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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

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9 minutes ago, paweather said:

EURO looks south now. :blink:

Def a change from 0z lol. Comes out in weaker pieces, and way more confluence NE. That solution has 3 possible separate events between D7-D10. 

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6 hours ago, paweather said:

Where is NUT on the MA Forum trolling JI, at least that was entertaining. :D

hehe... it was fun, but what an easy target. 

Nut is quietly lurkin and was thinking the Op runs might belly under the nice NAO and was thinking it didnt make sense.  I'm glad todays runs brought some looks as to what I/we should expect with such blocking, but am not overly confident in much anymore.  One can only see so many good looks "vaporize" to rattle logic and what one thought one understood about weather/physics.....

and the cutter thing....it really is annoying....and concerning at the same time as I fear it may be part of the warming base state and what the models/analogs are struggling to recognize. ie. just because you once saw this....doesnt mean what it once did.  All that said, it still looks like a fun few weeks coming up.  Not looking much further for sanity's sake.

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The 12z EPS today was a great run with multiple winter storm chances over the next 2 weeks.

The first chance is the early next week storm. The EPS still has the mean low track to the Ohio Valley with a transfer to the Mid Atlantic coast.

Here is the 3 day EPS snow map, which is very nice for that window.

3CB57F0B-D8F6-4B17-BBC2-C32983C456EF.png

14A6D19F-748C-43B6-B467-4E1EB5F921BB.png

22DA13F2-651C-435A-BA7B-0B0B69CC8612.png

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The 0z Euro provided 2 Winter Storm chances for next week. 
For the early week storm, It wouldn’t take much of a shift to the south with the storm track to give a mostly snow event to our southern tier. As it stands with this run, it would be mostly snow for the northern half of CTP. The southern half of CTP would have a heavy mix changing to snow as the low transfers off of the coast.

The next threat is incoming next Thursday night into Friday at the end of the ten day run. It would have been nice to see the next 6 to 12 hours!

886601B8-D379-4B5F-91F4-AC57235AD35C.png

002AABCF-7527-485D-8A22-C3162D9E7374.png

EF1CF0CF-BA82-4A26-B4CF-240007DB358E.png

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While everyone is concentrating on the model runs, it looks like a few of you could pick up some LES. 

Some light snow here this morning.

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I'll take it in my zone forecast even though it is 30% LOL.

Wednesday

Scattered snow showers, mainly before 8am. The snow could be heavy at times. Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Northwest wind 8 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

  

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Boy it's quiet in here for what looked like a half decent 12z suite today. Models seem to be showing more muscle with the blocking and could be two different events as well. Starting to look like more of a tighter situation of getting somewhere in between too much block (suppressed) vs bringing the low up enough to force mixing before the blocking sends it east or even ESE. The most mixy of the bunch which was the GFS today still had a majority of the region having a sizable part of the storm as snow as the block forces the low under and changes the initial ice to snow as deeper cold gets drawn south. Then had a decent snow event regionwide with the following wave. 

 

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Just now, MAG5035 said:

Boy it's quiet in here for what looked like a half decent 12z suite today. Models seem to be showing more muscle with the blocking and could be two different events as well. Starting to look like more of a tighter situation of getting somewhere in between too much block (suppressed) vs bringing the low up enough to force mixing before the blocking sends it east or even ESE. The most mixy of the bunch which was the GFS today still had a majority of the region having a sizable part of the storm as snow as the block forces the low under and changes the initial ice to snow as deeper cold gets drawn south. Then had a decent snow event regionwide with the following wave. 

 

Yes, Thanks I feel lonely in here LOL but the EURO run was good for next week. Still worried about suppression. But next week will be nothing like the last couple of weeks hopefully.  

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12 minutes ago, paweather said:

I'll take it in my zone forecast even though it is 30% LOL.

Wednesday

Scattered snow showers, mainly before 8am. The snow could be heavy at times. Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Northwest wind 8 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

  

CTP mentioned in their morning discussion today they were concerned about some scattered snow showers/squalls making it into the Sus Valley with a potent shortwave passage later tonight into tomorrow morning. 

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

CTP mentioned in their morning discussion today they were concerned about some scattered snow showers/squalls making it into the Sus Valley with a potent shortwave passage later tonight into tomorrow morning. 

Maybe get a whitening on the ground!

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I'm just stopping in from the Pittsburgh thread, hopefully this works out for all.  Based on the runs I've seen I'm worried western PA could be flooded with warmer air to change to ice or even plain rain.

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JB hyped up!

Heads up. great pattern for weather nuts developing as west east moving storms next week focus fight of increasing cold to the north with pattern flip and warming southern US.    Weatherbell.com. premium place to be to view a pattern of storms and rumors of storms.  Will take your mind off politics ( gotta get the weather back to where it should be, front and center) .

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4 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Boy it's quiet in here for what looked like a half decent 12z suite today. Models seem to be showing more muscle with the blocking and could be two different events as well. Starting to look like more of a tighter situation of getting somewhere in between too much block (suppressed) vs bringing the low up enough to force mixing before the blocking sends it east or even ESE. The most mixy of the bunch which was the GFS today still had a majority of the region having a sizable part of the storm as snow as the block forces the low under and changes the initial ice to snow as deeper cold gets drawn south. Then had a decent snow event regionwide with the following wave. 

 

The 12z models today were fantastic today with multiple snow chances next week. There could be the opportunity for the rare “snow on snow” next week.

There was good consensus at 12z today among the Euro, GFS & Canadian. Here are their snow maps through next Friday morning.

 

EFD67938-E77C-40AA-A01E-FB759AB37E9D.png

BB2EE885-CB2D-47FB-90F5-4CD8FFBFC314.png

B7EC258B-1C86-4A68-B10E-C0A5D5396C06.png

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