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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Sort of...but areas around Binghamton had between 40-50" of snow, so we sort of shared the wealth with our neighbors up north. 

I consider Binghamton part of PA the same way I consider Hagerstown part of PA. They're too close to the border and too easily accessible to be in another state lol

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I was waiting for something like that. So, I present this...

300px-December_16-17_nor%27easter_snowfall_totals_map.png

Enjoy the point, sir.

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30 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I'd like to see models back down a bit on the primary track, as they've been creeping up toward entering the primary into western PA. Like I mentioned before, the blocking pattern forces the secondary development SE of the the primary off the Mid-Atlantic.. creating an alignment that could somewhat favor the Sus Valley between I-80 and the turnpike holding frozen longer than that same zone in the central counties. Either way, there would likely be more widespread mixing with the GFS primary low track. Plus it lags a bit in getting a secondary going. North central is starting to look like the place to be for an all snow event. I still favor primarily frozen p-types (snow/sleet) east of the Laurels though. We'll have to watch the Laurels and LSV below the turnpike for some ZR as well. If models edge back south a bit this weekend, preferably keeping the primary tracking just below the mason-dixon when transfer occurs.. this probably becomes a mostly snow event for most of the subforum. I'm also eager to see how the NAM and other short range guidance handle the thermals once it gets firmly in range later this weekend. 

Like what you just said Mag might be some mixing issues on the EURO today S PA. 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png

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8 minutes ago, paweather said:

Thanks for posting that I couldn't after seeing it. Storm 2 is not looking good but there is still time for change. 

There's a LOT of time left. That was my point last night - too early to say it's going to snow, too early to say it's not. 

I'm still not super confident about Monday. 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

There's a LOT of time left. That was my point last night - too early to say it's going to snow, too early to say it's not. 

I'm still not super confident about Monday. 

I feel better for Monday/Tuesday. There is at least consistency in the models with the exception of type of precip for us in the South but feel even for us as SuperStorm indicated a good thump of snow and then FR Drizzle. 

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Where is Canderson with a wind update? For the past hour or two my house has been shaking - it is windier here now than a lot of actually forecasted "wind events." 

West winds - the only direction I'm guarded from them mostly. 

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CTP seems rather bullish for the coal region...

Monday
A chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tuesday
Snow likely, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
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9 minutes ago, Voyager said:

CTP seems rather bullish for the coal region...

Monday
A chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tuesday
Snow likely, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Good Stuff! 

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55 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


I am thinking a good thump and then snizzle.


.

I like the look of the front end snow thump on the 18z NAM at the end of the run. Yes, long range NAM, but it should help over the next 24 to 48 hours to see the thermals for the snow & mix zones.
I think many in our region have a good chance for 3 to 6 inches of snow, more for those that stay mostly snow & less for the areas that mix.

 

934E5C3A-9E36-469B-8FCE-9FA74CDEFAE4.png

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