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November 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If it’s a flat +PNA ridge with a +EPO and +NAO, then it will pump the WAR or SE Ridge. This pattern has become more common in December since 2011. 

2E677A68-BFC8-4A9C-B716-091B78A8C69F.png.324908f0d18414aa3d217cb8383ae8c4.png

 

What an awful map for Winter

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, essentially shuts cold air down from getting south of the border and floods the continent with Pacific air. 

If we get a flow from Canada, their above normal is below here, it could potentially work for us as we work into mid December. 
 

Above all else we need a good pacific to have a chance 

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63* in NYC (2pm)is even 5 degrees beyond what the Wack-A-Do GFS had slated for today.      If it makes you feel better, I have just 60* as of 2:30pm.   [Made it to 61* by 4pm].

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That 360hr EPS snapshot looks a lot like the December 2011 and 1999 composite. Both were La Ninas with a more Niño-like +PNA December 500 mb pattern. But the +EPO and +NAO resulted in the warmer pattern for us than we usually get with a La Niña in December. This would match recent experience with mixed ENSO influences. The last few winters had El Niño ENSO SSTs but a La Niña background state. Now we could see a moderate to strong La Niña with an El Niño-like pattern in December. But the strong PAC Jet south of the Aleutians is more La Niña-like.


0F9F2E58-1CA3-4A8F-ABA4-83DCC3BAFA14.png.80e3d3a8ac5f6343455b6da2c9f3aa75.png

 

The darkest of the blues are over the Aleutians and ridge is in the west. I don’t think that’s a ideal snap shot imo. 
 

But I agree, this is more of a niño look then Niña for December 

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26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We can probably thank the very warm SSTs over the IO for the more Niño-like pattern. The IOD never made the strong drop that we typically see with a La Niña of this strength. So the MJO is going into the circle after moving through the IO P2 and P3 phases. Notice how much those LR forecasts look like a P3 at the beginning of December.

9EE7286A-357E-4C5D-A3B4-B5B0F3E6383A.gif.10dd84f5bc3357f898e5ad42337230e5.gif

 

6A2C2F3F-D634-4CC4-8EFA-D04794AD0AA9.png.acd5d780b6fee2c51d19914e707ccb51.png

Agree with the warm IO. It's problematic. Exasperating the situation is the QBO this year it looks like. Being westerly,  coupled with a la nina, it's just not an ideal situation. All of these things combined looks to keep forcing "trapped" in the IO for the most part. It's why the euro weeklies have been showing the awful pattern moving forward. (Yes, the weeklies have been abysmal at times. The problem is, there's research to support them in this case.)

Combined effect of the QBO and ENSO on the MJO

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/16742834.2019.1588064

The QBOW phase, however, will suppress the MJO intensity over the Maritime Continent through enhancing the diurnal cycle; plus, there is no reinforcement of the MJO over the western Pacific because of the cold central Pacific of La Niña. Thus, the MJO rarely reaches the western Pacific during the La Niña/QBOW phase (Figure 3(d)).

AgM9iL5.jpg

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In a day filled with sunshine, the temperature soared into the 60s across much of the region today. Most of the remaining days this month could see readings near or above normal with some short-lived cool shots possible. One such cool shot is likely early next week. December could see above to perhaps much above normal temperatures redevelop during the first week of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.44°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter.

The SOI was +16.86.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.144.

On November 19 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.579 (RMM). The November 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.551.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through at least November 25. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex, which is favored on the long-range guidance, could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 10/11 (91%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is very likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region.

The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.2°.

The implied probability for a November mean temperature of 50.0° in Central Park is now near 80%. Since 1869, there have been 19 cases where November had a mean temperature of 50.0° or above. 14/19 (74%) went on to have a warmer than normal December, including 9/19 (47%) with a December mean temperature of 40.0° or above (2.5° or more above normal). The winter mean temperature for those 14 cases was 37.5° (2.2° above normal). The winter mean temperature for the subset of December cases with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above was 38.9° (3.6° above normal) and four of those cases wound up having an average winter temperature of 40.0° or above.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 51degs.[45/56].         Making it 46degs., or +3.0.

Month to date is 53.2[+3.8].          Should be 51.1[+3.6] by the 29th.

Last two days of November are now switched to AN, after a recount.  lol!

EURO Weeklies greet Winter with 11 straight days in the 60's.

EURO Control outlook for December is a warning to 12/2015----Look Out!----I am gunning for you.

55*(54%RH) here at 6am.     54* at 7am.      60* by 11am.       62* by Noon.        63* at 1pm.        60* by 4pm.       It clouded up after 1pm and T went no further.      54* by 9pm.

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NYC on track for a top 10 warmest November. Models have generally above normal temperatures for the remainder of the month. Today looks like the 2nd day in a row to reach 60°.

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/21/2020  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 SAT  21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25| THU 26| FRI 27| SAT 28 CLIMO
 X/N  60| 42  53| 48  55| 36  48| 40  55| 48  58| 43  54| 44  54 36 49


 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2020 53.2 10
2 2015 52.8 0
3 2001 52.7 0
4 1979 52.5 0
5 1948 52.4 0
6 1975 52.3 0
7 2011 51.9 0
- 2006 51.9 0
- 1994 51.9 0
- 1931 51.9 0
8 1902 51.4 0
9 2009 51.1 0
10 1999 50.8 0

 

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33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC on track for a top 10 warmest November. Models have generally above normal temperatures for the remainder of the month. Today looks like the 2nd day in a row to reach 60°.

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/21/2020  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 SAT  21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25| THU 26| FRI 27| SAT 28 CLIMO
 X/N  60| 42  53| 48  55| 36  48| 40  55| 48  58| 43  54| 44  54 36 49


 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2020 53.2 10
2 2015 52.8 0
3 2001 52.7 0
4 1979 52.5 0
5 1948 52.4 0
6 1975 52.3 0
7 2011 51.9 0
- 2006 51.9 0
- 1994 51.9 0
- 1931 51.9 0
8 1902 51.4 0
9 2009 51.1 0
10 1999 50.8 0

 

Looks like a rather intense period of La Niña strengthening coming up. Easterlies are going to be ripping, regions 3.4 and 4 still very cold and dropping. This is going to limit how far east any MJO wave can make it, the cold waters and very strong easterlies are going to shear it apart

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Morning thoughts...

Today will be another mostly sunny and mild day. High temperatures in the region will likely reach the lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 61°

Newark: 63°

Philadelphia: 64°

Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler and there could showers.

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30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are going to need a strong enough El Niño in coming years to change up this entrenched La Niña background state. Very persistent Great Lakes and coastal hugger storm tracks in recent years. Notice how both the Euro and GFS  have another strong cutter near the end of November.

35CFCA17-EC84-482C-80FF-AE877D32E630.thumb.png.0edd292fe99b685fd4c66a21c7ae1879.png

325A780C-E6A0-41B2-AEC4-81AFBD511633.thumb.png.ad21e528a0966ae380c2520e569b2d38.png

 

At least there's a trough in the east and ridge in the west lol..GFS long range looks stormy in the east,probably rainstorms but at least it's not 60 and sunny in early December

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59 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

At least there's a trough in the east and ridge in the west lol..GFS long range looks stormy in the east,probably rainstorms but at least it's not 60 and sunny in early December

Yeah, I don’t think we had a ridge spike like that in the west for years.

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1 hour ago, KEITH L.I said:

At least there's a trough in the east and ridge in the west lol..GFS long range looks stormy in the east,probably rainstorms but at least it's not 60 and sunny in early December

Remarkably consistent storm track since 2018 with 3 of the wettest years on record for higher elevations to our SW.

Time Series Summary for HIGHLANDS, NC - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2020 125.89 42
2 2018 125.46 0
3 1979 115.92 37
4 2019 111.78 0

 

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16 minutes ago, Rjay said:

My forecasted high 2 days ago for today was 59.   Yesterday the forecast for today was 62.   It's 65 currently.  

More sun then expected

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Courtesy of WeatherBell.   

Very Ugly Look for a 46 Day interval.     Records are gonna fall if this holds up.    Hey, lets process this through a malfunctioning Star Trek Transporter and maybe we could get the inverse----if you remember that episode. 

 

C1609718400-HkavWw2OsMA.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

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