TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 CMC is. Solid 8-12 region wide... slightly higher amounts SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Hopefully an over correction tonight. Euro should help clarify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GEFS validate the OP run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Again, glad this run happened several days out as opposed to 48 hours before flakes fall (or don't) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: GEFS are not much help. That is an UGLY GFS suite tonight. But we’ll see if it’s supported or not by other guidance. GGEM so far says no....84h NAM (if you want to count that) didn’t support it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Asking to get bombed for 6 days and 24 runs in a row. ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I would say wait until Sunday night's 00z runs, because that is when the entire area of energy will be sampled and the models have a more accurate depiction of the storm at hand! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Asking to get bombed for 6 days and 24 runs in a row. ok. There is the required GFS choke job if we’re going to get a big storm. It seems to puke on itself in almost every one. Usually a lot closer to the event than this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: There is the required GFS choke job if we’re going to get a big storm. It seems to puke on itself in almost every one. Usually a lot closer to the event than this though. Maybe it hit the bottle earlier this go round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That is an UGLY GFS suite tonight. But we’ll see if it’s supported or not by other guidance. GGEM so far says no....84h NAM (if you want to count that) didn’t support it either. And really from subtle changes 18z to 00z. If anything the GEFS mean confluence looks stronger on the 18z run, but the 00z run just has a slightly farther south shortwave. Similar strength run to run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There is the required GFS choke job if we’re going to get a big storm. It seems to puke on itself in almost every one. Usually a lot closer to the event than this though. Call me crazy but I prefer to not have maximized solutions at d4-d6 like we have been getting. Just keep the pieces in play and get it inside d4, preferably d3, before we start bombing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Because some need a helping hand tonight: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: And really from subtle changes 18z to 00z. If anything the GEFS mean confluence looks stronger on the 18z run, but the 00z run just has a slightly farther south shortwave. Similar strength run to run. Seemed like the mean position of the trough was getting kicked east a lot faster on the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Indeed It did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Because some need a helping hand tonight: Do 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Do 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 55 minutes ago, weathafella said: Actually, it isn’t. Bertha don't you come around here anymore 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just keep the Boxing Day disaster the hell away from HFD.....thank you 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 00z icon is crazy amped. Getting big banding into dendrite land. Ukie running late..it was pretty flat at 12z and was hoping to see if it trended north at all at 00z, but I’m not waiting up for it any longer. Euro can wait 4+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Like others have said...We were due for a whiff/miss. It’s pretty much inevitable in every evolution it seems, when modeling goes off the rails to some degree, and here it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSnowBOS Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 00z icon is crazy amped. Getting big banding into dendrite land. Ukie running late..it was pretty flat at 12z and was hoping to see if it trended north at all at 00z, but I’m not waiting up for it any longer. Euro can wait 4+ days out. Icon snow clown map anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 00z icon is crazy amped. Getting big banding into dendrite land. Ukie running late..it was pretty flat at 12z and was hoping to see if it trended north at all at 00z, but I’m not waiting up for it any longer. Euro can wait 4+ days out. Does the ICON have any known biases? To my very untrained eye, it just always seems to be erratic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, RDRY said: Does the ICON have any known biases? To my very untrained eye, it just always seems to be erratic. Yeah it’s bias is being a trash bag model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Uncle 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Several of the gfs individuals are clean whiffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Uncle I’ve seen better looks, won’t lie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’ve seen better looks, won’t lie This scoots east fast This storm is going to hit a brick wall. The question is where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now