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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
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45 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Congrats! Thanks for starting the Winter thread.

What are your thoughts on the chances for the potential storm this weekend?

There's been a lot of model uncertainly with this potential storm as I mentioned on my post yesterday. It does appear that the models have consolidated more today on having a more impactful system for the Mid-Atlantic into potentially the NE. Appears the issue is going to be temps and possibly a bit of an inside low track. This brings back my other bigger post last week when this current storm was looking to cut off over a few days depressing the storm track and keeping cold in longer. What ended up happening is a more progressive outcome, as this storm will lift out more quickly and we moderate and build some heights toward the end of the week.

Now temps still look to be seasonal, but that may not be enough for the Sus Valley even with the type of solution the 18z Euro put out this evening. Even though we're into early December, it's still early in the winter season and we need the more anomalous cold air mass in place. While the 0z GFS looked a bit too high and inside,  I do think the 18z Euro type solution (also 0z Canadian) eventually would present more of a wintry threat for northern and potentially interior/higher elevation portions of central PA on models when the short range high resolution models get in range. And even there we could be talking a rain to snow type scenario as the storm winds up on the coast... which adds in the usual timing and having enough remaining QPF issues.  A colder outcome implies more press from the northern stream and thus likely a more progressive and/or southern tracking storm. This looks like a thread the needle type deal to get a widespread C-PA snow event into the Sus Valley.

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12z GFS says Saturday looks better w mslp and thermals, but verbatim, still a closer miss...:).  GFS suite 12z new vs 0z para starting to have more similarities in progression anyway.  If I lived in NEPA, I'd be moderately intrigued.  

That's just a 10 second glance, so troll me if needed.  

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12z GFS says Saturday looks better w mslp and thermals, but verbatim, still a closer miss...:).  GFS suite 12z new vs 0z para starting to have more similarities in progression anyway.  If I lived in NEPA, I'd be moderately intrigued.  
That's just a 10 second glance, so troll me if needed.  

Could be rain to wet snow if dynamics are good.

Definitely looking elevation dependent.


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and furthermore, 12/11-12 shows my point from yesterday about the see saw look.  Cutting to Illinois doesn't inspire a ton of hope about pattern locking in in the long range, but maybe that's just setting the table for beyond (just remember the good looks that we've struggled to see materialize - so proceed w/ much caution).  Plenty of time for corrections (if the pattern that the ens guidance seems to be trending towards as we approach mid December.    

 

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Wow, 12z Euro just roasted all of interior New England with that weekend storm. That shows the potential with a phase, although I think with the pattern alignment being presented on the models a phase solution might happen too late for us as it did there. GFS didn't really phase in northern stream energy like the Euro did and thus we have a decent coastal storm but nothing huge... but the GFS did get precip into southern PA. Still a lot of differences in features. One thing I do notice today are that it seems all solutions are a bit colder and the tracks of the developing low come out of the deep south into VA and to the coast, which is a serviceable track for us. Just don't like the alignment, with the colder scenario the northern branch just seems to squeeze this under us with eventual late development once the storm is past us. Barring some kind of major development on models (which still isn't out of the question)... I think what's on the table for us here in this setup is if we can get enough cold air in place and a wave of precip up enough into PA with this southern wave. That would present something of the advisory variety if all went right.

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After an entire winter season last year without a single event even worth posting about it's great to be back. Wonderful early season "Jebwalk" through the snow showers at Shingletown Gap yesterday. Thanks as always for the insight on the upcoming storm MAG. Crossing fingers that a chance at accumulation this weekend can materialize!

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2 hours ago, canderson said:

Guess what: it’s crazy windy! Repeated gusts above 35. 

Same here, I've had some surprising wind gusts. I'd bet there's some major blowing and drifting up in the Laurel's today where there were several warning total's reported and the Seven Springs Resort region of Somerset County getting 12-15" of snow yesterday. 

Also, I know you were wondering about the warm November. Here's climo from the CTP discussion.

Quote
.CLIMATE...
It was the third warmest November on record (since 1888) at
Harrisburg (MDT) with an average temperature of 49.9F (50.0F in
1975 and 51.3F in 1931).

Harrisburg recorded the 6th warmest fall season (Sept-Nov) with
an average temperature of 58.5F (+3.7F above normal).

 

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Wow, 12z Euro just roasted all of interior New England with that weekend storm. That shows the potential with a phase, although I think with the pattern alignment being presented on the models a phase solution might happen too late for us as it did there. GFS didn't really phase in northern stream energy like the Euro did and thus we have a decent coastal storm but nothing huge... but the GFS did get precip into southern PA. Still a lot of differences in features. One thing I do notice today are that it seems all solutions are a bit colder and the tracks of the developing low come out of the deep south into VA and to the coast, which is a serviceable track for us. Just don't like the alignment, with the colder scenario the northern branch just seems to squeeze this under us with eventual late development once the storm is past us. Barring some kind of major development on models (which still isn't out of the question)... I think what's on the table for us here in this setup is if we can get enough cold air in place and a wave of precip up enough into PA with this southern wave. That would present something of the advisory variety if all went right.

Yeah thats what I meant by closer but not there yet.  Thermals I 80 N were marginally better but verbatim it'd be a rather thin stripe of snow on NW precip shield and elevation driven at that.  Its only a couple moves away from eastern half of state seeing a decent event.....wet or white.  on the other hand, its also only a couple moves away from smokin cirrus if cold press shunts it OTS, or, we get a jump NW w/ SLP and were all soakin wet w/ MAYBE slush bombs if dynamics get there.  ULL did seem a little better wrt phase, so who knows....maybe momma N gonna show us some love from above in the craptastic 2020.

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3 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah thats what I meant by closer but not there yet.  Thermals I 80 N were marginally better but verbatim it'd be a rather thin stripe of snow on NW precip shield and elevation driven at that.  Its only a couple moves away from eastern half of state seeing a decent event.....wet or white.  on the other hand, its also only a couple moves away from smokin cirrus if cold press shunts it OTS, or, we get a jump NW w/ SLP and were all soakin wet w/ MAYBE slush bombs if dynamics get there.  ULL did seem a little better wrt phase, so who knows....maybe momma N gonna show us some love from above in the craptastic 2020.

The 18z NAM got a little closer to threading the needle for some CTP snow.
We need the perfect track and also need the low to strengthen at the right spot to get any snow out of this. Rates and Elevation would then help the cause as well. 

I would sign up for this solution right now. Let’s see what the 0z runs show tonight.

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16 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

lol.  I had a confused icon on your post....only to take it off as I totally forgot about todays game.

Dont blame me.....blame 2020....:P

I took a chance with that one - I was a huge fan of him at PSU. I know he rubs some the wrong way with his homerun swing after throwing a TD pass, but the guy is a winner. All you have to do is look what's happened since he left Happy Valley to appreciate the impact he had on the program. Very happy he got a chance to play the last 2 series today. 

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