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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
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The 12z EPS was on board with all of the potential of the Euro Op run.

Here is the EPS 15 day total snow! It was not long ago that this map was consistently showing around 3 inches for the 15 days. The last couple of days we have been near 8 inches on these maps, and today most of CTP is over 10 inches of snow.
Awesome signal for the 15 day map!

B6F7812B-8CD2-40A6-9E04-D32C23377A48.png

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21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

GFS looks like it's gone from amped to suppressed in one run. Congrats northern VA on this run. 

I think realistically were still 2-3 days away from knowing what will happen on Monday. 

Yes, and I really like where we are sitting in the LSV. The bullseye keeps moving north & south, but we have stayed very much in the game the last couple of days. 
Hopefully we are digging out from the early week storm while tracking the late week opportunity!

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10 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

An actual legit clear and cold night here tonight with a bit of snow on the ground. 16ºF currently, probably coldest night of the winter so far. 

We hit 21 degrees this morning, not the coldest we had this winter but still cold.

 

Blizz keep the maps coming...we're going to hit one of these.

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z GFS had the best run yet for this event  for the southern half of CTP.

 

 

This is the trend we need in the days leading into the storm.    With this type of setup, there always seems to be a late shift north with the boundary, cold press, etc.   I’d love to be on the northern edge of the goods and let the models bring it north the last 48 hours

 

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Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

This is the trend we need in the days leading into the storm.    With this type of setup, there always seems to be a late shift north with the boundary, cold press, etc.   I’d love to be on the northern edge of the goods and let the models bring it north the last 48 hours

edit :  I could see it slipping away with the euro you just posted 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

This is the trend we need in the days leading into the storm.    With this type of setup, there always seems to be a late shift north with the boundary, cold press, etc.   I’d love to be on the northern edge of the goods and let the models bring it north the last 48 hours

 

I agree with you 100%. I know that every storm/setup is unique, but if I'm on or near the southern boundary of good snow, I'm essentially writing it off. I'm much more interested in being on the northern edge or even just out of it if there are several days left before the event. Some of my biggest snows were mid-Atlantic specials at range. '83 and '96 are classic examples.

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I agree with you 100%. I know that every storm/setup is unique, but if I'm on or near the southern boundary of good snow, I'm essentially writing it off. I'm much more interested in being on the northern edge or even just out of it if there are several days left before the event. Some of my biggest snows were mid-Atlantic specials at range. '83 and '96 are classic examples.

Totally agree. Much rather be on northern fringe vs southern fringe. Southern fringe is almost always a kiss of death.


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36 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


Totally agree. Much rather be on northern fringe vs southern fringe. Southern fringe is almost always a kiss of death.


.

+1 with both of you and trainer.  Only caveat is that we have -NAO and that throws a flag up for the "inevitable" tick north to me.  Would probably be easy to find periods of -NAO in the last 20yrs and see what percentage jogged north vs got shunted south.  

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24 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Remarkable that in late January that a storm exiting off Myrtle Beach produces rain up to the I95 corridor, at least as the GFS depicts. 

The primary low with that is associated with that comes up the Ohio River towards western PA and the pattern alignment forces the secondary southeast off the Carolina coast and then eastward away from the coast. You can see how the 500mb low arcs from CO to WI, then gets blocked and forced down through PA and then southeast off the Carolina coast where the coastal storm eventually deepens rapidly. Not a suppressed pattern in the sense that the US is overwhelmed with cold air. 

At any rate, gotta dispatch these threats one at a time though. This one slated for Monday/Tues is getting close to the short range and it wasn't a slouch on the GFS either with a 10+ bullseye in SC PA. 

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34 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

 

At any rate, gotta dispatch these threats one at a time though. This one slated for Monday/Tues is getting close to the short range and it wasn't a slouch on the GFS either with a 10+ bullseye in SC PA. 

Both GFS and CMC deliver the goods and are starting to narrow goalposts enough to suggest we are inside them.  I'd rather be on Euro side vs GFS/CMC sides of best snows, but a compromise (here in LSV) would do us just fine.  Hoping posts continue to narrow from here on in as we are inside 5 days.  Would feel better if it were 2-3 though.    

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9 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Both GFS and CMC deliver the goods and are starting to narrow goalposts enough to suggest we are inside them.  I'd rather be on Euro side vs GFS/CMC sides of best snows, but a compromise (here in LSV) would do us just fine.  Hoping posts continue to narrow from here on in as we are inside 5 days.  Would feel better if it were 2-3 though.    

Agreed, cannot wait to get in the NAM range. 

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