November 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[LibertyBell]

On 11/6/2020 at 9:35 AM, bluewave said:

Models continuing with near record 500 mb positive height anomalies for November this weekend. The November record for the NYC area is 589dm from the SPC sounding climo site. So an unusually warm November weekend coming up.

 

 

 

How does this compare to the November 1993 heat where we hit 72 and 80?

 

[LibertyBell]

On 11/6/2020 at 8:01 AM, snowman19 said:

The new Euro seasonal is as ugly as it gets. Dec-Mar are a total disaster

I thought you said that while winter would be pretty mild, shorter wavelengths in March mean we'd probably have a turnaround by then?

 

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a new record high for JFK. The most recent record high was set back in 2015.

Kennedy Intl   MOSUNNY   72  47  40 SW9  

11/7

70 in 2015

66 in 2001

66 in 1975

 

 

72 at JFK!  No seabreeze!  How does this compare to the November 14-15 period in 1993 at JFK?

 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Detroit also comes out close to normal (wide variation year-to-year) among the EPO+/AO+ cases I referenced in last evening’s post. 

With storminess very likely in any nina, im sure we will get our share of snow, but I expect wild swings.

[LibertyBell]

On 11/7/2020 at 8:06 AM, bluewave said:

Newark needs to keep the November 70° day streak going through Monday for the new record. 1938, 1982,1975, and 1994 all had 4 consecutive days. So Newark needs to reach at least 5 consecutive days for the new November record.

2020-11-05	70
2020-11-06	73

 

1938-11-05	75
1938-11-06	72
1938-11-07	78
1938-11-08	72

 

1975-11-07	71
1975-11-08	76
1975-11-09	75
1975-11-10	70

 

1982-11-01	77
1982-11-02	79
1982-11-03	74
1982-11-04	72

 

1994-11-03	71
1994-11-04	79
1994-11-05	76
1994-11-06	71

illustrative to note you get record heat like this in both el ninos and la ninas.

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, CIK62 said:

I like the November 1975 Heatwave:   Starting Nov. 02>>>   68,74,78,73,65,71,76,75,67,63.      The last two weeks of October had been warm too.     There were four more scattered 60's before the month ended        The first 32 or less after this was on December 02.        We went sub-zero in  January 1976 despite this or perhaps because of it.  lol.

Two or up to four more 70's coming up this go-round.

November 1993 heat was superior....check out 14 and 15.

 

[snowman19]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought you said that while winter would be pretty mild, shorter wavelengths in March mean we'd probably have a turnaround by then?

 

We still might. Just saying what the Euro shows, doesn’t mean it’s definitely happening. Still a possibility 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We still might. Just saying what the Euro shows, doesn’t mean it’s definitely happening. Still a possibility 

I agree with that but the turnaround may be muted.  I dont believe March will have 10" or more of snow and wont be enough to get us to average.

 

[SnoSki14]

We're gonna get very close to 80F today. 

If it can happen in Feb it can def happen in Nov.

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

We're gonna get very close to 80F today. 

If it can happen in Feb it can def happen in Nov.

A few 79's already

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How does this compare to the November 1993 heat where we hit 72 and 80?

 

November 1993 was a much cooler month. Only 1 day of real warmth around the 15th with NYC reaching 80° and JFK 77°. NYC finished +1.1 and JFK -0.7. 

[Intensewind002]

Currently at 75, but reach 76 for the high a couple of hours ago

[Cfa]

79 here. I’m shocked.

[bluewave]

Pretty impressive for ISP to beat their daily record high set in 2011 by 6 degrees.

 

[Rjay]

Been 77 here the past 3 hours

[doncat]

75° here today was record for date, coming off a low of 45°.

[KEITH L.I]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

November 1993 was a much cooler month. Only 1 day of real warmth around the 15th with NYC reaching 80° and JFK 77°. NYC finished +1.1 and JFK -0.7. 

93 was pretty mild through November.December 93 turned colder especially from the 20th on which was perfect timing

[LibertyBell]

What's this about an earthquake in Long Island Sound, Mag 4?  Did anyone feel it?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Pretty impressive for ISP to beat their daily record high set in 2011 by 6 degrees.

 

Did JFK get to 77, Chris, or higher?

 

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Did JFK get to 77, Chris, or higher?

 

2 record highs in a row for JFK.

 

 

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, doncat said:

75° here today was record for date, coming off a low of 45°.

75 for the high after a low of 37 up here 

[bluewave]

45 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

93 was pretty mild through November.December 93 turned colder especially from the 20th on which was perfect timing

Those were the old days when we would get a cold October before a cold winter.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2 record highs in a row for JFK.

 

 

I went to see the tweet and found out Alex Trebek just passed away :-(

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

Those were the old days when we would get a cold October before a cold winter.

and mild Novembers after cold Octobers meant snowy winters (6/6 preceding 50"+ winters up to 93-94)

 

[donsutherland1]

Under bright sunshine, the region saw near record and record warm temperatures. At Central Park, the temperature rose to 75°. At Islip, the temperature reached a record 76° and Newark saw a record 77° high temperature.

Overall, the weather was perfect for enjoying the fall colors. Five photos from the New York Botanical Garden:

One short video clip along the Bronx River at the New York Botanical Garden:

 

[Allsnow]

Anyone fishing? Going out tomorrow for striped bass. 

[sferic]

23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under bright sunshine, the region saw near record and record warm temperatures. At Central Park, the temperature rose to 75°. At Islip, the temperature reached a record 76° and Newark saw a record 77° high temperature.

Overall, the weather was perfect for enjoying the fall colors. Five photos from the New York Botanical Garden:

One short video clip along the Bronx River at the New York Botanical Garden:

 

Stunning photos as usual !

[bluewave]

This record ridge with lower dew points and light winds is setting up an unusual temperature pattern for us. We get record highs during the day and strong radiational cooling at night. Quite a departure from our typical record warm minimums.

 

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's going to be weird. The typical strong Nina caveats may not play out either due to differences in the Pacific & Atlantic vs typical Nina years. 

We’ll probably have a better idea as we head toward December. If the polar vortex strengthens toward December, that could provide a strong clue as to the likely predominant state of the AO.

[donsutherland1]

Today saw more widespread near record and record warm temperatures. High temperatures included:

Albany: 72°
Allentown: 77° (old record: 74°, 1975)
Atlantic City: 79° (old record: 72°, 1975, 2009, and 2011)
Baltimore: 78°
Boston: 70°
Bridgeport: 72° (old record: 71°, 1975)
Burlington: 72°
Chicago: 76° (old record: 73°, 1931)
Cleveland: 77° (old record: 72°, 1879, 1881, and 1945)
Detroit: 73° (old record: 71°, 1915)
Harrisburg: 75°
Hartford: 75°
Islip: 76° (old record: 70°, 2011)
New York City: 75°
Newark: 77° (old record: 76°, 1975)
Philadelphia: 76°
Pittsburgh: 74°
Providence: 75° (old record: 73°, 1945)
Poughkeepsie: 76° (old record: 73°, 1975)
Washington, DC: 74°

In the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, the above and much above normal temperatures will likely continue until at least near mid-November. The first half of the month will likely wind up much warmer than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.7°C for the week centered around October 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter.

The SOI was +13.36.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.195.

On November 7 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.229 (RMM). The November 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.047.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region.

The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°.