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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

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Yeah Mag the nooners were looking like a few chances at scoring with the block doing what it should and forcing systems under us. Need NAO to stay west based or systems might cut to friggin Idaho. This propensity for systems to try and cut just rattles the nerves. 
If we can see more consensus build in the next few runs I’m going to get excited. As crazy as it is the euro is far enough south that we could have suppression depression for the Mon Tues system. As a result The next 2 might have a chance to gain latitude and get us in the goods. If that’s not enough we all remember how excited we were a week ago for this week and the snow shredder NAO tore em up. As the MA forum often complains ...many ways to fail. I’m not Debbyin just trying to keep it real in here. I want blizz’s maps to work as much as anyone here....and my snowmobiles...want it more. 

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6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah Mag the nooners were looking like a few chances at scoring with the block doing what it should and forcing systems under us. Need NAO to stay west based or systems might cut to friggin Idaho. 
If we can see more consensus build in the next few runs I’m going to get excited. As crazy as it is the euro is far enough south that we could have suppression depression for the Mon Tues system. As a result The next 2 might have a chance to gain latitude and get us in the goods. If that’s not enough we all remember how excited we were a week ago for this week and the snow shredder NAO tore em up. As the MA forum often complains ...many ways to fail. I’m not Debbyin just trying to keep it real in here. I want blizz’s maps to work as much as anyone here....and my snowmobiles...want it more. 

Next week is our best chance since the December blockbuster snow event.

We have multiple opportunities. I feel really good that we will score at least once. If all goes well, then we might get hit twice with snow!

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I am gaining confidence for next week because all of the models today showed us getting some snow in the same time period. It is not the case of one random run by one model.

Like @pasnownut said, a few more runs and I will be excited. Hopefully we get to the point where the main question is not if we get snow, but how much!

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Next week is our best chance since the December blockbuster snow event.

We have multiple opportunities. I feel really good that we will score at least once. If all goes well, then we might get hit twice with snow!

We’ve not pinned down a threat since mid Dec. and yeah I’m a bit snakebit and until todays nooners finally showing some continuity, the players have been on the field, but we’ve got to get some first downs, not fumbles if we’re going to score. Hoping tonight moves the chains forwards. 

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The 0z Euro was a heartbreaker tonight, skirting the southern tier with decent snow while having a major cutoff and a majority of the subforum area mostly dry (Mid-Atl storm). However Euro ensemble mean and control run looked much better for us and got most into some snows. Looked similar to the Canadian maybe a bit further north with extent. GFS and its ensembles  are now on their own currently with cutting as far north as it does making for a mix. Meanwhile it looks like the Euro ensemble is solidifying a nice mean with a majority of members showing decent snows at most of our local stations now. Track is key, because if this does go south and not pull off what the GFS is trying to do, we're probably going to have to contend with a sharp cutoff on the northern extent of the precip somewhere.  

Harrisburg:

ecmwf-ensemble-KMDT-indiv_snow_24-1100800.thumb.png.6546fd30e353f75374258cfb5bc866d5.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-snow_48hr-1727200.thumb.png.6ebdeac21de812c5f10095eb93dd9efe.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-snow_24hr_ge_3-1684000.thumb.png.c40b3a5eb7d10b30aed3e2176247ba70.png

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This shortwave passage has been pretty decent overnight here, just measured 1.6" and still working some bands of snow showers. 31ºF

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2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

The 0z Euro was a heartbreaker tonight, skirting the southern tier with decent snow while having a major cutoff and a majority of the subforum area mostly dry (Mid-Atl storm). However Euro ensemble mean and control run looked much better for us and got most into some snows. Looked similar to the Canadian maybe a bit further north with extent. GFS and its ensembles  are now on their own currently with cutting as far north as it does making for a mix. Meanwhile it looks like the Euro ensemble is solidifying a nice mean with a majority of members showing decent snows at most of our local stations now. Track is key, because if this does go south and not pull off what the GFS is trying to do, we're probably going to have to contend with a sharp cutoff on the northern extent of the precip somewhere.  

Harrisburg:

ecmwf-ensemble-KMDT-indiv_snow_24-1100800.thumb.png.6546fd30e353f75374258cfb5bc866d5.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-snow_48hr-1727200.thumb.png.6ebdeac21de812c5f10095eb93dd9efe.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-snow_24hr_ge_3-1684000.thumb.png.c40b3a5eb7d10b30aed3e2176247ba70.png

It’s good to see the EPS continue to be on board for the storm chance next week. There are are several ensemble members that target CTP.

I would sign up for the 0z Euro Control run.

 

24FA5381-7222-4CBB-ABCF-1D9F4EEAD050.png

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

This shortwave passage has been pretty decent overnight here, just measured 1.6" and still working some bands of snow showers. 31ºF

There was a dusting of snow overnight here in Marysville.

It looks like another snow shower might make it here within the hour.

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Well here we go again with the back and froth . The one thing I know from lots of experience is if you go back and forth for 6 days strait you will definitely end up covered in the white stuff. 

 

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I think if we all go back a forth together we will have  things completely covered .
 

 

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2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

This shortwave passage has been pretty decent overnight here, just measured 1.6" and still working some bands of snow showers. 31ºF

I'm betting we see less than 10 flakes here in Lanco.  Getting good at waiting.  

I'll tell ya, it has been niice for the northern locals, as theyve had snow OTG for a month now, and keep getting refreshers every coupld days.  Thats what I was hoping would happen down here.  All we've been able to do is retain snow piles :(.  lol  its all good. 

 

 

 

PCSC.jpg

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Nice snow shower here this morning! Even had a bit of accumulation in the grass - call it the 3rd trace in 4 days!

Also - other than the day of the snowstorm in mid December, have we had a single day of sub-freezing highs in the LSV? I know last year was mild, but it was VERY mild offset by a few periods of somewhat colder weather. We definitely had days where it stayed in the 20s. I can't recall a winter that has been so void of wintry temperatures. 

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Nice snow shower here this morning! Even had a bit of accumulation in the grass - call it the 3rd trace in 4 days!
Also - other than the day of the snowstorm in mid December, have we had a single day of sub-freezing highs in the LSV? I know last year was mild, but it was VERY mild offset by a few periods of somewhat colder weather. We definitely had days where it stayed in the 20s. I can't recall a winter that has been so void of wintry temperatures. 

1997


.

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Some good bursts this morning. It has been much better up here than in the lower 2/3 of the state as we have had snow in the air and temps in the low 30s most of the last week. Nothing big with another inch this AM that will be gone by afternoon but it is what it is. Poetic justice would be that the Southern crew cashes in over the next few weeks and I sit in the 20s smoking cirrus!

Photo from this AM.

IMG_1969.jpg

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5 hours ago, Greensnow said:

Some good bursts this morning. It has been much better up here than in the lower 2/3 of the state as we have had snow in the air and temps in the low 30s most of the last week. Nothing big with another inch this AM that will be gone by afternoon but it is what it is. Poetic justice would be that the Southern crew cashes in over the next few weeks and I sit in the 20s smoking cirrus!

Photo from this AM.

IMG_1969.jpg

Southwestern corner of the State is having a pretty damn good winter.  33" of snow already (more than Erie, which has to be incredibly rare) and likely more in the forecast, could surpass the seasonal average by the end of the month.  We've had light accumulations for 4 straight days now, and a surprise 3.2" of the weekend, that was after the 2nd snowiest December of all time.  So, the entire southern 2/3 of PA are not suffering by any means.

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11 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I would sign up for the 0z Canadian for early next week.

 

5A2B9003-C105-4393-A19A-5E83EE4F1F81.png

F918AA80-3662-4F47-BD1C-628AA081863A.png

and 12hrs later

gem_asnow_neus_26.png

 

Point I'm trying to drive home is that players are on the field, but not sure who is qb (should be NAO- but his passer rating is not so good), and who is punter (we have several of them vying for said position.

Thats quite the shift in 6 hours.  GFS just went to "lost mode".  Is a storm coming....I think so, but as much as we follow this stuff, I cant say w/ too much confidence.  Euro stays on point, yeah that'll help, but it too had us snowing this week only 7 days ago.

 

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24 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


Seems like every model is against it. Even GEFS have been much different.


.

Bingo.......doesn't inspire alot of hope/comfort as consensus still lags inside 7 days. 

Fortunately every model cycle seems to have one or 2 ways to snow, but goalposts are boucing all around and Canderson is too afraid to step on the field to kick da ball.   

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and to further understand my concern.  Full disclosure this is a known GFS bias, so not totally surprised, but wrt DEC event, we had days and days of consensus.  Yes, a touchdown is still a possibility, and I'm not sure its a hail mary that is necessary, but the team needs to get their sh!t together soon.  GFS looks like shredmaggedon or suppression city for next 10 days.  Not even worried about the cutter it shows beyond that range.  

gfs_asnow_neus_27.png

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