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ORH_wxman

Dec 16-17 obs/nowcast thread

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16” after compaction.  I did not measure every six hours so I’m just gonna go with that officially.   Pretty dense stuff too.  Certainly not cement but not fluffy either.

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

16” after compaction.  I did not measure every six hours so I’m just gonna go with that officially.   Pretty dense stuff too.  Certainly not cement but not fluffy either.

I noticed the same in Methuen.

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3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

16” after compaction.  I did not measure every six hours so I’m just gonna go with that officially.   Pretty dense stuff too.  Certainly not cement but not fluffy either.

You’re welcome lol.

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I actually want to slap myself for thinking the band would be farther south 

The ULL swinging through NoPA was a red flag. It needed to swing through SoPA/MD. I put my goggles on inside 24hr and didn’t remove them...

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That WCB death band at about 2 am was insane. I was half asleep so I didn't really look but it actually might've been more like 1/8 sm vis with perfect dendrites. Had to have been 2-3''/hr stuff. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The ULL swinging through NoPA was a red flag. It needed to swing through SoPA/MD. I put my goggles on inside 24hr and didn’t remove them...

The track of H7 low always scared me but I felt that there was enough of a signal to swing the CCB through more of CT and pivot through but that didn't entirely happen. I actually should have stuck with my second update instead of doing 3rd update...I always do that too myself lol

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This is bananas even as the radar is petering out.

Work asked for an update on rates (they issued a SPS for heavy rates last hour based on my 3.9"/hr report). I knew it was snowing hard, but I picked up an additional 4.8" in the last hour. 8.7" since 1 pm.

Storm total 21.7". Dumbfounded honestly.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

This is bananas even as the radar is petering out.

Work asked for an update on rates (they issued a SPS for heavy rates last hour based on my 3.9"/hr report). I knew it was snowing hard, but I picked up an additional 4.8" in the last hour. 8.7" since 1 pm.

Storm total 21.7". Dumbfounded honestly.

Holy shit.  I thought it was done but you got 8.7” in two hours, ha!

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

The track of H7 low always scared me but I felt that there was enough of a signal to swing the CCB through more of CT and pivot through but that didn't entirely happen. I actually should have stuck with my second update instead of doing 3rd update...I always do that too myself lol

Obv for me this is just a hobby so nobody cares except my 8 family and friends I send out emails too lol, but same thing...too many tweaks sometimes with knee jerk reactions up close. I had 8-12” for sne with 12-16” max zones for like 4 days, shouldn’t have changed it. 

Still a good forecast. It was a cool storm if one didn’t go to bed at 8pm.

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Highly rated.   Then again I can shovel for you and have all of your neighbors give you dirty looks all winter...

My man

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Holy shit.  I thought it was done but you got 8.7” in two hours, ha!

It's pretty amazing. Since the first flakes tripped the ASOS at PWM at 4:20 I've averaged 1.8"/hr. 

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pretty good for mid Dec. Now the depression sets in...what’s next to track because my dopamine levels are low. 

I got around 7 which isn't bad considering I'm near the water.

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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The track of H7 low always scared me but I felt that there was enough of a signal to swing the CCB through more of CT and pivot through but that didn't entirely happen. I actually should have stuck with my second update instead of doing 3rd update...I always do that too myself lol

That is what screwed the weenies in NYC.  H7 was right on top of the city. 

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I am loving the powered chute on my Craftsman snow thrower.  I thought it was a frivilous feature when I was shopping but it is really nice to have.  I think brand matters less than getting the largest machine possible.  My old smaller one was trash and this largest one they had is great.

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Obv for me this is just a hobby so nobody cares except my 8 family and friends I send out emails too lol, but same thing...too many tweaks sometimes with knee jerk reactions up close. I had 8-12” for sne with 12-16” max zones for like 4 days, shouldn’t have changed it. 

Still a good forecast. It was a cool storm if one didn’t go to bed at 8pm.

That was a great call. All in all I think this storm was well forecast so many days out. This really lived up to it's potential...it was a sizable storm from northern New England down into parts of the mid-Atlantic. Sure there will surprises (always will be) but given the news attention this had been getting everything played out beautifully. Moving forward I want to incorporate more cross-sectional analysis like dendrite suggested. I just look at H7 (fronto, VV) and always use that to dictate banding and where it occurs but that's not always the best level (as we know from this event). 

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I ended up with 5.0 of snow before the changeover occurred around 2:30 am EST (Harwich, MA).  Temp was 32F.  Snowed moderately for a few hours!  It was awesome to see 5.0" of snow once again, surpassed any storm of the last three years!

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