Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

GFS caved

To an extent but it also hits the confluence brick wall a little earlier and takes this ENE after Delaware. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

GFS was farther N and W, It's still playing catch up. 

[David-LI]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

No. It’s a non event in sne 

Thankfully we are nyc metro sub 

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs did tick west but it is still cold

It’s also a fast mover, it looks to be all over and done by very early Thursday morning

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s also a fast mover, it looks to be all over and done by very early Thursday morning

I think the gfs comes north

[David-LI]

Just now, mikem81 said:

I am on WESTERN LI. DO I NEED TO WORRY ABOUT RAIN????? NAM LOOKS ALL SLeet

Rain is always a concern if you live on the coast. GFS had no mixing issues though, plenty cold. 

[crossbowftw3]

Still can't 100% count out GFS I think. Wouldn't be shocked if something like the GFS happened but brought north a tad more than it already is. Areas in and around NYC should still be very good for totals of at least 6-10". 

[Northof78]

Guessing GFS is roughly 12" to 18" area-wide?

[jm1220]

I’d really want to see other models come SE before believing the GFS much. I don’t see this having a hard time getting snow into New England. 

[jm1220]

That said if you shift the GFS north 50 miles or so that’s still great for most of us other than maybe Montauk. 

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

To an extent but it also hits the confluence brick wall a little earlier and takes this ENE after Delaware. 

In the end it wasn't much different further north.

That confluence can't be denied. The gfs actually takes it ESE eventually. 

[HVSnowLover]

Gfs trended a bit certainly didn’t cave but it’ll get there. I think the RGEN axis of heaviest snow is going to end up pretty accurate.

[weatherbear5]

GFS isn’t even really north. It just consolidates into a stronger low and tucks it into the coast. The N/S differences between the 0, 6, and 12Z are very small. 
 

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

In the end it wasn't much different further north.

That confluence can't be denied. The gfs actually takes it ESE eventually. 

It was further north and west. It will still correct further and precip shield will be farther north. FWIW it now gives me 5 instead of 1.  

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Gfs trended a bit certainly didn’t cave but it’ll get there. I think the RGEN axis of heaviest snow is going to end up pretty accurate.

Somewhere between Philly and NYC will get the jack if RGEM is closest to reality. That band will crush whoever ends up under it.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said:

GFS isn’t even really north. It just consolidates into a stronger low and tucks it into the coast. The N/S differences between the 0, 6, and 12Z are very small. 
 

That's my thinking right now and most models share this idea, it's just that they take the low a bit further north before it goes east.

I'd be more worried if I lived in SNE.

[MJO812]

[mikem81]

2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Somewhere between Philly and NYC will get the jack if RGEM is closest to reality. That band will crush whoever ends up under it.

Id be worried about sleet along and SE of 95 if the track came so close....

[David-LI]

Anyone got a decent clown map for the GFS? Tidbits seems to be bugged. 

[jm1220]

Just now, mikem81 said:

Id be worried about sleet along and SE of 95 if the track came so close....

Those 700 and 850 low tracks will really be key to seeing how far north the warm mid level air can make it. I have no idea where those track on the RGEM but if those go near or NW of you and the snow maps show 12"+, the snow maps are likely garbage. 

[friedmators]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

Anyone got a decent clown map for the GFS? Tidbits seems to be bugged. 

 

[White Gorilla]

19 minutes ago, friedmators said:

 

GFS took me from 1 inch to 5.5.  Trend is my friend? 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

GFS took me from 1 inch to 5.5.  Trend is my friend? 

Definitely came noticeably north at least with the precip

[crossbowftw3]

4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

GFS took me from 1 inch to 5.5.  Trend is my friend? 

1.2 to 2.7 here. Trend still needs a bit more to go to be my friend.

[friedmators]

A nice reference i thought for predicting snow locations.

Rules of Thumb

[jdj5211]

CMC running. Looks a tad SE so far. Was a monster run last night 

[David-LI]

Canadian looks good 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

CMC running. Looks a tad SE so far. Was a monster run last night 

 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Tony that’s 6z isn’t it?

12z

[mikem81]

Just now, MJO812 said:

 

Took close for comfort for Long Island....