the U.S." type of pattern with the core of the cold in the north central states. The southeast was the least cold but still only average. Two such years were 1971 and 1989.

A negative PNA can still mean cold in the east if the NAO/AO is also negative.  If the NAO/AO stay negative through February, it could keep the eastern seaboard and southeast closer to normal. It wouldn't be as mild as it would otherwise be. 

I think our region gets two more chances for the frozen stuff during February.  

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9 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

Have Triad tv mets even mentioned freezing rain as a possibility?  I’ve just seen them talk about rain mixed with a little snow.

I don't watch the mets on TV but the few I follow on Twitter have definitely mentioned it.  Tim Buckley, Van Denton to name a couple.

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37 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Maybe your farm won't...

Yeah, I'm headed up tomorrow to check the gennie.  Stuart could be on the southern end of the snow, or pinkies deep in ice/sleet.  Kind of have to prepare for all of it.

Not expecting much here in the Triad outside of some glazing.  Certainly looks cold enough at the onset for some accretions.

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12 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Winter storm watch hoisted for Mountains and adjacent foothills. 

Wow, they went all in too.  6" plus some ice!  Dont think that will resonate across the foothills.  For example, my farm is at 1,400' elevation in Patrick County but Meadows of Dan on the opposite side of the county is over 3,000'.  Literally 15 miles difference.  Tough to forecast this area with "catch-all" language.

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3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I think this is a minimal event outside the mountains and foothills.  Cold rain is better than ice/power outages.

For Raleigh area proper I would agree.  Not sure yet back here in the NW piedmont.   That's some pretty dry air hanging around here Sunday morning.  If precip comes in early enough I have seen it take several hours to go above freezing.

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18 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

My son lives in Purcellville Va. (8 to 12) might be a good weekend to go see my new granddaughter.

P'ville is always good for high end of snow in NOVA. Fondly remember digging out of all the big ones there over the past 12 years. Just moved down this way, guess I will live vicariously through the MA forum.

 

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