Brian D Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Well, here we go again Upper Midwesterners. The potential for another strong hit. Post your thoughts and model runs in the coming days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 No. Gimme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Had it cutting over DesMoines not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 It’s only been 5+ years since my last 6” snowfall, would hate to ruin the streak. Potential is there for a big hit for someone, unfortunately for now appears to be a rainer here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Another November track in late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 The front end signal is pretty decent. Just a question of whether that sets up for Chicago or Green Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 I see 12z gfs looks a lot like euro now with a way west cutter. Joy. The year going out with the 2020 trend....CRAP. Hoping we can trend back to at least a decent front end thump but I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Hopefully we can get some kind of front-end action. Either way I hope we can get a little thunder at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 The front-end snow is vanishing for southeast Iowa and points east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 I'll take the CMC and run with it. I'll bet my butt that they'll all cave south within fifty hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Not gonna get sucked back in yet, but the 00z GEM came way back south on the 30th-31st, bringing warning level snows into northern IL, including QCA and much of the Chicago metro (which right there probably means it's wrong ) except for the far south. We'll see if the UKMET and ECMWF shift at all tonight toward a more favorable evolution, like what the GEM depicted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 12 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Not gonna get sucked back in yet, but the 00z GEM came way back south on the 30th-31st, bringing warning level snows into northern IL, including QCA and much of the Chicago metro (which right there probably means it's wrong ) except for the far south. We'll see if the UKMET and ECMWF shift at all tonight toward a more favorable evolution, like what the GEM depicted. the gfs has seemed to have the poorest performance lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 the gfs has seemed to have the poorest performance lately GFS performed best with the current setup, way north with the primary and better east for secondary, but it's been spotty at best otherwise (by far the worst for the big dog in the east). I'd say overall the modeling has been poor, it seems to struggle in fast flow patterns. Hopefully with the big time -NAO signal coming up that can help slow things down and improve the modeling. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 25 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Not gonna get sucked back in yet, but the 00z GEM came way back south on the 30th-31st, bringing warning level snows into northern IL, including QCA and much of the Chicago metro (which right there probably means it's wrong ) except for the far south. We'll see if the UKMET and ECMWF shift at all tonight toward a more favorable evolution, like what the GEM depicted. Would take notice if UKMET shifted south. Don't think they will though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 10 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: GFS performed best with the current setup, way north with the primary and better east for secondary, but it's been spotty at best otherwise (by far the worst for the big dog in the east). I'd say overall the modeling has been poor, it seems to struggle in fast flow patterns. Hopefully with the big time -NAO signal coming up that can help slow things down and improve the modeling. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk it was too east with the snow band tonight, the last model to correct west. but yes, they all seem to struggle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 28 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Not gonna get sucked back in yet, but the 00z GEM came way back south on the 30th-31st, bringing warning level snows into northern IL, including QCA and much of the Chicago metro (which right there probably means it's wrong ) except for the far south. We'll see if the UKMET and ECMWF shift at all tonight toward a more favorable evolution, like what the GEM depicted. Fluke tease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Fluke teaseProbably...so far UKMET is a no Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Probably...so far UKMET is a no Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Heard the UK's snow shield was a tad S, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Heard the UK's snow shield was a tad S, no?It appears to have some better front end snow, but wouldn't think in reality the sfc low track on that run would be supportive of it. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Some suggestion on the guidance of an attempt at a secondary low if not full blown secondary development. Even if that scenario were to occur, could quite possibly leave a snowless zone in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Seeing significant changes in guidance the past 24 hours on how the next trough is handled. It now is looking increasingly likely a wave in the northern stream will dive SE out of Canada, interacting with the southern stream wave(s) coming into the Southwest. GEM and now the Ukie are showing sig snow much further south now, with the both very close to being an even more sig event than either have modeled even at this time. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 On 12/24/2020 at 11:14 AM, Brian D said: Well, here we go again Upper Midwesterners. The potential for another strong hit. Post your thoughts and model runs in the coming days. This would be a tornado outbreak track in April/May so watch a "winter" pattern decide to set up then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Euro with a bump south compared to 00z. As mentioned above, seems as though some changes may be taking place in the handling of this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Rainer No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 If only the Canadian model could be right for once eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 21 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: No Really don't see how northern IL/northwest IN avoids rain with this. It's a question of how much of the storm is rain... 10%, 50%, 90%, 100%? That has yet to be sorted out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 12Z Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Have you ever seen the rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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