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November 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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The CFS does not have even a single week anywhere around us with BN 500mb Heights showing---from now till it ends in four months.       We are gonna see an 80-Degree Day somewhere during this stretch is my bet.        Heat Begets Heat---Begets Heat.  

Meanwhile the WeatherBell Pioneer model has a BN, or at least Normal winter predicted.       It was completely wrong last year.        

 

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

The CFS does not have even a single week anywhere around us with BN 500mb Heights showing---from now till it ends in four months.       We are gonna see an 80-Degree Day somewhere during this stretch is my bet.        Heat Begets Heat---Begets Heat.  

Meanwhile the WeatherBell Pioneer model has a BN, or at least Normal winter predicted.       It was completely wrong last year.        

 

Pioneer model is way to cold most of the time.    Even JB now admits that

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, pretty impressive PAC Jet extension should maintain this -PNA SE Ridge pattern until further notice.

8690EDBE-B867-4212-AAFC-F14CEA3F48A7.thumb.png.e11abfd471be46819f193fb1392ed7a8.png

 

If we go into December with a continuation of this pattern, it would be a really bad sign. La Niña’s that have mild December’s with less snow than average, historically bode very, very poorly for the rest of winter 

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12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If we go into December with a continuation of this pattern, it would be a really bad sign. La Niña’s that have mild December’s with less snow than average, historically bode very, very poorly for the rest of winter 

Chances are the pattern is going to flip for 4-5 weeks sooner or later.  I can't see see us having wall to wall warm from 11/1-3/15...the reality is nobody wants to see a flip before early to mid December since its hard to get snow before then anyway

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22 hours ago, bluewave said:

2 record highs in a row for JFK.

 

 

3 record highs in a row for JFK. Looks like the first 3 consecutive days there since December 2015.

12/12 64 in 2015 59 in 1983 57 in 2008+
12/13 70 in 2015 63 in 1983 60 in 1984
12/14 61 in 2015 60 in 2001 59 in 1991
12/15 64 in 2015 61 in 2001 59 in 1975
 
12/23 63 in 2015 59 in 2006 59 in 1981
12/24 69 in 2015 58 in 1990 57 in 2014
12/25 64 in 2015 58 in 1982 57 in 2014+

 

 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Chances are the pattern is going to flip for 4-5 weeks sooner or later.  I can't see see us having wall to wall warm from 11/1-3/15...the reality is nobody wants to see a flip before early to mid December since its hard to get snow before then anyway

I'd agree.   However those 4-5 weeks could be our only real winter weather-Nina's tend to be warm in the heart of winter here

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77 after high of 79. Sunny but hazy. 

Foilage the last several days has been some of the best I ever seen within NYC.

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

75° high here, 3rd straight record high...possible tomorrow and Wednesday also. 43 years of record....44° low btw.

73/44  split here...a far cry from the last three Novembers...

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8 minutes ago, uncle W said:

73/44  split here...a far cry from the last three Novembers...

Yeah record cold outbreaks last two November's followed by crummy winters...hopefully things work in reverse this year.

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78/43 here today. 80/42 yesterday.

Extreme diurnal ranges, yesterday might be my largest that wasn’t cold/warm front related.

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5 hours ago, dWave said:

Air quality is bad. Air quality alert...and not just the more common "unhealthy for sensitive groups" level, but Unhealthy for everyone. 

Otherwise..sunny 76, calm wind

what causes it?  is it the awful number of people driving around in dirty oil powered vehicles?  Mandatory car pooling needs to be in effect, four people per car or not allowed to drive, period end of discussion.

 

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6 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Even here on Long Island some big differences between daytime high and nighttime low. Yesterday 78-42 and today 77-41. Temperature drops fast, already down to 64.

yeah thats the only bad part- I need to turn the heat on at night

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If we go into December with a continuation of this pattern, it would be a really bad sign. La Niña’s that have mild December’s with less snow than average, historically bode very, very poorly for the rest of winter 

to be fair even if we dont experience a turn around until the last week of December a la 2010, it'll be okay.

 

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13 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Even here on Long Island some big differences between daytime high and nighttime low. Yesterday 78-42 and today 77-41. Temperature drops fast, already down to 64.

I wonder if Long Island has ever experienced a high of 80 or above and a low of 32 or below.

 

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

to be fair even if we dont experience a turn around until the last week of December a la 2010, it'll be okay.

 

Nothing at this time point and time even remotely resembles 2010, this year is in a different universe 

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Just now, snowman19 said:

Nothing at this time point and time even remotely resembles 2010

Yeah you know I dont expect it either, that was a one in 50 year pattern, just pointing out that we have had nice winters with most of December being a shut out until the final week.

 

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19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why do people come up with these crazy models?  Just spend the funds on one model to make it as good as possible.

i imagine (a.k.a. no clue what i'm talking about) that it's difficult or impossible for one all-encompassing model to be built due to constraints of money and computing power, and instead models are built with certain compromises, make certain assumptions, which may lead to specific biases.  and then meteorologists are tasked with using their expertise and experience to sort through all of the noise and determine what models are coming up with the best solutions that make the most sense.  in essence, the final model is the forecaster, taking an ensemble and reducing it to a forecast.

or not, idk.

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32 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

i imagine (a.k.a. no clue what i'm talking about) that it's difficult or impossible for one all-encompassing model to be built due to constraints of money and computing power, and instead models are built with certain compromises, make certain assumptions, which may lead to specific biases.  and then meteorologists are tasked with using their expertise and experience to sort through all of the noise and determine what models are coming up with the best solutions that make the most sense.  in essence, the final model is the forecaster, taking an ensemble and reducing it to a forecast.

or not, idk.

That sounds pretty fair and reasonable.  I guess I'm complaining because there are so many of them.  If there were only 3-4 then there wouldn't be so much confusion and information overload.

Anything over half a dozen seems to be too much to me to be of much use and the laws of diminishing returns step in.

 

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7 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Just amazing weather for these outdoor activities. I'm not into fishing, but I do a lot of deer hunting. This weather has been incredible for the bow hunting season!

It was amazing out in the ocean today. We caught our limit and it felt like summer. If we are not going to have winter this year I will take this every day.

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6 hours ago, rclab said:

Fate will bless you with a successful trip, Allsnow. You jogged a memory. The last time I fished for and caught a striped bass was aver 50 years ago. I was with a work buddy who, as opposed to me, was an expert fisherman. It was a rather mild October night and he said the strippers would be running up the Hudson. He took me to the Spuyten Duyvil metro north railroad station. 1979 was a different time so we walked across unfenced track beds and electrified rails and arrived at the most unattractive stretch of garbage strewn shore I’ve ever seen. The rats were so plentiful that it made the Willard movie look like a Disney classic. My friend was a degreed environmentalist. He told me to just gently kick out your foot and the rats would scatter. He said we, to them, were rats too big to mess with, it took me a while to pick up on the irony. He and I rigged up and then came the bait. Soft shell crabs, tied around a rather large hook. He used a special string and I’ll damned if I remember the name of it, I believe the tide was incoming. He told me get a bit closer to the waters edge but to be mindful of the slippery moss on the wet rocks. He said you do not cast out. You just gently plop the line a few feet from shore and let the hook settle in the rocks. He said the strippers will sense the bait go for it and your hook and he was right. Not a minute after I did as instructed a stripper took the bait. Surprised and elated, I took a miss step, forgot about the moss and became briefly airborne landing amongst a swarm of Willards relatives. Apparently they didn’t like Italian food so they scattered. I held on to the pole for dear life. My friends concern for my fall was only overshadowed by his uproarious laughter. I managed, listening to his patient instructions, to land it. It was 20 to 24 inches I believe. Several more were caught that evening. Since river pollution was extreme at that time he gave me some professional advice. He said look at the fish, in the light, if you detect a red/orange sheen throw it back, it’s contaminated. A greenish sheen is what you want to see. Sure enough half the catch was thrown back. I remember bringing it home to my beautiful young wife and she being the typical servile Italian spouse said sweetly to me. Get that thing out of my kitchen, take it to your mother and ask her to deal with it. I did and my mom made a stuffed stripe bass I will never forget. My lost Vicenza knew she could not prepare it the way my mom could so she actually, with love, gave me the easy way out. To this day I will never forget how wonderful that meal was. My apologies for the length of the memory. I may be invited, by the Moderators, to join the S19 limit club but mine will be for words. As always ....

Thank you for the kind words. It was a successful trip. 

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23 hours ago, bluewave said:

This record ridge with lower dew points and light winds is setting up an unusual temperature pattern for us. We get record highs during the day and strong radiational cooling at night. Quite a departure from our typical record warm minimums.

Impressive diurnal swings for sure.  Must be even more impressive in the center of the island, but here's the last 3 days at my hacienda about a mile from the sound:

11/7   43    76

11/8   44    77

11/9   42    77

This afternoon's 77 degree high a couple of hours ago is already down to 59 here.  You can be sweating and then a half hour later around sunset be freezing.

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58 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Impressive diurnal swings for sure.  Must be even more impressive in the center of the island, but here's the last 3 days at my hacienda about a mile from the sound:

11/7   43    76

11/8   44    77

11/9   42    77

This afternoon's 77 degree high a couple of hours ago is already down to 59 here.  You can be sweating and then a half hour later around sunset be freezing.

Portions of Long Island are getting diurnal swings similar to Elko, Nevada in late September.

Almanac for Elko Area, NV (ThreadEx)
September 27, 2020
Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest
Max Temperature 72 74 91 in 2010 43 in 1923
Min Temperature 34 35 51 in 1989 13 in 1889



C7CF4F9D-BFF9-457B-970B-7B3D5088BB03.png.e817c29fc9b822460617ec40f36273d5.png

9CF008C1-16A9-4ED1-A099-39C0E13AF9A5.png.35fb3c32ad249bfed5f7790ce85a6c56.png

 

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Under abundant sunshine, record high temperatures fell across the northeastern United States and parts of southern Canada. High temperatures included:

Atlantic City: 76° (tied daily record set in 1986)
Baltimore: 77° (old record: 75°, 1994)
Bangor: 68° (old record: 65°, 1938)
Binghamton: 71° (old record: 66°, 1975 and 2009)
Buffalo: 76° (old record: 70°, 1891)
Burlington: 71° (old record: 68°, 2011)
Caribou: 69° (old record: 64°, 1996) ***New November Record***
Chibougamau, Quebec: 62° (old record: 51°, 1945)
Chicago: 76° (old record: 74°, 1999)
Cleveland: 76° (old record: 74°, 1931 and 1975)
Concord: 75° (old record: 74°, 1945)
Detroit: 77° (old record: 75°, 1999)
Harrisburg: 76° (old record: 75°, 1895)
Hartford: 74°
Islip: 74° (old record: 73°, 1975)
Manchester, NH: 75° (old record: 71°, 2009)
Milwaukee: 76° (old record: 75°, 1999)
Montreal 67° (tied daily record set in 1945)
New York City-JFK: 74° (old record: 73°, 1975 and 1994)
New York City-LGA: 78° (old record: 72°, 1945 and 1986)
New York City-NYC: 75° (tied daily record set in 1975)
Newark: 77° (old record: 75°, 1975)
Ottawa: 72° (old record: 65°, 2009 and 2011)
Philadelphia: 75°
Poughkeepsie: 78° (old record: 75°, 1975)
Providence: 75° (old record: 74°, 1945)
Rochester: 77° (old record: 74°, 1931 and 1999)
Rockford, IL: 77° (old record: 74°, 1999)
Scranton: 75° (old record: 72°, 1975)
Syracuse: 77° (old record: 74°, 1931)
Toledo: 80° (old record: 74°, 1999) ***Tied November Record; Latest 80° Temperature***
Washington, DC: 75°
Westhampton: 72° (old record: 68°, 2006)
White Plains: 75° (old record: 71°, 1975)
Worcester: 74° (old record: 71°, 1945)

Tomorrow will be another very warm day with temperatures reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s. Afterward, the region could experience a significant rainfall during Wednesday and Thursday as moisture from Eta gets drawn northward along a slowly advancing cold front. In the wake of the frontal passage, readings will become cooler, but remain somewhat warmer than normal. Overall, the above normal temperatures will likely continue until at least near mid-November. The second half of November is likely to wind up warmer than normal, even as it could start with near or even slightly below normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.5°C for the week centered around November 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter.

The SOI was +2.48.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.442.

On November 8 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.992 (RMM). The November 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.220.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region.

The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°.

 

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20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Portions of Long Island are getting diurnal swings similar to Elko, Nevada in late September.

Almanac for Elko Area, NV (ThreadEx)
September 27, 2020
Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest
Max Temperature 72 74 91 in 2010 43 in 1923
Min Temperature 34 35 51 in 1989 13 in 1889



C7CF4F9D-BFF9-457B-970B-7B3D5088BB03.png.e817c29fc9b822460617ec40f36273d5.png

9CF008C1-16A9-4ED1-A099-39C0E13AF9A5.png.35fb3c32ad249bfed5f7790ce85a6c56.png

 

Appropriate that you mentioned Elko as the example because I was thinking high desert as I was posting. 

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5 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Impressive diurnal swings for sure.  Must be even more impressive in the center of the island, but here's the last 3 days at my hacienda about a mile from the sound:

11/7   43    76

11/8   44    77

11/9   42    77

This afternoon's 77 degree high a couple of hours ago is already down to 59 here.  You can be sweating and then a half hour later around sunset be freezing.

Center island saying hello. 

77/39 here today!

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The next 8 days are averaging 58degs.[53/62].        Making it 53degs., or about +6.0.

Month to date is 56.1[+5.1].        Should be near 54.7[+5.7] by the 18th.       We will be moving at a record pace.      Rest of November looks like a train wreck.   Just a few 36-hour frontal passage cool downs.  You can roast the Holiday turkey outside.

Total rain by next Monday PM:   GFS 1.7", EURO 2.4", CMC 3.2".

Tropics:   22.9N  85.5W-just nw of Cuba's western end.        29.1N  38.W---record breaker for total # of storms.

58*(90%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue.   60*(82%RH) by 9am.       65*(76%RH) by 11am.         66* by 1pm.      68* by 2pm, cumulus clouds dotting sky.     69* at 2:15pm.       70* at 2:30pm., made it.      71*(72%RH) at 3pm.      72* at 3:15pm.      69* at 4pm.    65* at 5pm.       63* by 11pm.

 

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