Monday, November 30, 2020 Heavy Rain, Strong Winds, and Severe Convection

[Damage In Tolland]

32 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Mix these down.

 

Oh we will

[weatherwiz]

Window to watch is between 3-7 PM I think from NJ into southeast NY perhaps into southwestern CT...probably the greatest chance for severe weather (widespread wind damage and a few tornadoes) is in this corridor. 

[Snowcrazed71]

2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Latest map.

This makes more sense

[crossbowftw3]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Window to watch is between 3-7 PM I think from NJ into southeast NY perhaps into southwestern CT...probably the greatest chance for severe weather (widespread wind damage and a few tornadoes) is in this corridor. 

Gonna be watching because any storms that swing by those areas will likely get their start near my location 

[Cyclone-68]

27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Window to watch is between 3-7 PM I think from NJ into southeast NY perhaps into southwestern CT...probably the greatest chance for severe weather (widespread wind damage and a few tornadoes) is in this corridor. 

Any lightning chances with these Wiz?

[VTweather]

Remember it was just a full moon!

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

Any lightning chances with these Wiz?

yeah I think there will be some lightning in the more robust convection. There is a bit of lightning with that activity just offshore. Actually a decent amount of hail CAPE so if any updrafts can grow tall enough to punch into this layer we'll see lightning. Perhaps similar to the Cape COD TOR warning last week where there was a rapid increase in lightning just prior to strengthening rotation.

 

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

yeah I think there will be some lightning in the more robust convection. There is a bit of lightning with that activity just offshore. Actually a decent amount of hail CAPE so if any updrafts can grow tall enough to punch into this layer we'll see lightning. Perhaps similar to the Cape COD TOR warning last week where there was a rapid increase in lightning just prior to strengthening rotation.

 

What are you thinking about the cluster of activity in SEPA? 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, crossbowftw3 said:

What are you thinking about the cluster of activity in SEPA? 

that is the activity to probably watch moving through the afternoon. 

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

that is the activity to probably watch moving through the afternoon. 

When she’ll we expect the Tornadoes..asking for a friend?

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh we will

won't

[crossbowftw3]

8 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

won't

It's not been mixing well here N&W of NYC. Wasn't expected to. Inversion holding in very well. Going to need to watch convection later.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Very little rain thus far.... just showers 

[Baroclinic Zone]

45 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

yeah I think there will be some lightning in the more robust convection. There is a bit of lightning with that activity just offshore. Actually a decent amount of hail CAPE so if any updrafts can grow tall enough to punch into this layer we'll see lightning. Perhaps similar to the Cape COD TOR warning last week where there was a rapid increase in lightning just prior to strengthening rotation.

 

You never posted this?

[CoastalWx]

Had a few quick downpours earlier. Getting windy now. 55.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah starting to roar last half hour. Should be wild late afternoon and night 

[weatherwiz]

37 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

When she’ll we expect the Tornadoes..asking for a friend?

2-8

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

You never posted this?

I thought we would see 30% wind contour in SE PA/NJ into SE NY

[Whineminster]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah starting to roar last half hour. Should be wild late afternoon and night 

I brought all my lawn furniture inside and put extra tie downs on my firewood tarpaulins

[weatherwiz]

Core of LLJ will be confined to this area. LLJ will continue to increase through the afternoon. Bigger gusts happen as 925 cranks 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Whineminster said:

I brought all my lawn furniture inside and put extra tie downs on my firewood tarpaulins

Good move. Anyone east of 91 will rip later on . Your area is probably the northern extent 

[PhineasC]

Light rain at 36 degrees. Feels really chilly today. Fun stuff. 

[weatherwiz]

starting to see some weak mesos in PA and with that stuff off the coast...that stuff will graze far SE CT (perhaps), RI, and SE MA later

[weatherwiz]

That stuff coming up in SE PA might be aided by the H7 dry slot and is right on the nose of steeper lapse rates. Even on the nose of a secondary H5 jet max rounding the base of the trough 

[Typhoon Tip]

Fairly impressive warm boundary suggestion by local obs... 

Willimantic CT bounced to 58 over the last hour ... breezy SSE at 22 mph according to Metrowest but probably the trees lean more than that ( you know? how obs never seem to really match it when electrical spatter falls from powerline junctions and timbre cracks echo from the woods heh )  ... 

Meanwhile, ORH at 1,000 K is still parked at 42 with very little NNE wind. Those locations are really nearby in wind coordinates so the frontal slope must be pretty steep -... an homage to that WCB attempting to hydro-mine through that denser air's elevated cliff-face lol.

Kevin reporting gusts now audible ... too - I think it aligns roughly Torrington CT to NW of PVD to interior SE Mass ... 

I can't wait to see this thing penetrate through ...I wonder if makes it rt Poop up here though...  Sometimes they do and all at once I turbine and a stepping outside reveals surreal heat out of nowhere - 

[PowderBeard]

Down near the CT coast. Power flashing, wind cranking, solid storm.

[weatherwiz]

TORNADO WATCH UP SOUTHWEST OF HERE!!!!!!!!

Coming here next!!!!!!!!! wooooohooooooooo

[crossbowftw3]

Tornado watch across NJ: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0515.html

 

Expecting this to continue to pull northeast as this is the corridor where convective development should continue.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Down near the CT coast. Power flashing, wind cranking, solid storm.

Just the tip of the iceberg. Really rips in CT between about 4:00-11:00 tonight 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fairly impressive warm boundary suggestion by local obs... 

Willimantic CT bounced to 58 over the last hour ... breezy SSE at 22 mph according to Metrowest but probably the trees lean more than that ( you know? how obs never seem to really match it when electrical spatter falls from powerline junctions and timbre cracks echo from the woods heh )  ... 

Meanwhile, ORH at 1,000 K is still parked at 42 with very little NNE wind. Those locations are really nearby in wind coordinates so the frontal slope must be pretty steep -... an homage to that WCB attempting to hydro-mine through that denser air's elevated cliff-face lol.

Kevin reporting gusts now audible ... too - I think it aligns roughly Torrington CT to NW of PVD to interior SE Mass ... 

I can't wait to see this thing penetrate through ...I wonder if makes it rt Poop up here though...  Sometimes they do and all at once I turbine and a stepping outside reveals surreal heat out of nowhere - 

It jumped from 47 to 56.8 here as the SE winds roar in pulses