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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

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Not a good run of the 12z models for down here. We may need to wait until February now. 

We would join 1972/73 & 2005/06 in only having a T in snow for month of January in the last 132 years. In fact, 10 winters, have had a January with less than 1” of snow. 2006/07 only had 0.60”.


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The 12z EPS today had the best snow signal run since before the December major event.

The 6 inch snow line on the 12z EPS made it to the Harrisburg area today for the first time in a long time.
The 2 main snow chance windows are late next week & then the early to mid part of the following week.

 

327738AB-FDB9-4D45-9D47-86B500CE16C8.png

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It's going to rain tonight in the LSV - thus ending a remarkable stretch of weather that has been relatively the same each day for nearly 2 weeks. Of course, the majority of the precip falls during darkness, so by tomorrow we resume our stretch of what we've had since the beginning of the year.

We just can't get a wintry threat inside 7-10 days. Hopefully a piece of energy times right soon for us. 

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It's going to rain tonight in the LSV - thus ending a remarkable stretch of weather that has been relatively the same each day for nearly 2 weeks. Of course, the majority of the precip falls during darkness, so by tomorrow we resume our stretch of what we've had since the beginning of the year.

We just can't get a wintry threat inside 7-10 days. Hopefully a piece of energy times right soon for us. 

Thank goodness finally something other than sun and clouds tonight. LOL. I agree let's hope we get better model runs today and this weekend for the next couple of weeks. 

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yep, that's exactly what I was saying - we'll have 1 precipitation event in the month of January heading into the final week - and it's going to be rain. 

I should add GFS is suppressing everything right now on this entire run out to 318.

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4 minutes ago, paweather said:

I should add GFS is suppressing everything right now on this entire run out to 318.

So now we wont get cut, but NAO is a shredder.  Upslope and lake snow folk approve, but its just a meat grinder verbatim.  Just need some southern energy to get involved and we'd be seeing lots of little pieces of overrunning IMO.

 

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36 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

So now we wont get cut, but NAO is a shredder.  Upslope and lake snow folk approve, but its just a meat grinder verbatim.  Just need some southern energy to get involved and we'd be seeing lots of little pieces of overrunning IMO.

 

Yep. I hope so and we get better trending in the models over the weekend.

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2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

EPS with a strong signal for white gold for the last week of the month. Let's hope it's delayed (somewhat) but not denied. (in the least)

I'm optimistic that winter will be here in force before the end of the month. 

Yes, delayed but hopefully not denied!

Very strong signal indeed for the last week of the month on the EPS. The snow map at 12z pushed the 6 inch snow line down near I-95.

This is the best snow map by far since before the December major event.

 

90D5020D-0571-4E8F-8420-08E646024584.png

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25 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm appreciating the rain - it has been dry for 2 weeks. Need some moisture in the ground. 

That’s true - it’s been incredibly dry (again.)

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3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm appreciating the rain - it has been dry for 2 weeks. Need some moisture in the ground. 

Don't think we have truly recovered from the drought last year.

Here we are half way through January and Yuck.

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

That’s true - it’s been incredibly dry (again.)

 

37 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Don't think we have truly recovered from the drought last year.

Here we are half way through January and Yuck.

It's been kind of a sneaky dry spell - we're so focused on what might be coming at the end of the month that we've been caught off guard how dry it's been.

Anyway, just about .25" in the gauge. Nice, steady light rain has fallen all evening. 

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21 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Don't think we have truly recovered from the drought last year.

Here we are half way through January and Yuck.

It's been dry so far this month, or essentially the last two weeks. But we were coming off a very active period with the big mid-December winter storm, the significant Christmas rainstorm/flood, and the New Years and Jan 3rd systems that delivered various types of precip (and another decent snow up your way). That's a pretty busy 15 day period. Drought monitor only has a small D0 area in a portion of the Mid Sus Valley, likely dealing more with the short term dry conditions of the last couple weeks and dead vegetation drying out. We had seen solid improvements in the drought conditions in the late fall going into last month and the aforementioned active period pretty much eliminated it completely with no part of PA having actual drought conditions. North-central had been dead center for the worst of the drought conditions this fall and that very deep snowpack from the snowstorm was a big part in helping eliminate it. 

777244452_ScreenShot2021-01-15at10_08_43PM.thumb.png.7b8aa1e83ad9b46092c4b4f70f138992.png

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14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The EPS & CMC ensembles are still loudly signaling for snow opportunities during the last week of January.

The 6 inch snow line again gets to the LSV on both!

 

9860646F-AFD9-4984-BF42-32635D7AE91F.png

C78C501C-3D8B-4FB5-95A9-26BDB7C955AC.png

Thanks Blizz! Keep us positive. It will be a month and a half since we saw accumulating snow. I’ll try to remain hopeful. The Januarys seem to be the most boring months around here anymore. 

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The models (EPS, GEFS, CMC) are hitting pretty hard on the fact that the next 8/9 days will be for the most part uninteresting in the snow department in the east. Basically we have a shredding machine setting up to squash and rip apart any energy that moves into the east. But take heart, after this period things actual start looking more upbeat on the models.

Below we have the 5 day mean on the GEFS day 3-8 (All models agree on this general setup). What we have setting up is a PV and 50/50 couplet overtop central and eastern Canada. Around this feature we have energy rotating around the PV towards the 50/50 helping to reinforce it. Note the fairly impressive low pressure anomalies for a 5 day mean through the Lakes and through the NE. This is pretty formidable suppression which would take a lot to combat. What is attempting to push back against it is the cutoff low/lower latitude troughing in the SW and the responding forcings it is creating in the lower latitudes for ridging in the southern states. This really is not a good setup for a general snowstorm in the east and as we have generally seen on the models, everything moving eastward in the mid-latitudes fizzles out. Doesn't mean some won't see snow. Those who typically enjoy lake enhanced snow as well as those up in New England can do quite well as the PV energy rotates around and then amplifies as it hits the coast off of the NE and Canada coast.

Now I wouldn't call this a shutout pattern through this period for a general snowstorm outside of the areas mentioned above. But it isn't pretty. The models have been having a rough time in the Southwest with the energy so maybe we see something actually there that has more oomph. Or we could possibly see a short lapse in the suppression which a system could take advantage of. But even in these cases I think we would be hard pressed to get anything meaningful above 40N in the East, west of the Apps.

 

GEFSday3-8.gif.b88051f5d7cf620c4a14de32ec56b8e3.gif

 

 

Now to give you a better idea of what systems are encountering as they move eastward look at the closeup map below. I think the anomalies tell the story here. Not only that but look at the angle of these anomalies. The isobars tell the story as we are seeing a significant downhill look into the east for a 5 day mean. This is an impressive, suppressive look.

Downhill.gif.2aee0f4fcc7bc1a74d90a638cb3b861f.gif

 

But I did say take heart (or at least as much as you can for 10+ day projections). As many are aware and have been talking about, the models have started hitting on a potential storm roughly around the 26th. If the models are somewhat correct with some of the major features and how they handle them then this is actually a legit window IMO and not just another fantasy threat we see at 10+ days all to often. 

Below we have shortly before this period of interest. What is occurring is the PV and 50/50 couplet is now in the process of separating. The PV lobe is rotating up towards the pole and the 50/50 is migrating eastward (Good timing of the 50/50 low moving eastward and relaxing its influences for a possible storm). Between these two features we now how the higher heights over the NAO domain nosing southward between them. This is effectively cutting off the NS energy rotating around these features and along with it the suppression through the Lakes and into the NE. With this relax in suppression the ridging in the south is taking advantage of it. Ridging that is created by the general troughing in the west. That general troughing/energy in the west the models have been having a hard time handling recently.  So what actually verifies could have somewhat significant influences on the evolution of any system in the East. But for now we really have to leave this and any possible influences as a question mark. 

Now I mentioned I felt that this may be a legit threat and not just another phantasy one. Let me explain why. Generally, many of our 10 day threats revolve around smaller scale features (more MESO scale in nature) and some intricate timing between them to force the pattern for a storm signal. Expecting the globals to get all that right at such ranges is asking a hell of a lot. So typically we see a storm show up for a few runs or even a day or two and then it disappears as the models then start picking up on different timing of these smaller scale features. But this is not what we are seeing here. What is forcing the pattern in the East and hence the storm signal, are the major players (larger scale features). It is all revolving around the NAO/PV/50/50 and how they evolve and the globals have a better handle on these features at longer ranges. What is comforting as well, is seeing all three models in unison with this evolution. And despite what some may think, the models have done a pretty good job in the longer ranges with how they have handled the Greenland/Eastern Canada/N Atlantic domain where these features are located.  So short of the SSW/split impacting this negatively as it works its way down through the atmosphere I believe chances are good we see a semblance of this look verify despite being 9/10 days out. ***Word of caution, there is always a possibility we could see something cut to the west to a certain point before moving/transferring east. What form of troughing and strength we see in the West could play a big part in that.***

 

GEFSday8-9.gif.a30ff41c7242a126e8215601e437a8b4.gif

 

 

Thought I would also make a quick mention on what we would see any post day 9/10 storm. Even there we are now seeing some positives through the day 11-16 period. Though you may #$%#@ when you look at the isobars and see the same steep downhill look in the east that we saw in the above example they really are not the same. The difference here is the lower pressure anomalies extending from the 50/50 have now shifted south from targeting NE and are now targeting the mid-Atlantic. What this is implying is that we are more then likely seeing systems moving through the mid-Latitudes and amplifying as they move off the coast (the prior example we were seeing NS energy running the border and amplifying as it hit the coast). In this look below, generally the NW sector of the low pressure anomalies (circled) is where you want to be. 

GFSday11-16.gif.9f0fd0e703d68dacb646a9c7f4e51906.gif

 

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