ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: I don't know what to make of it. Looks like it's about to cut over my head... It would be good in N ME....in another frame it prob collapses the isotherms eastward. The atmosphere is basically imploding like that submersible vehicle in the movie The Abyss. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I don't know what to make of it. Looks like it's about to cut over my head...Might be making a stop in Rutland if this keeps up, lol You'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It would be good in N ME....in another frame it prob collapses the isotherms eastward. The atmosphere is basically imploding like that submersible vehicle in the movie The Abyss. But like @CoastalWx said, definitely not going to make any plans off of it. We'll wait until Thursday night or so. Plan is to stop in PWM Friday night, then head up to St. Agatha Sat AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: But like @CoastalWx said, definitely not going to make any plans off of it. We'll wait until Thursday night or so. Plan is to stop in PWM Friday night, then head up to St. Agatha Sat AM. If you were to have some sort of wide consensus, you're probably in a good spot unless this just nukes into western New England or goes OTS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: But like @CoastalWx said, definitely not going to make any plans off of it. We'll wait until Thursday night or so. Plan is to stop in PWM Friday night, then head up to St. Agatha Sat AM. Oh yeah for sure...models have been an utter disaster on this storm. I was just saying wha would prob happen on the NAM solution if we could extrapolate (prob need to weenie tag ourselves for extrpolating the 84h NAM). Being able to wait until Fri or Sat to make a decision will be ideal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Were the NAM to verify, it could end up being the biggest snowfall I have experienced. I do not expect this to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It would be good in N ME....in another frame it prob collapses the isotherms eastward. The atmosphere is basically imploding like that submersible vehicle in the movie The Abyss. Learning to breathe liquid would be a good skill to have with all of this rain I’m getting. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Resembles the 6z Euro. Which has been correcting east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 LOL Icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 That would be a VT spine annihilator on the NAM soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, klw said: Were the NAM to verify, it could end up being the biggest snowfall I have experienced. I do not expect this to happen. In Vt ? ! what are you ... 3 years old - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 I trust the NAM at 84HR more than the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That would be a VT spine annihilator on the NAM soundings. J. Spin sent me a text message and said he is secretly really sad about not getting enough snow and cold yet. Guy needs this. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: J. Spin sent me a text message and said he is secretly really sad about not getting enough snow and cold yet. Guy needs this. LOL The Pony-Os in Subarus can only take so much. The happy, level headed posts are just a façade of internal anger and angst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 12z Reggie fwiw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 We have the Cheesecake Factory menu of models and solutions. Something for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: 12z Reggie fwiw. Glad to see it east....its basically an ensemble member IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: We have the Cheesecake Factory menu of models and solutions. Something for everyone Reggie seems to get it going a bit later, which may be why it doesn't tuck as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Glad to see it east....its basically an ensemble member IMO. Since its moved out to 84hrs, I would treat it like the Nam.............lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Like always, It will come down to timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 I think we may be seeing the initial stages of consensus gathering that probably takes this thing between the Sagamore Bridge and ACK ...up toward the outer Harbor... sumpin' like ghat - I bet it does slow once it's abeam of oh...PSM ... right around that latitude ... maybe not a stall but tends to do so for 6 or so hour. If there does result some additional feedbacks from wholescale dynamics that the models are not fully resolving - like Will intimated - it may go ahead and do so ... If/when, the CCB head probably pastes interior ... how much how little? But I like Will's assessment there ..that the dynamic squeezing out of the latent heat in the column due to intense lift probably brings parachutes ahead of guidance ...maybe compressing the flip line pretty damn tight too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: We have the Cheesecake Factory menu of models and solutions. Something for everyone Good analogy because it appears the whole thing is paralyzed by indecision due to all of the choices, just like happens when you eat there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: I think we may be seeing the initial stages of consensus gathering that probably takes this thing between the Sagamore Bridge and ACK ...up toward the outer Harbor... sumpin' like ghat - I bet it does slow once it's abeam of oh...PSM ... right around that latitude ... maybe not a stall but tends to do so for 6 or so hour. If there does result some additional feedbacks from wholescale dynamics that the models are not fully resolving - like Will intimated - it may go ahead and do so ... If/when, the CCB head probably pastes interior ... how much how little? But I like Will's assessment there ..that the dynamic squeezing out of the latent heat in the column due to intense lift probably brings parachutes ahead of guidance ...maybe compressing the flip line pretty damn tight too - I love ghetto Tip, yo...word 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: In Vt ? ! what are you ... 3 years old - LOL I know it is odd but in 20ish seasons, VT I have never gotten a storm give me over 20 inches. In this house 4 years, we have topped out at 19 inches. Granted that was within 4 days of another 18 inch storm. In Peacham for 7 seasons but we never topped 18 inches and we were prone to occasional shadowing from the Whites. Sure a couple of times I had measurable snow for 15+ straight days but most of the time it was snow globe events that only added up due to their frequency. Biggest storms I have been in topped out about 22 or 23 inches in CNJ in 83 and 96. I didn't keep records from when I lived in C VT from 92 to 02 but my memory does not have me topping 20 inches. In 3/93 for instance, we got 17" . With the NAM, it has me at 13'" at 84 hrs but cranking and the downstream numbers would indicate that we would get much more in the 12 hours after. It is moot but, yeah, I don't think I have ever topped 23 inches. Most winters, however, a SREF plume will give me 40+ at some point- if only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I love ghetto Tip, yo...word Straight outta Ayer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 GFS and Nam are night and day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: GFS and Nam are night and day Gfs is south and east of 6z but alot warmer than nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Gfs is south and east of 6z but alot warmer than nam My guess is that its mostly southern stream again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is south and east of 6z but alot warmer than nam It's due to dynamics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 12z GFS pretty much a whiff, Weak and east, Shuts out western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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