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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

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21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

GFS looks like it's gone from amped to suppressed in one run. Congrats northern VA on this run. 

I think realistically were still 2-3 days away from knowing what will happen on Monday. 

Yes, and I really like where we are sitting in the LSV. The bullseye keeps moving north & south, but we have stayed very much in the game the last couple of days. 
Hopefully we are digging out from the early week storm while tracking the late week opportunity!

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An actual legit clear and cold night here tonight with a bit of snow on the ground. 16ºF currently, probably coldest night of the winter so far. 

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10 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

An actual legit clear and cold night here tonight with a bit of snow on the ground. 16ºF currently, probably coldest night of the winter so far. 

We hit 21 degrees this morning, not the coldest we had this winter but still cold.

 

Blizz keep the maps coming...we're going to hit one of these.

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z GFS had the best run yet for this event  for the southern half of CTP.

 

 

This is the trend we need in the days leading into the storm.    With this type of setup, there always seems to be a late shift north with the boundary, cold press, etc.   I’d love to be on the northern edge of the goods and let the models bring it north the last 48 hours

 

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Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

This is the trend we need in the days leading into the storm.    With this type of setup, there always seems to be a late shift north with the boundary, cold press, etc.   I’d love to be on the northern edge of the goods and let the models bring it north the last 48 hours

edit :  I could see it slipping away with the euro you just posted 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

This is the trend we need in the days leading into the storm.    With this type of setup, there always seems to be a late shift north with the boundary, cold press, etc.   I’d love to be on the northern edge of the goods and let the models bring it north the last 48 hours

 

I agree with you 100%. I know that every storm/setup is unique, but if I'm on or near the southern boundary of good snow, I'm essentially writing it off. I'm much more interested in being on the northern edge or even just out of it if there are several days left before the event. Some of my biggest snows were mid-Atlantic specials at range. '83 and '96 are classic examples.

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9 hours ago, paweather said:

Another 7 days to 10 days. Sorry over it. 

I know it's a ways out, I'm just saying if it would work out that way, I'd be okay with it.

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I agree with you 100%. I know that every storm/setup is unique, but if I'm on or near the southern boundary of good snow, I'm essentially writing it off. I'm much more interested in being on the northern edge or even just out of it if there are several days left before the event. Some of my biggest snows were mid-Atlantic specials at range. '83 and '96 are classic examples.

Totally agree. Much rather be on northern fringe vs southern fringe. Southern fringe is almost always a kiss of death.


.

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36 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


Totally agree. Much rather be on northern fringe vs southern fringe. Southern fringe is almost always a kiss of death.


.

+1 with both of you and trainer.  Only caveat is that we have -NAO and that throws a flag up for the "inevitable" tick north to me.  Would probably be easy to find periods of -NAO in the last 20yrs and see what percentage jogged north vs got shunted south.  

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2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 0z Euro & EPS remained steady for this potential storm for CTP.

 

1F8F978A-AF77-4053-BAC1-8195D1BDCB2F.png

74D46CC1-A51A-4BE8-84F5-C81F34798E80.png

Really not liking the Euro trends for my area.  Keeps putting less and less snow out, to the point that southern Allegheny County has 0 snow.

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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Remarkable that in late January that a storm exiting off Myrtle Beach produces rain up to the I95 corridor, at least as the GFS depicts. 

I was actually thinking the same thing. That low off the SC coast has such a moisture fetch to the north. 

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24 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Remarkable that in late January that a storm exiting off Myrtle Beach produces rain up to the I95 corridor, at least as the GFS depicts. 

The primary low with that is associated with that comes up the Ohio River towards western PA and the pattern alignment forces the secondary southeast off the Carolina coast and then eastward away from the coast. You can see how the 500mb low arcs from CO to WI, then gets blocked and forced down through PA and then southeast off the Carolina coast where the coastal storm eventually deepens rapidly. Not a suppressed pattern in the sense that the US is overwhelmed with cold air. 

At any rate, gotta dispatch these threats one at a time though. This one slated for Monday/Tues is getting close to the short range and it wasn't a slouch on the GFS either with a 10+ bullseye in SC PA. 

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34 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

 

At any rate, gotta dispatch these threats one at a time though. This one slated for Monday/Tues is getting close to the short range and it wasn't a slouch on the GFS either with a 10+ bullseye in SC PA. 

Both GFS and CMC deliver the goods and are starting to narrow goalposts enough to suggest we are inside them.  I'd rather be on Euro side vs GFS/CMC sides of best snows, but a compromise (here in LSV) would do us just fine.  Hoping posts continue to narrow from here on in as we are inside 5 days.  Would feel better if it were 2-3 though.    

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9 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Both GFS and CMC deliver the goods and are starting to narrow goalposts enough to suggest we are inside them.  I'd rather be on Euro side vs GFS/CMC sides of best snows, but a compromise (here in LSV) would do us just fine.  Hoping posts continue to narrow from here on in as we are inside 5 days.  Would feel better if it were 2-3 though.    

Agreed, cannot wait to get in the NAM range. 

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27 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Both GFS and CMC deliver the goods and are starting to narrow goalposts enough to suggest we are inside them.  I'd rather be on Euro side vs GFS/CMC sides of best snows, but a compromise (here in LSV) would do us just fine.  Hoping posts continue to narrow from here on in as we are inside 5 days.  Would feel better if it were 2-3 though.    

The GFS has been literally over the east coast with the upcoming storm. It inspires zero confidence...I mean zero. People poop on the NAM but the GFS right now is laughable. 

The CMC seems to be doing a little better - maybe not Euro like, but model goalposts seem to be narrowing. The Euro hasn't been it's hallowed self lately and the CMC seems to be getting better. We'll see what happens soon enough. 

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

The GFS has been literally over the east coast with the upcoming storm. It inspires zero confidence...I mean zero. People poop on the NAM but the GFS right now is laughable. 

The CMC seems to be doing a little better - maybe not Euro like, but model goalposts seem to be narrowing. The Euro hasn't been it's hallowed self lately and the CMC seems to be getting better. We'll see what happens soon enough. 

At least it was a good run today. LOL, totally agree though. Can't wait for the EURO returns today. 

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Good to see CTP is starting to discuss Monday's alleged event with infographs. I guess it's probably time to log back in for a few days, huh?

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1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:

Good to see CTP is starting to discuss Monday's alleged event with infographs. I guess it's probably time to log back in for a few days, huh?

Welcome Back! Euro looks good. Good 12z runs all together. Time to get ready for a couple of weeks of winter weather instead of me tracking clouds and sun. :-) 

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