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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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3 minutes ago, GCWarrior said:

The 20th is starting to get me interested for out here.  Euro OP looks nice for Thursday out here but it's 6 days out and very different than the GFS.  Ensembles, I'm still learning how to read them but I'll assume we ride them until we get inside 4-5 days? 

Yea, once inside of 4 days I focus on OP.

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Will ...Ray ... I'm not sure that Atlantic is as 'backward instructive' with blocking anyway - 

The NAO in the GEFS - for how little that is worth ... - is really more neutralizing.   

The AO contribution - sort of unrelated to the initial point -  is interestingly vastly negative ... yet, we only see small blocking nodes. 

I am seeing very deep SPV holes in the rampart /ring around the pole, and I almost wonder if the AO is really being calculated in the derivatives as negative more so by virtue of those SPV depths ...  The thing is... that notion/idea may be supported in concept by the fact that the flow is so fast in a -AO, which is kind of not really typical... Typically in a blocking.. retrograde becomes more common which is synonymous with slowing fields down...  

I wonder if we're being dealt I kind of oddity in/how the negative polar fields or getting to those lower index numbers.  But as said ..that's off topic... 

I do think that the Atlantic offers some openness to interpretation and that it's not as 'blocking' as we think -   What are the EPS numbers now ?? I'm wondering if there may be cross ensemble support. 

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I hope this doesn't ruin the main show.

that was said earlier in this thread too - that often in these rapid succession/Pac relay fast patterns, the lead waves end up becoming dominant as sampling improves coming off the Pacific.

Well ??   - 

So, right now..Monday's system is at last over the west continental areas ...  

But here's the thing - the flow is not "slowing down" just because Monday may Currier and Ive us...  I don't see/imagine that as a delimiter as by the time the "main show" as you say is getting engineered... Monday's thing is tipping cows in an Irish pasture - ..again, I don't think the Atlantic is instructively blocking things and back logging .. just from what I'm seeing -

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