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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

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I just calculated the world ends in 11 days at around  noon  if where lucky  so I hope it snows soon.

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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67860-3

This was published on July 13 but there was no shortage of eruptions storms and volcanic activity fallowing the first big spike in sun activity a few weeks ago. I am feeling confident again its being observed by the entities that should be observing it. I have not put any research into it  yet but I just read somewhere that the earth is rotating as fast as has ever been observed. I think this would have at least subtle effects on everything including bio if true.

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I’m good with tracking 3 to 6 inch snow chance events. The majority of our storms fall into this range. We had a KU type of event in December, which is rare. Hopefully we will get to track another major storm this season. If not, hopefully we get some light to moderate events to track soon in this pattern.

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I have been checking for days and it seems nothing much is going on and nothing much is predicted to happen.  I don't want to shovel more snow so I guess I should be happy.  It used to be that a quiet 10 day forecast would change and we would end up getting some precipitation until this summer.  Then we got week after week of mostly blue skies (instead of frequent gray skies) and no rain.  It was weird but wonderful.  Now we have gotten a lot of precipitation recently and now just plain nothing.  It really makes me wonder about the future.  Our weather patterns seem to be very disrupted.  We got 25 inches of snow here in Williamsport less than a month ago so I am not complaining.  But I am wondering.

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59 minutes ago, CoralRed said:

I have been checking for days and it seems nothing much is going on and nothing much is predicted to happen.  I don't want to shovel more snow so I guess I should be happy.  It used to be that a quiet 10 day forecast would change and we would end up getting some precipitation until this summer.  Then we got week after week of mostly blue skies (instead of frequent gray skies) and no rain.  It was weird but wonderful.  Now we have gotten a lot of precipitation recently and now just plain nothing.  It really makes me wonder about the future.  Our weather patterns seem to be very disrupted.  We got 25 inches of snow here in Williamsport less than a month ago so I am not complaining.  But I am wondering.

I thought the big totals were ne of Williamsport.  Awesome!! Here in N.Md I got around 10 inches total included was 3 inches of wraparound.  I use to work up there alot in the mid late 90s .Watched  LLWS often. Nice area .

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Harrisburg is still 4 inches of snow above average through today’s date for the season.

We already scored a major event in December. Many of us got at least a solid snow shower to coating of snow on Christmas Day! 
Last Sunday many had a coating of snow/sleet while some places further north & west in CTP had a few inches of snow.

My point is that this Winter has been pretty good to this point. We should get more cold into the pattern next weekend. The -NAO should persist through the end of the month. The pattern looks to get more active next week. We should have a few more winter storm chances this month.

 

 

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The 12z GFS has a good storm signal for early next week. There is a lot more potential with a slightly closer to the coast track if the storm deepens like thIs on the way up the coast.

 

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7 hours ago, Voyager said:

Madrid, Spain has Texas beat for this one.... Crazy snowfall in a place that rarely gets snow.

Crazy video. they haven't had a snowstorm this big in 50 years. i always forget places like that don't have systems in place to handle such a heavy and huge amount of snow so the city basically becomes paralyzed. Good luck getting to a hospital or anywhere in that lol

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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

After looking at long range guidance from the overnight runs - I don't see much to be encouraged about. This is a rotten time to go into an extended period of dry weather, but the southern stream looks to be predominately closed for business going forward. 

can only hope to get clipped w/ NS being predominant player, and hopefully we'll be surprised by one of 2.  Like I said the other week, at least areas w/ snow wont lose it.  Would be nice to get some before pattern breaks down.  NOTHING is harder to bear than going through a cold dry period, only to have snow to rain event, as pattern relaxes and warms up.  I hate that.

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

can only hope to get clipped w/ NS being predominant player, and hopefully we'll be surprised by one of 2.  Like I said the other week, at least areas w/ snow wont lose it.  Would be nice to get some before pattern breaks down.  NOTHING is harder to bear than going through a cold dry period, only to have snow to rain event, as pattern relaxes and warms up.  I hate that.

Yep, we need a high ratio fluff bomb straight from Manitoba. I'm far more partial to Maulers from Manitoba than clippers from Alberta. :) 

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16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yep, we need a high ratio fluff bomb straight from Manitoba. I'm far more partial to Maulers from Manitoba than clippers from Alberta. :) 

the fast flow on most guidance seems to really be the problem, we can get anything to lock in and work in conjunction w/ each other (like normal long wave stable patterns that snow lovers dream of).  That said, its likely a timing thing and something may sneak up in short/med term guidance.  While Im bummed, it still feels like winter, so I'm ok w/ it.  Was in Phillipsburg this past weekend and they had a rather solid/dense snowpack that is going NOWHERE.  Lots of walking through the woods and quite a few times had snow up to my knee.  Just wish we had some down here, but it's all good.

 

My son was up north and said he saw more snowmobile activity than he's ever seen.  I'm happy for the businesses that typically struggle, and hope this helps a bit, as this year, I'm sure they are far below in cash reserves due to the mess of the last year.  I don't envy them.  

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12 hours ago, pasnownut said:

can only hope to get clipped w/ NS being predominant player, and hopefully we'll be surprised by one of 2.  Like I said the other week, at least areas w/ snow wont lose it.  Would be nice to get some before pattern breaks down.  NOTHING is harder to bear than going through a cold dry period, only to have snow to rain event, as pattern relaxes and warms up.  I hate that.

The -NAO continues to look impressive for most of the rest of the month. The EPO is heading negative which will help with delivering the cold air. The -PNA should bring more storm chances across that should be forced to our south because of the blocking.

I just want some moisture laden storms in prime climo from mid January onward. I’ll take our chances with more cold air in the pattern thanks to the -EPO and the -NAO blocking keeping it in place.
This upcoming pattern could finally produce some solid winter storm chances the last 2 weeks of the month.

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I don't see too much in the upcoming shift in the overall pattern that argues we don't start seeing the results of the ongoing strat-warm event and continued -NAO/AO blocking. I've said a few times my eye has been on the back half of Jan, so this is materializing on time IMO. The EPO realm has been about the only sticking point, with persistent low heights in the Gulf of Alaska cutting off the source region for cold. That's set to reverse at the end of the week, with models/ensembles first building a ridge on the west coast eventually evolving to a full blown EPO ridge. Very strong and remarkably persistent ridging anchors over Greenland and that forms the bridge over the top when that -EPO ridge really cranks. So in sort, the table looks set for the arctic to invade the US in the next 1-2 weeks. Longer range seems to retro the EPO ridge further off the west coast, putting the western states in the trough and cold as well (-PNA), which with the strong -NAO/AO to fend off any significant SE ridging could help not completely squash our storm track with some actual arctic cold injected into the pattern. We're going to get the colder pattern, so the big thing will be what kind of storms we can get out of it. I think we'll have our chances. 

One thing to watch is a frontal wave on the arrival of the start of this colder period this coming weekend. Models are starting to show a coastal low popping (and winding up getting up toward New England) and they all have some precip in at least the eastern half of PA with the wave.  

 

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

I don't see too much in the upcoming shift in the overall pattern that argues we don't start seeing the results of the ongoing strat-warm event and continued -NAO/AO blocking. I've said a few times my eye has been on the back half of Jan, so this is materializing on time IMO. The EPO realm has been about the only sticking point, with persistent low heights in the Gulf of Alaska cutting off the source region for cold. That's set to reverse at the end of the week, with models/ensembles first building a ridge on the west coast eventually evolving to a full blown EPO ridge. Very strong and remarkably persistent ridging anchors over Greenland and that forms the bridge over the top when that -EPO ridge really cranks. So in sort, the table looks set for the arctic to invade the US in the next 1-2 weeks. Longer range seems to retro the EPO ridge further off the west coast, putting the western states in the trough and cold as well (-PNA), which with the strong -NAO/AO to fend off any significant SE ridging could help not completely squash our storm track with some actual arctic cold injected into the pattern. We're going to get the colder pattern, so the big thing will be what kind of storms we can get out of it. I think we'll have our chances. 

One thing to watch is a frontal wave on the arrival of the start of this colder period this coming weekend. Models are starting to show a coastal low popping (and winding up getting up toward New England) and they all have some precip in at least the eastern half of PA with the wave.  

 

Yeah, you've been sniffin out the upcoming period and it is great to see a ridge bridge straight from the hinterlands of the north.  Been a while since we've seen that on the maps and it was nice to see yesterday.  -pna isnt scary w/ a stout -nao as progged so bowling balls across the conus is fine w/ me.  A little help w/ WAR is also fine as it feeds the machine to the north, but its a scary ask as it's cooked us oh so many times and seems to rule the weather roost here in the east.  Gonna need that a bit as the STJ is pretty far south IMO.  

It's just really refreshing to not be in a shut out winter, and yeah, seeing chances starting to pop up is pretty cool.  

I also saw the coastal pop for this weekend, and said something in the MA forum about it yesterday.  Looks a tad late for most, but maybe a little in the E/NE regions as it gets cranking.  Pocono ski resorts will approve.  

Yeah Blizz....you better clean out your cache....cause you may be filling it up w/ snow maps in the coming weeks.  IMO its a frequent small/med kinda period, but maybe we can score a notable even as well.  Any snow is welcome to me....so its all good.

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