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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

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37 minutes ago, paweather said:

:D Instead of Mostly Cloudy, Partly Sunny or Mostly Sunny. Oh I forgot Heavy Wind Warnings. 

That'll be a shock to the system. I honestly can't remember a more boring run of weather in peak winter - last year was AWFUL but we had at least rain to track lol. 

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5 hours ago, paweather said:

Maybe a 31st storm. Looks warm a bit for now. 

No..........

As of right now, it appears that will be the flight day for me to go to orientation for the new job. If it snows, the wife won't take me to the airport.

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3 hours ago, canderson said:

Wait we're really going to have a possible storm Monday? 

Everyone except you. 

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

I love watching it snow while tracking an event that is on the way a few days later. It doesn’t happen often, but we might have that chance next week!

At least for the first storm, having a second one coming up also helps minimize the post-storm depression...that is as long as there IS a second storm.

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11 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

At least for the first storm, having a second one coming up also helps minimize the post-storm depression...that is as long as there IS a second storm.

Very true!

Let’s see what the 0z runs show tonight.

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1 minute ago, canderson said:

You guys are super confident for a storm 3.5 days away .... lol

I'm not - this storm is all over the place. I'm prepared for zero snow, a pile of snow, or anything in between the next 10-14 days. As PSU Hoffman said earlier this evening "the Monday system has become complicated, and we don't do complicated well."

I think those are prudent words to heed. 

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8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm not - this storm is all over the place. I'm prepared for zero snow, a pile of snow, or anything in between the next 10-14 days. As PSU Hoffman said earlier this evening "the Monday system has become complicated, and we don't do complicated well."

I think those are prudent words to heed. 

That’s DC we typically survive in these complicated setups. 

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45 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm not - this storm is all over the place. I'm prepared for zero snow, a pile of snow, or anything in between the next 10-14 days. As PSU Hoffman said earlier this evening "the Monday system has become complicated, and we don't do complicated well."

I think those are prudent words to heed. 

We also don’t live in MD or DC...

Yes, there are a few ways that this storm can go as the models have bounced around. However, over the past 24 hours, all models put the LSV in a solid 3 to 5 inches of snow for the early week event. A consensus is forming that says we are in a good spot for this event.

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26 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Other than the December storm, we've had little snow for the past couple of years. Sorry, I don't agree with you on this. At this juncture, there are still ways for us to miss this. 

Just last year there was no snow.

Besides last year, we had a great decade of snow. Above normal snow most years.

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45 minutes ago, canderson said:

You guys are super confident for a storm 3.5 days away .... lol

I’m just waiting for the Advisory to be posted for Monday and for you to post “ I’ll bet MDT won’t get 1 inch of snow”! 
I really am looking forward to that post!

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Other than the December storm, we've had little snow for the past couple of years. Sorry, I don't agree with you on this. At this juncture, there are still ways for us to miss this. 

I agree. Things have changed and the Susquehanna valley is not necessarily what it used to be (during snowstorms). Things are shifting and it’s almost like the climate we have here is taking on the characteristics of somewhere south of here (Maryland, Virginia).
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8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

We also don’t live in MD or DC...

True, but where he lives receives more snow annually than I do.

I wasn't arguing or trying to start anything. I'm saying that we can't say for certain that it's going to snow. To do so could end up making one look foolish. 

There are absolutely ways for Monday to fail. That goes for Lake George NY and Smith Mountain Lake in VA and every point in between. 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

True, but where he lives receives more snow annually than I do.

I wasn't arguing or trying to start anything. I'm saying that we can't say for certain that it's going to snow. To do so could end up making one look foolish. 

Yes, but it’s not like one random 18z run has shown this event...

There is a building consensus.

Nothing is guaranteed until we are shoveling!

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4 minutes ago, anotherman said:


I agree. Things have changed and the Susquehanna valley is not necessarily what it used to be (during snowstorms). Things are shifting and it’s almost like the climate we have here is taking on the characteristics of somewhere south of here (Maryland, Virginia).

Here we go....

MDT was above normal snow the majority of years over the last decade.
We had one bad year last year. 

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here we go....

MDT was above normal snow the majority of years over the last decade.
We had one bad year last year. 

I think you're misinterpreting what is being said. 

Climate is NOT the same as it was years ago. You often quote PSU Hoffman, he's been saying that over and over again. That doesn't mean it doesn't snow, or we don't have above normal years. We've gotten above normal years because we've had a lot of very large snowstorms in the past 20 years. Winters have been lacking multiple snow events, sustained cold, and to some extent, frigid weather. He said winter is changing. He's right...

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Here we go....
MDT was above normal snow the majority of years over the last decade.
We had one bad year last year. 

Yes, we’ve had some big snowstorms. But that doesn’t mean the climate isn’t changing. Snow totals or mild winters don’t really signal climate shifts. Years and years of data do. I’m not saying it can’t snow anymore, but to completely deny that our area’s climate is changing is an opinion not based in reality.
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